CS:GO DFS Playbook: Spring Sweet Spring 2 Regionals – 5.18.2021 (4-Match)

Wisla Krakow (Ranked 45th in World) @ Lyngby Vikings (Ranked 95th in World)

Betting Odds: Wisla Krakow -210/Lyngby Vikings +155

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -150

*This is a best of three swiss round two match for teams with a 1-0 record for Event.

*Wisla Krakow For Event: Markos 1.60 Rating, jedqr 1.39, Goofy 1.32, ponczek 1.21, SZPERO 1.08.

*Wisla Krakow For Last Month (11 Maps): Markos 1.29 Rating, jedqr 1.28, Goofy 1.28, ponczek 1.03, SZPERO 1.01.

*Lyngby Vikings For Event: J3nsyy 1.24 Rating, raalz 1.23, maNkz 1.20, Daffu 1.03, birdfromsky 0.99.

*Lyngby Vikings For Last Month (59 Maps): raalz 1.12 Rating, maNkz 1.11, J3nsyy 1.10, Daffu 1.05, birdfromsky 1.00.

H2H DATA:

*These two squads have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for Wisla Krakow and Train for Lyngby Vikings. I believe we see Inferno for the Vikings and Mirage for Wisla Krakow.

*Lyngby Vikings on Inferno (2 Maps): Daffu 1.14 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 80.7 ADR. raalz 1.07, maNkz 1.04, birdfromsky 1.01, J3nsyy 0.92. On Mirage (15 Maps): raalz 1.09 Rating, 0.73, 1.07 IMP, 76.5 ADR. J3nsyy 1.03, birdfromsky 0.98, Daffu 0.92, maNkz 0.86.

*Wisla Krakow on Mirage (15 Maps): jedqr 1.15 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 83.5 ADR. Goofy 1.12, Markso 1.08, SZPERO 0.99, ponczek 0.99. On Inferno (13 Maps): Markos (3 Maps) 1.48 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.57 IMP, 89.9 ADR. jedqr 1.15 Rating, Goofy 1.07, ponczek 0.98, SZPERO 0.96.

Analysis: I believe the Vikings will struggle a bit here as Wisla Krakow picked up a stud in Markos and are riding a three-match win streak with him joining. I think both teams will be utilizing a secondary map pick here, but I feel like Wisla has just a slight edge in the projected maps, and overall talent from the top to bottom of roster.

 

GamerLegion (Ranked 69th in World) @ NASR (Ranked 81st in World)

Betting Odds: GamerLegion -250/NASR +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160

*This is a best of three swiss round 2 match for teams with a 1-0 record for Event.

*GamerLegion For Event: RuStY 1.63 Rating, Zero 1.61, iM 1.35, isak 1.31, era 1.23.

*GamerLegion For Last Month (14 Maps): Zero 1.27 Rating, RuStY 1.19, iM 1.15, era 1.11, iask 1.11.

*NASR For Event: BOROS 1.19 Rating, REAL1ZE 1.12, EIZA 1.11, Bibu 0.99, gejmzilla 0.95.

*NASR For Last Month (12 Maps): BOROS 1.17 Rating, REAL1ZE 1.11, EIZA 1.08, Bibu 0.96, gejmzilla 0.91.

H2H DATA:

*These two squads have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for NASR and Inferno for GamerLegion. I think we see Dust2 for NASR and Mirage for GamerLegion.

*GamerLegion on Mirage (9 Maps): Zero 1.35 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 90.7 ADR. iM 1.24, RuStY 1.08, era 1.00, isak 0.86. On Dust2 (2 Maps): iM 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 85.1 ADR. isak 1.09, Zero 1.09, RuStY 0.90, era 0.84.

Analysis: GamerLegion added iM and that was a huge get for them as he was the carry mainly for Nexus. NASR has won back-to-back matches against both Tricked and Galaxy Racer and have now won three of their last four matches played. I think that GamerLegion has a bit better map pool, but I think that NASR recent form is a bit better. Odds have GL as a 2.5-to-1 favorite in this match. I think that number is a bit high. I do think you can get some dog value out of NASR here, but I could see a GL 2-1 win.

 

KOVA (Ranked 90th in World) @ hREDS (Ranked 106th in World)

Betting Odds: KOVA -155/hREDS +120

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three swiss round two match for teams with a 0-1 record for Event.

*KOVA For Event: Spargo 1.13 Rating, Twixie 1.10, pietola 1.00, uli 0.96, Airax 0.92.

*KOVA For Last Month (25 Maps): Twixie 1.07 Rating, uli 1.05, Spargo 1.05, pietola 0.97, Airax 0.90.

