What’s up, FAnation! It is Tuesday, and we are gifted with the return of the Road to Rio event! We are still in the round-robin best of three series for the group stage where we will have the 1st and 2nd placed teams that will advance to the upper-bracket, with the teams finishing in 3rd of 4th will be entered into the lower bracket. The winners of each bracket will both then be birthed into the playoffs for a double-elimination best of three series. The Grand final will be a best of five for the two teams that make it to the end! So, hopefully you guys are enjoying these FREE articles, and cashing in with me as well! Follow me @smitchell17 on Twitter if you have not already. Let’s get to it!!
Game 1
Heretics (Ranked 30th in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 26th in World)
For this best of three series, Complexity comes in as the vegas favorite to win this match at a 2.30-to-1 clip. However, I have not been overly enthused by the performances lately of Complexity, and I have been very impressed with the play of Heretics as of late. Heretics have a three-headed monster of a squad in Nivera, Maka, Lucky, and even KiOshiMa has been playing very well also. Complexity comes in losers of two of their last three, I must say they have had some good competition in the likes of Astralis, who they took the distance with three maps before losing 1-2, however losing to Vitality as well in their most recent match by a final result of 1-2 also. Heretics come into this match in great form, winning three of their last five, and their last match against ENCE was a 2-0 and pure domination, let us not forgot ENCE just 2-0 swept Fnatic also in their prior match before being swept by Heretics. Complexity is going to need one of their best players in blameF to really get back on track, as he had quite a bit of a rough outing against Vitality in their previous match. It was basically left on K0nfig’s shoulders, and he was not able to pull the load. I believe if he comes in half-asleep as he did last match that they were swept, this will result in another sweep for Heretics. Heretics have beat three pretty solid teams back-to-back-to-back in ENCE, Dignitias (old-school OGs), and SKADE. These two squads have not faced off in recent memory, so this is a fresh look.
Looking at the map analysis, it seems that Complexity will look to take one of Heretic’s stronger maps away in Vertigo, which is being banned by Complexity at a 45% clip, and we can also see that Heretics are not a big fan of Train, as they have banned this map over 85% of their recent matches. As far as first map picks goes, Complexity is choosing Mirage as their first map pick at a 55% clip lately and winning this map 64% of the time over their last 11 tries. Now, it would see like good numbers there of course, but Heretics have won this may in three of their last five tries, so not just a huge edge there in my opinion. Inferno has been Heretics first map pick around 40% of the time recently, and both squads are split on this map with both winning 5 of their last 10 trips here. So, for these reasons stated, I have to give Heretics the edge at the current moment, as I don’t think the first pick for Complexity has been a home-run lately. So, with that said, I believe the third map could also be the decider, and if so it will be down to Dust2, Overpass, and Nuke. Also here, I must give the edge to Heretics, as they have won 5 of their last 6 on Dust2, have won all three of their prior matches in Overpass, and have won 6 of their last 8 tries at Nuke. So, I am going to be siding here with my boys in the Heretics. Let’s talk player options.
HERETICS
ANCHOR: Maka – (1.49 Rating 2.0 for this event so far, 1.21 over last month, along with a 0.58 Deaths per Round, 71.4 Kill-Asst%, 1.32 IMPACT, 77.4 ADR, and 0.74 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: Maka, Nivera, KioShiMa, and Lucky (I honestly think even xms is in play for value)
COMPLEXITY
ANCHOR: k0nfig – (1.07 Rating 2.0 over last month, 0.98 IMPACT, 0.77 Kills per Round, 78.8 ADR, 71 Kill-Asst%)
Top Stacking Options: k0nfig, oBo, blameF, (poizon for value)
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Game 2
Astralis (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Vitality (Ranked 9th in World)
Think seeing that Heretics 2-0 swept Vitality last match as a pretty big dog definitely speaks volumes of how good Heretics have played so far in this event. Now, Vitality gets a way tougher match-up, however Astralis is coming off a defeat from Fnatic in their most recent match as a 1-2 result transpired. These two teams are not strangers to each other and have faced off twice already in 2020. Astralis came out the victor in both matches and has now won three of their last four prior matches. Astralis comes in as a pretty hefty 3.8-to-1 favorite to win this match, and for good reason. Astralis is a damn good team, and Vitality just got swept by Heretics. These two squads have played ten games in four matches with Astralis winning seven of the ten. In their prior two matches this year, vitality did take them to OT twice in the five games, but in the three losses for Vitality, they failed to reach double-digit round wins, and that is pretty concerning if you are a Vitality fan. As for their previous matches, Astralis had won three of their prior four before the 1-2 decision to Fnatic, while Vitality barely slipped past Complexity for the 2-1 win, however, has lost their prior three before that win. I hate to even go over the map analysis, as it doesn’t bode well for anyone but Astralis here. So, going to jump right into the player options, and if you don’t know who I am favoring in this match up to win, then I cannot help you.
