CS:GO DFS Playbook: Flashpoint3 – 5.23.2021 (2-Match)

Astralis (Ranked 4th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -115/Mouse -110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three upper-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.

*Astralis For Event: Xyp9x 1.24 Rating, Magisk 1.19, Bubzkji 1.11, gla1ve 1.06, dupreeh 1.03.

*Astralis For Last Month (12 Maps): Magisk 1.14 Rating, Bubzkji 1.09, Xyp9x 1.06, dupreeh 0.98, gla1ve 0.96.

*Mouse For Event: ropz 1.44 Rating, dexter 1.37, acoR 1.36, frozen 1.34, Bymas 1.20.

*Mouse For Last Month (35 Maps): ropz 1.20 Rating, frozen 1.17, acoR 1.13, Bymas 1.10, dexter 1.05.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played so far in 2021 with Astralis sweeping the match with wins of 16-12 on Inferno and 16-8 on Nuke.

*Top Performers For Astralis (2 Maps): gla1ve +15 K-D Diff, 1.31 Rating, 79.2 ADR. dupreeh +14 K-D Diff, 1.23 Rating, 82.6 ADR (device was still on roster and he went +22 K-D Diff).

*Top Performers For Mouse (2 Maps): No positive stat-lines for sample.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for Mouse and Mirage for Astralis. I think we see Nuke for Mousesports and Inferno for Astralis for this match.

*Mouse on Nuke (10 Maps): frozen 1.24 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 87.1 ADR. ropz 1.21, dexter 1.05, acoR 1.03, Bymas 0.99. On Inferno (6 Maps): ropz 1.34 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 89.7 ADR. frozen 1.22, acoR 1.20, dexter 1.03, Bymas 1.01.

*Astralis on Inferno (9 Maps): Magisk 1.02 Rating, 0.58 KPR, 0.89 IMP, 67.0 ADR. gla1ve 1.02, dupreeh 0.95, Bubzjki 0.95, Xyp9x 0.91. On Nuke (6 Maps): Magisk 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 84.0 ADR. Bubzkji 1.09, Xyp9x 1.04, dupreeh 0.98, gla1ve 0.96.

Analysis: I really like the revenge spot here for Mouse as Astralis swept them last time they played in IEM Katowice. Both teams come into this one on win streaks, with Mouse winning and sweeping their last three over BIG, fnatic, and Complexity. Three solid wins and sweeps. Books are basically making this match a pick em on the odds, and I am rolling with Mouse here as their numbers have been quite a bit better individually lately.

 

G2 (Ranked 5th in World) @ NiP (Ranked 15th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -195/NiP +145

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -102/Under -130

*This is a best of three upper-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.

*G2 For Event: NiKo 1.42 Rating, huNter 1.16, AmaNEk 1.13, nexa 1.04, JaCkz 1.01.

*G2 For Last Month (30 Maps): NiKo 1.24 Rating, huNter 1.12, AmaNEk 0.99, nexa 0.98, JaCkz 0.96.

*NiP For Event: REZ 1.18 Rating, Plopski 1.15, device 1.06, hampus 0.93, ztr 0.87.

*NiP For Last Month (See Above)

H2H DATA:

*These two teams played once at ESL Pro League with G2 sweeping with results of 22-19 on Mirage and 16-11 on Inferno. (Device did not play for NiP here)

*Top Performers For NiP (2 Maps): REZ +16 K-D Diff, 1.35 Rating, 79.4 ADR.

*Top Performers For G2 (2 Maps): huNter +11 K-D Diff, 1.15 Rating, 82.2 ADR. nexa +3 K-D Diff, 1.07 Rating, 67.7 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for NiP. I believe we see Mirage for G2 and Inferno for NiP.

*G2 on Mirage (14 Maps): huNter 1.19 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 86.7 ADR. NiKo 1.09, AmaNEk 1.01, nexa 1.00, JaCkz 0.95. On Inferno (11 Maps): huNter 1.23 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 88.4 ADR. NiKo 1.15, AmaNEk 1.02, nexa 1.01, JaCkz 0.99.

*NiP on Inferno (9 Maps): REZ 1.16 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Plopski 1.10, device 1.04, hampus 0.88, ztr 0.80. On Mirage (8 Maps): REZ 1.16 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 82.2 ADR. hampus 1.16, Plopski 1.03, device 0.88, ztr 0.78.

Analysis: Going G2 here as they have had quite a bit better recent form in my opinion, and their numbers on the projected maps are solid. Also, they will take away NiP’s favorite map choice in Overpass, meaning they will choose a secondary map and I think this also benefits G2.

 

*TOP STACKS: G2, Mousesports

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ropz, frozen, niKo, huNter, device, dupreeh, Magisk, REZ

*TOP FLEX: Xyp9x, dexter, acoR, JaCkz, nexa, AmaNEk, Bubzkji, Plopski