CS:GO DFS Playbook: Flashpoint 3 – 5.19.2021 (3-Match)

HYENAS (Ranked 163rd in World) @ Anonymo (Ranked 37th in World)

Betting Odds: Anonymo -225/HYENAS +170

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -135

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round 1 match for Flashpoint 3 Event.

*HYENAS For Event: Kjaerbye 1.12 Rating, b0RUP 1.01, Fessor 0.95, aizy 0.82, gade 0.70.

*HYENAS For Last Month (See above).

*Anonymo For Event: KEi 1.02 Rating, snax 1.00, mynio 1.00, Kylar 0.91, innocent 0.82.

*Anonymo For Last Month (50 Maps): KEi 1.14 Rating, Kylar 1.06, Snax 1.02, innocent 1.02, mynio 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for HYENAS and Dust2 for Anonmyo. I think we see Nuke for Anonmyo and Vertigo for HYENAS.

*HYENAS on Vertigo (1 Map): b0RUP 1.15 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.95 IMP, 98.6 ADR. aizy 1.15, Fessor 1.05, Kjaerbye 0.85, gade 0.84. On Nuke (No maps played).

*Anonmyo on Nuke (29 Maps): KEi 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 84.4 ADR. Snax 1.10, innocent 1.10, Kylar 1.08, mynio 0.98. On Vertigo (14 Maps): KEi 1.26 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 89.8 ADR. Kylar 1.16, Snax 1.07, mynio 1.06, innocent 1.01.

Analysis: I think Anonmyio is the clear favorite here for a reason. This HYENAS teams is literally a smash of ex-North, and drop-offs of other teams. Anonmyio should have likely beat NiP and got kind of shafted in that whole ordeal. They rate out well on both projected maps, and they have played well lately. Like Anon here.

 

DBL PONEY (Ranked 30th in World) @ Astralis (Ranked 4th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -435/DBL PONEY +300

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -170

*This is a best of three upper-bracket quarter-final match for the Flashpoint 3 Event.

*DBL PONEY For Event: Djoko 1.55 Rating, NBK- 1.39, afro 1.36, bodyy 1.25, Lucky 1.19.

*DBL PONEY For Last Month (49 Maps): afro 1.18 Rating, Lucky 1.12, Djoko 1.09, body 1.08, NBK- 1.01.

*Astralis For Event: Xyp9x 1.29 Rating, gla1ve 1.23, Magisk 1.09, Bubzkji 1.08, dupreeh 0.86.

*Astralis For Last Month (10 Maps): Magisk 1.11 Rating, Bubzkji 1.08, Xyp9x 1.04, gla1ve 0.98, dupreeh 0.93.

H2H DATA:

*These two squads have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Train for DBL PONEY. I think we see Nuke for DBL PONEY and Inferno for Astralis.

*Astralis on Inferno (10 Maps): gla1ve 1.04 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 74.4 ADR. Magisk 1.01, dupreeh 0.96, Bubzkji 0.95, Xyp9x 0.91. On Nuke (5 Maps): Magisk 1.25 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 85.5 ADR. Bubzkji 1.14, Xyp9x 1.00, gla1ve 0.99, dupreeh 0.94.

*DBL PONEY on Nuke (25 Maps): afro 1.17 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 74.2 ADR. Lucky 1.17, Djoko 1.16, NBK- 1.05, body 1.03. On Inferno (21 Maps): Lucky 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 78.4 ADR. body 1.11, afro 1.07, Djoko 1.05, NBK- 1.01.

Analysis: I really just do not see how Astralis is such a massive favorite in this match. They beat OG 2-0 in their most recent. WOW. This is not a great feat. I do understand that DBL PONEY hasn’t played much top-tier competition, but they did 2-0 Vitality four matches ago, and had won their prior five out of six by the 2-0 sweep. I think this match is much closer than the odds are saying, and I think DBL PONEY could easily take this to three maps and have a shot at winning. I think we see a 2-1 result here by either team. I do think it could by DBL PONEY.

 

BIG (Ranked 8th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Mousesports -140/BIG +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three upper-bracket quarter-final match for Flashpoint 3 Event.

*BIG For Event: tabseN 1.33 Rating, XANTARES 1.29, k1to 1.09, syrsoN 1.08, tiziaN 1.05.

*BIG For Last Month (36 Maps): XANTARES 1.16 Rating, syrsoN 1.11, tabseN 1.04, k1to 0.99, tiziaN 0.96.

*Mouse For Event: dexter 1.52 Rating, ropz 1.51, acoR 1.50, frozen 1.14, Bymas 1.05.

*Mouse For Last Month (33 Maps): ropz 1.19 Rating, frozen 1.15, acoR 1.13, Bymas 1.09, dexter 1.04.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played one best of three so far in 2021 back at the IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier with Mouse winning in a 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-12 on Dust2 and 16-13 on Nuke.

*Top Performers For Mouse (2 Maps): acoR +22 K-D Diff, 1.39 Rating, 89.2 ADR. ropz +6 K-D Diff, 1.21 Rating, 87.5 ADR.

*Top Performers For BIG (2 Maps): XANTARES +5 K-D Diff, 1.10 Rating, 74.9 ADR.

MAPS:

*The two likely first banned maps for this match should include Overpass for Mouse and Train for BIG. I think we see Dust2 for BIG and Nuke for Mouse.

*Mouse on Nuke (9 Maps): frozen 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 87.6 ADR. ropz 1.21, acoR 1.13, dexter 1.01, Bymas 0.96. On Dust2 (8 Maps): ropz 1.17 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 79.4 ADR. dexter 1.10, acoR 1.09, Bymas 1.06, frozen 0.92.

*BIG on Dust2 (14 Maps): XANTARES 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 78.9 ADR. syrsoN 1.17, k1to 1.14, tabseN 1.06, tiziaN 0.93. On Nuke (11 Maps): tabseN 1.11 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 89.1 ADR. XANTARES 1.07, syrsoN 0.98, tiziaN 0.88, k1to 0.85.

Analysis: I like BIG here. I think the odds are very close for a reason. Public perception seems to always love Mousesports and I know Ropz will be very high owned. Not saying he wont perform, but I do think that BIG can win this match. Also, this is quite a revenge spot for BIG after getting swept by Mouse last time they met. I am going a bit against the grain here and going with BIG.

 

*TOP STACKS: Anonymo, DBL PONEY, BIG

*TOP CPT PLAYS: XANTARES, KEi, Snax, syrsoN, tabseN, afro, Lucky, ropz

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: NBK-, k1to, Kylar, Xyp9x, Magisk, frozen, acoR, dexter, innocent, mynio