CS:GO DFS Playbook: Sweet Spring Sweet 1 – 5.5.2021 (2-Match)

EPG Family (Ranked 21st in World) @ fnatic (Ranked 26th in World)

Betting Odds: EPG Family -200/fnatic +150

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -150

*This is a best of three semi-finals match for the Sweet Spring Sweet 1 Event.

**NOTE – Check if El1an is playing tomorrow over Deko. That would easily impact a team in DFS is a player not even in the pool (and their literal best player) does happen to play over the guy who is in the pool!!

*EPG For Event: deko 1.31 Rating, Krad 1.30, Forester 1.29, Lack1 1.24, NickelBack 1.16.

*EPG For the Last Month of Play (52 Maps): Deko (21 Maps): 1.37 Rating, Forester 1.15, Lack1 1.14, NickelBack 1.07.  

*fnatic For Event: JW 1.25 Rating, Brollan 1.24, Jackinho 1.12, KRIMZ 0.97, Golden 0.86.

*fnatic For the Last Month of Play (8 Maps): Brollan 1.25 Rating, Jackinho 1.20, JW 1.03, KRIMZ 1.00, Golden 0.78.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for fnatic and Inferno for EPG. I believe we see Dust2 for EPG and Train for fnatic.

*fnatic on Train (8 Maps): Jackinho 1.08 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 77.6 ADR. KRIMZ 1.02, Brollan 1.00, JW 0.99, Golden 0.69. On Dust2 (3 Maps): Brollan 0.96 Rating, 0.64 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 72.0 ADR. KRIMZ 0.77, JW 0.76, Golden 0.74, Jackinho 0.73.

*EPG on Dust2 (25 Maps): deko 1.30 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 81.7 ADR. Krad 1.16, Forester 1.14, Lack1 1.12, NickelBack 0.96. On Train (20 Maps): deko 1.24 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 80.5 ADR. Forester 1.13, NickelBack 1.05, Krad 1.05, Lack1 0.98.

Analysis: It’s really a tough call here as El1an is supposedly out with an illness, but EPG is still quite a decent favorite at the books. Deko is a young stud at just 19 years old, with great numbers, but there is always something with team chemistry that you could really mess up with a top player out. Also, with such a long winning streak (10-matches leading into this one). Fnatic is playing well lately to boot as they have won two of their last three with their only loss in a 1-2 result to Mousesports. I think this match is close. I don’t mind the dog value on fnatic, and I also like some of EPG for DFS purposes. If I am choosing a side, I think at this point with deko in, I am gonna take the dog.

 

forZe (Ranked 25th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World)

Betting Odds: forZe +130/FURIA -170

Map Odds: Over 2.5 +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three semi-final match for Sweet Spring Sweet 1 Event.

*forZE For Event: FL1T 1.15 Rating, Jerry 1.14, zorte 1.09, KENSI 1.09, almazer 0.98.

*forZe For the Last Month of Play (35 Maps): FL1T 1.19 Rating, zorte 1.09, Jerry 1.07, KENSI 1.06, almazer 1.00.

*FURIA For Event: arT 1.48 Rating, yuurih 1.47, KSCERATO 1.22, VINI 0.92, junior 0.90.

*FURIA For the Last Month of Play (23 Maps): yuurih 1.14 Rating, KSCERATO 1.12, arT 1.06, VINI 0.93, junior 0.90.

H2H DATA:

*These two squads have not played a head-to-head match since 2019.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for forZe, and Dust2 for FURIA. I think we see Inferno for FURIA and Mirage for forZe.

*FURIA on Inferno (6 Maps): KSCERATO 1.28 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 84.2 ADR. arT 1.28, yuurih 1.19, VINI 1.14, junior 0.98. On Mirage (14 Maps): KSCERATO 1.10 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 75.6 ADR. arT 1.05, yuurih 1.00, VINI 0.96, junior 0.93.

*forZe on Mirage (20 Maps): FL1T 1.35 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 97.3 ADR. zorte 1.16, Jerry 1.12, KENSI 1.09, almazer 1.03. On Inferno (15 Maps): Jerry 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 80.4 ADR. FL1T 1.09, zorte 1.01, KENSI 1.00, almazer 0.99.

Analysis: This is super tough man. Both of these teams are playing at a pretty high level right now and this match could literally go either way. I think that I have to give the small edge to FURIA as I think if arT can make space and get pressure, which he has been doing flawlessly as of late if you didn’t see his numbers above, then I think FURIA can squeak this win out, maybe even a really close 2-0. I think it’s a 2-1 in favor of FURIA though.

 

*TOP STACKS (In Order): FURIA, fnatic

*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not In Order): yuurih, Jackinho, Brollan, FL1T, KSCERATO, deko

*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not In Order): Forester, Jerry, arT, VINI, KRIMZ, KENSI, Krad