Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets

Total: 226.5

Spread: DEN -1

The Blazers head into mile-high to kick-off the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets on Saturday night in a showdown!

Player News:

*Will Barton – OUT

*Austin Rivers – Questionable (Illness)

*P.J. Dozier – OUT

*Jamal Murray – OUT

*Zach Collins – OUT

Player Breakdowns

CPT/MVP

1.) Damian Lillard PG (POR) $17,100

Let’s take a shot on Dame here tonight as he actually carries better numbers against the Nuggets in the three meetings that took place in the regular season. Dame averaged a hefty 31.7% usage rate, 34.5 mpg, 23.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 9.3 apg, with two steals over that three-game span vs DEN. He dropped 43 fantasy points last time out against them, and 39 in the meeting before. I think we see Dame go for 40+ here tonight.

2.) CJ McCollum PG/SG (POR)  $14,700

Going super contrarian here, but McCollum has some really good numbers against the Nuggets this season. In two games against them, he averaged 34.6 mpg, 19.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, with three total steals and a modest 23.4% usage rate. Not to mention he has topped 37 fantasy points in five of his last seven road travels. Like the spot here for both guards of the Blazers.

MID-TIER

1.) Nikola Jokic C (DEN) $12,200

Of course, Jokic is in play at CPT/MVP if you would like, but honestly, I like the savings you get if going Dame or CJ. Jokic hasn’t exactly had booming numbers against the Blazers this season either, as he is averaging 29 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, with two steals and a block in 30.0 mpg in three meetings this season. Yes, it seems like good numbers, but for a guy that is going to need 50+ fantasy points to really move the needle, not to mention how chalky he will be, it doesn’t exactly translate out as well as expected. Now, we can likely rely on 35+ from Jokic, so getting his floor in the Flex I feel is the play and take the savings to get another decent player in our roster.

2.) Michael Porter Jr. SF/PF (DEN) $10,000

MPJ has been great at home lately and has topped 30 fantasy points in all seven of his last seven homes games played. He has put up 40+ fantasy points in five of those seven as well. However, he has only managed 14 and 26.3 fantasy points against the Blazers in their last two meetings, BUT they were both in Portland, so I like this a bit better with him performing much better in his home court lately.

3.) Jusuf Nurkic C (POR) $9,200

Nurk has been a little hit-or-miss lately, but he has put up some nice games as well. Nurk has topped 44 fantasy points in three of his last four games played, while also putting up 33+ fantasy points in five of his last eight road contests. He is more of a tournament play in my opinion, but he did just smash Denver last time out for 46 fantasy points and put up 27 the meeting before with them to boot.

VALUES

1.) Facundo Campazzo PG/SG (DEN) $6,800

Campazzo continues to start and play nice minutes with Jamal Murray on the shelf. Campazzo has also been a much player on his home floor much like Porter Jr lately. Facundo has recorded 37, 48, 22, 49, 24, and 33 fantasy points in his last six home contests. We all know that the PG spot is one of the worst-defending spots for the Blazers and they have been all season long.

2.) Paul Millsap PF/C (DEN) $3,800

I hate recommending old man Millsap more than just about anyone, but he has put up 18+ fantasy points in four of his last five games played, and has seen 17, 19, 27, and 24 minutes in four of his last five games to boot. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games played as well. He is punt-worthy tonight.

3.) Monte Morris PG/SG (DEN) $2,800

Monte is back and playing the reserve PG role as he generally does with some SG mixed in there. He was working himself into more minutes after returning from a decently lengthy injury prior to the last few games of the regular season, so he should be fully rested and healthy and ready to go here, and we want as much exposure of exploiting the PG spot against the Blazers as possible.