CS:GO DFS Playbook: Flashpoint 3 – 5.21.2021 (2-Match)

Vitality (Ranked 11th in World) @ FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -170/FPX +130

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round two match for Flashpoint 3.

*Vitality For Event: ZywOo 1.29 Rating, apEX 0.92, shox 0.85, misutaaa 0.81, Kyojin 0.79.

*Vitality For Last Month (12 Maps): ZywOo 1.46 Rating, apEX 0.98, shox 0.97, misutaaa 0.93, Kyojin 0.86.

*FPX For Event: Maden 1.32 Rating, zehN 1.16, Farlig 1.07, STYKO 0.99, emi 0.97.

*FPX For Last Month (13 Maps): zehN 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 86.8 ADR. Maden 1.21, STYKO 1.09, Farlig 1.04, emi 0.97.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches but did played twice in 2020 with different core players. Vitality did sweep both matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Mirage for FPX. I think we see Inferno for FPX and Dust2 for Vitality here.

*Vitality on Dust2 (5 Maps): ZywOo 1.53 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.63 IMP, 98.5 ADR. misutaaa 0.97, Kyojin 0.95, shox 0.93, apEX 0.93. On Inferno (5 Maps): shox 0.99 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.93 IMP, 72.2 ADR. ZywOo 0.90, apEX 0.82, misutaaa 0.79, Kyojin 0.79.

*FPX on Inferno (9 Maps): Maden 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 80.7 ADR. emi 1.11, zehN 1.07, STYKO 1.02, Farlig 0.95. On Dust2 (2 Maps): STYKO 1.27 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 85.1 ADR. zehN 1.05, Farlig 0.97, Maden 0.86.

Analysis: I really think we see this match go to three maps here. Vitality has not been great on Inferno and FPX has really played it well as of late. For these reasons, I think FPX, even though they got swept by NiP yesterday, they looked really good in those two maps and barely lost the second map after OT 19-17. They started off map one very slow too and made a huge like 9-round win comeback but fell short 16-12. I think they come fired up for this one and jump out quick. Going right back to the well on FPX here.

 

Complexity (Ranked 10th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 3rd in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -220/Complexity +165

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round two match for Flashpoint 3.

*Complexity For Event: poizon 1.23 Rating, blameF 1.11, k0nfig 1.08, jks 0.99, RUSH 0.96

*Complexity For Last Month (27 Maps): k0nfig 1.18 Rating, blameF 1.17, jks 1.05, poizon 0.95, RUSH 0.85.

*Heroic For Event: refrezh 1.14 Rating, stavn 1.13, sjuush 1.11, TeSeS 0.90, cadiaN 0.88.

*Heroic For Last Month (13 Maps): refrezh 1.16 Rating, stavn 1.14, sjuush 1.14, TeSeS 1.12, cadiaN 1.03.

H2H DATA:

*These two squads have played once in 2021 so far. Heroic won the match 2-1 with scores of 16-12 on Mirage and 16-14 on Nuke. Complexity won Train 16-10. Note: all very close maps.

*Top Performers for Complexity (3 Maps): k0nfig +2 K-D Diff, 1.05 Rating, 81.6 ADR.

*Top Performers for Heroic (3 Maps): refrezh +15 K-D Diff, 1.22 Rating, 85.8 ADR. stavn +4 K-D Diff, 1.03 Rating, 70.6 ADR. cadiaN +3 K-D Diff, 1.10 Rating, 69.8 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for Complexity and Dust2 for Heroic. I think we see Mirage for Complexity and Nuke for Heroic here.

*Heroic on Nuke (9 Maps): TeSeS 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 86.4 ADR. refrezh 1.24, stavn 1.16, sjuush 1.08, cadiaN 1.07. On Mirage (9 Maps): stavn 1.26 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 87.0 ADR. refrezh 1.19, cadiaN 1.15, sjuush 1.06, TeSeS 0.97.

*Complexity on Mirage (18 Maps): blameF 1.28 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 85.5 ADR. k0nfig 1.19, poizon 1.11, jks 1.03, RUSH 0.86. On Nuke (8 Maps): blameF 1.16 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 84.2 ADR. jks 1.13, k0nfig 1.10, poizon 1.08, RUSH 0.96.

Analysis: Books are heavy here on a Heroic bounce-back, but I love the spot here for Complexity, who is also in a revenge narrative after losing to Heroic in their last meeting at ESL Pro League. I think we all saw how bad Heroic looked yesterday against G2, and they got demolished on Mirage as the decider map in that match as well. I think Complexity can win this match. It may go three-maps, but I think it is Complexity 2-0 or 2-1 here.

 

*TOP STACKS: Complexity, FunPlus Phoenix

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, blameF, k0nfig, poizon, Maden, Farlig

*TOP FLEX: zehN, STYKO, emi, jks, shox, TeSeS, refrezh, RUSH