*hREDS For Event: oopee 1.12 Rating, xartE 1.08, eDi 0.93, Samppa 0.91, Sm1llee 0.90.

*hREDS For Last Month (14 Maps): oopee 1.12 Rating, xartE 1.07, Sm1llee 0.99, eDi 0.96, Samppa 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played four times so far in 2021 with both teams splitting two wins a piece. All FOUR of the matches went three-full maps.

*Top Performers For KOVA (12 Maps): Twixie +17 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.12 Rating. Spargo +3 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.00 Rating. pietola +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.01 Rating.

*Top Performers For hREDS (12 Maps): Samppa +40 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.17 Rating. xartE +23 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.09 Rating. eDi +12 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.11 Rating. oopee +3 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for KOVA and Mirage for hREDS. I think we see Inferno for hREDS and Train for KOVA.

*hREDS on Inferno (6 Maps): eDi 1.15 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 74.9 ADR. oopee 1.12, Samppa 1.08, xartE 1.03, Sm1llee 0.92. On Train (4 Maps): oopee 1.31 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.49 IMP, 91.7 ADR. eDi 1.24, xartE 1.19, Sm1llee 1.14, Samppa 0.85.

*KOVA on Train (16 Maps): Spargo 1.11 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 71.0 ADR. uli 1.07, Twixie 1.06, Airax 1.06, pietola 0.89. On Inferno (17 Maps): uli 1.13 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 80.6 ADR. Twixie 1.02, Spargo 0.95, pietola 0.91, Airax 0.82.

Analysis: If the pattern holds true, KOVA will win this match 2-1. hREDS easily has the better numbers in the head-to-head category, so likely may want to look at them for targeting in DFS. I think this match could be a stack candidate as all four of their last four meetings went the full distance.

 

Fiend (Ranked 32nd in World) @ Izako Boars (Ranked 46th in World)

Betting Odds: Fiend -215/Izako Boars +160

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155

*This is a best of three swiss round two match for teams with a 0-1 record in Event.

*Fiend For Event: dream3r 1.46 Rating, REDSTAR 1.45, bubble 1.39, v1c7oR 1.33, h4rn 1.10.

*Fiend For Last Month (56 Maps): REDSTAR 1.21 Rating, dream3r 1.16, h4rn 1.10, v1c7toR 1.08, bubble 1.01

*Izako Boars For Event: STOMP 1.26 Rating, siuhy 1.13, Szejn 1.10, mono 1.06, TOAO 1.02.

*Izako Boars For Last Month (48 Maps): STOMP 1.10 Rating, Szejn 1.08, siuhy 0.98, mono 0.95, TOAO 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played twice so far in 2021 with Fiend sweeping both matches played. Three of the four maps played didn’t see the Boars win over 7 rounds as well.

*Top Performers for Fiend (4 Maps): REDSTAR +54 K-D Diff, 2.38 K-D, 1.66 Rating. v17toR +40 K-D Diff, 2.08 K-D, 1.43 Rating. dream3r +24 K-D Diff, 1.62 K-D, 1.24 Rating.

*Top Performers for Izako Boars (4 Maps): No positive stat-lines for this sample

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for Izako Boars and Vertigo for Fiend. I think we see Mirage for Fiend and Train for Izako Boars.

*Izako Boars on Train (15 Maps): STOMP 1.13 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 73.0 ADR. Szejn 1.11, siuhy 1.08, mono 1.05, TOAO 0.96. On Mirage (10 Maps): siuhy 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 80.8 ADR. STOMP 1.17, Szejn 1.14, TOAO 1.01, mono 0.90.

*Fiend on Mirage (14 Maps): dream3r 1.25 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 84.0 ADR. REDSTAR 1.22, bubble 1.16, h4rn 1.13, v1c7toR 1.11. On Train (18 Maps): v1c7oR 1.17 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 82.9 ADR. REDSTAR 1.12, dream3r 1.07, bubble 0.91.

Analysis: Honestly, I am really not so sure why this line is so small on Fiend. They literally have smashed this Boars team twice now in huge sweeping fashion and Fiend have won 10 of their last 11 matches played. Maybe it’s a bit closer than it has been in the last two meetings, but I like Fiend quite a bit here.

 

*TOP STACKS: Fiend, Wisla Krakow, hREDS

*TOP CPT PLAYS: REDSTAR, dream3r, Markos, Zero, oopee, xartE, jedqr

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: uli, Goofy, iM, v1c7oR, eDi, bubble, Samppa, h4rn