ASTRALIS
ANCHOR: device – (likely one of the highest priced players on the slate, and for good reason – 1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.76 Kills per Round, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMPACT, 79.4 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: device, dupreeh, Magisk (Xyp9x is value)
VITALITY
ACHOR: ZywhOo – (1.26 Rating 2.0 for event, 1.20 for past 3 months – 0.75 Kills per Round, 0.62 Deaths per Round, 72.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.21 IMPACT, 80.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: ZyWhOo, apex, shox, (RpK for value)
Game 3
Movistar Riders (Ranked 32nd in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 8th in World)
If I’ve said it once, ill say it a hundred more times, if you want a match where it will more than likely end 14-16, or have an OT or two on each map, and likely see three maps, then FaZe is your squad. These guys helped me win a bunch of money on Sunday, so they have a special place in my heart. They only played two maps against G2, but they saw a total of three OTs in those maps, and my top player in Broky went off pretty nicely. I truly don’t expect much of a different match here with the Movistar Riders for this slate. Movistar Riders are fresh off a 2-0 sweep of the 4th ranked team in the World of Mousesports, and more recently won a close 2-1 decision over c0ntact on Sunday as well, so they are coming into this match riding quite the high horse. FaZe has won three of their last five as well, with two of those matches being resolved by a 2-0 sweep. FaZe is a really good team, and they are great at playing CSGO, but for some reason they can never close teams out. They get big leads in games, will be up 5-7 rounds, and then bam, they lose 5 back in a row. Its inevitable, BUT this is lovely from a fantasy perspective. The 2-0 sweeps are fine when you get a couple OTs and high-scoring affairs, but if its close, and you don’t have guys balling out with 25+ kills, it is not great for fantasy. FaZe comes in as a 7-to-1 favorite here to win this match, so they are by far the biggest favorite on the slate, which doesn’t make you feel really comfy, for the reasons stated above. For the map analysis, the only maps that Movistar has done better on recently than FaZe is Inferno and Train. FaZe is picking Mirage as their first map pick, and winning it 90% of the time recently, while Movistar is picking Overpass as their first pick mainly, however, are only winning at a 54% clip lately, unto which FaZe has won this map at 50% recently, so not exactly a choice map per say. Obviously, edge here is FaZe, and its not exactly that close. Let’s get to the player options.
MOVISTAR RIDERS
ANCHOR: alex – (1.08 Rating 2.0 over last month, 0.70 Kills per Round, 1.21 IMPACT, 77.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: alex, steel, loWel
FAZE
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Going back to NiKo today, as he has just been so good lately – 1.24 Rating 2.0 over last month, with also 0.66 Deaths per Round, 72.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.31 IMPACT, 0.81 Kills per Round!, 88.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Broky, Coldzera
Game 4
Cloud9 (Ranked 24th in World) vs Evil Geniuses (Ranked 7th in World)
I will be flat out honest, if Cloud9 messes around any in this match, they will get waxed off the map. I have not been impressed with how Cloud9 has played lately, and it has just not been good. They have literally been winning by the skin of their teeth, as they beat Orgless in a close match 2-1 in their last match but lost 1-2 in the match before to a pretty mediocre Triumph team. EG is fresh off a loss to 100 Thieves, but I am not giving much to that match, as 100T is a very good squad. I believe this will easily be the biggest test so far of this event for Cloud9, and let’s not forget Cloud9 had to win a qualifier just to get into the Road to Rio. These two squads don’t have any recent history, but looking at past competition, it favors EG quite a bit, as they have faced off against teams like 100T, Team Liquid (twice), and also FURIA, all in their last five matches. Cloud9 has had quite the cake-walk coming up to this match, and just played Orgless barely winning 2-1, a team that EG swept 2-0 two matches ago. Vegas agrees here, as they have EG listed as a 3-to-1 favorite to win this match, and honestly, I think it is a bit short. I just don’t have much confidence in C9 here, and if Floppy, oSee, or motm all don’t have great games, they won’t win this match.
For the map analysis, it is quite funny to note that both teams here have been picking Inferno as their first pick lately, and both are winning over 60% of their recent tries there. So, Inferno could likely be a huge map in determining if C9 will have a chance. C9 is banning Mirage, a map that EG doesn’t mind letting go, as they have only won 33% of recent tries there, and EG is banning Overpass, in which is C9’s best map! The only other map that C9 has had better luck on than EG lately is Dust2, and its quite the margin as C9 has one three of their last four there, while EG has one only two of their last eight tries there. However, Vertigo, Train, and Nuke all favor EG. Let’s talk player options.
CLOUD9
ANCHOR: Floppy – (Floppy is easily the best player on this squad, and it’s not close – 1.22 Rating 2.0 fo this event, 0.76 Kills per Round, 1.19 IMPACT, 71.9 Kill-Asst%, 83.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Floppy, oSee, motm
EVIL GENIUSES
ANCHOR: Brehze – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.77 Kills per Round, 1.09 IMPACT, 71.5 Kill-Asst%, 80.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Brehze, CerQ, Ethan (Tarik for value)
Game 5
Gen.G (Ranked 23rd in World) vs Orgless (Ranked 34th in World)
Here we have two pretty evenly matched squads that are more overall talented teams than just having a couple major studs on each. Both of these teams are generally good, Orgless has not had a good run of schedule lately, as they have dropped four of their last five, two to Cloud9 as well, with the other being Evil Geniuses, and MiBR, both very good teams. Gen.G has the edge here as an overall squad. They come in winning three of their last four, two of those by the 2-0 sweep, with their losses coming to HAVU 1-2 and Cloud9 by the 0-2 sweep. These two have met once this year so far, and it was a 2-0 sweep at the hands of Gen.G as a result. Per the betting odds, Gen.G comes in as a 2.85-to-1 favorite to come away with the victory, and not to mention every player option on Gen.G has a Rating 2.0 over 1.0 for the event, while Orgless is only showcasing three with that rating or higher. Gen.G has just been playing at a higher level lately, and I do think they get the win here, and could maybe even 2-0 sweep Orgless.
For map analysis, the two ban picks for these squads is Overpass (Gen.G) and Vertigo (Org). I am sure neither are too awfully worried about letting these go, as neither have a big edge on one or the other. I believe it will come down to Gen.G’s typical first pick of mirage, where they have both won above 65% of their recent matches, and then Orgless first map pick of Train, where Gen.G has actually had a better win-rate as of late. Every other map in play after being Dust2, Inferno, and Nuke, ALL favor Gen.G as well. Locking in the Gen.G for the win here and could see a 2-0 as well. Let’s talk player options.
GEN.G
ANCHOR: Koosta – (1.15 Rating 2.0, 0.72 Kills per Round, 71.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMPACT, 81.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Koosta, BnTeT, Autimatic, (s0m for value)
ORGLESS
ANCHOR: Infinite – (1.15 Rating 2.0, 0.75 Kills per Round, 71.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Infinite, WARDELL, yay (subroza for value)
Game 6
100 Thieves (Ranked 10th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 35th in World)
Hate to be a backer of the favorite yet again here, but this is another match that just seems lob-sided. Triumph is a team that has two add-ons that haven’t really played a ton with this new team make-up. Curry and Junior have added some nice depth, and have competed with a few teams so far this event, but are just not there talent-wise to compete with a team like 100T. Not saying 100T is amazing by any means, but their losses have been to teams such as Gen.G, FURIA, MiBR, and Liquid lately. Triumph has lost to Gen.G also, swept by Swole Patrol, and 1-2 result loss to Bad News Bears. Triumph did beat Cloud9 two matches ago, so props given there, but other than that, I am not a fan of this Triumph team and I think we could see them easily get ousted 2-0 here against 100T. The betting odds at the current moment also agree with this logic, as they have 100T set as a 5.5-to-1 favorite to win this match with Triumph. Map analysis is not in need here – it favors 100T also. Let’s get right to the player options.
100T
ANCHOR: Gratisfaction – (1.11 Rating 2.0 over last month online, with 0.72 Kills per Round, 70.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.12 IMPACT, 76.6 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Gratisfaction, jks, jkaem
TRIUMPH
ANCHOR: Grim – (May look like Harry Potter but the kid can play CGSO – 1.18 Rating 2.0 last month online, with 0.79 Kills per Round, 1.16 IMPACT, 74.5 Kill-Asst%, 85.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, Junior, Curry (Shakezullah if need salary relief)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Maka, NiKo, Device, ZywhOo, Gratisfaction (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: FaZe, Heretics, Evil Geniuses, Gen.G, 100T, Astralis (ranked in order)
Top Values (At or Under $7K salary): Coldzera, Ethan, Infinte, loWel, steel, apex, kioShiMa,
**TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PROPS:
1.) Rapid Fire - (First Map of Astralis vs Vitality):
-ZywhOo +1.5 Kills Over Device
-Magisk +0.5 Kills Over Dupreeh
Pays 2.5 to 1
2.) More/Less - (First Map of FaZe vs Movistar Riders):
-Eastor UNDER 16.5 Kills
-Coldzera UNDER 18.5 Kills