CS:GO DFS Playbook: DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 – 5.2.2021 (3-Match)

Vitality (Ranked 12th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -145/FURIA +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three lower-bracket final match with the winner advancing to the quarter-finals.

*Vitality For Event (6 Maps): zywOo 1.56 Rating, shox 1.11, apEX 1.08, misutaaa 1.03, kyojin 0.97.

*Vitality For Last Month of Play (10 Maps): ZywOo 1.34 Rating, shox 1.10, apEX 1.06, misutaaa 1.01, kyojin 0.97.

*FURIA For Event (5 Maps): KSCERATO 1.19 Rating, VINI 1.18, yuurih 1.11, junior 0.96, arT 0.91.

*FURIA For Last Month of Play (23 Maps): KSCERATO 1.10 Rating, yuurih 1.10, arT 1.00, VINI 1.00, junior 0.92.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played a head-to-head match since 2019.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Train for Vitality. Since Dust2 has been a popular first choice for Vitality lately, they will have to go with a secondary map and I think that one will be Nuke with FURIA going with Mirage likely (could see Vertigo also with them trying to get Inferno as decider).

*Vitality on Nuke (9 Maps): ZywOo 1.24 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 80.9 ADR. apEX 1.20, shox 1.10, misutaaa 0.98, kyokin 0.95. On Mirage (6 Maps): ZywOo 1.27 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 83.1 ADR. misutaaa 1.04, Kyojin 0.95, shox 0.93, apEX 0.93.

*FURIA on Mirage (13 Maps): KSCERATO 1.09 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 75.4 ADR. arT 1.00, yuurih 0.96, VINI 0.96, Junior 0.92. On Nuke (7 Maps): KSCERATO 1.09 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.99 IMP, 76.9 ADR. yuurih 1.09, VINI 1.01, arT 0.89, Junior 0.86.

Analysis: Vitality has started to look like the Vitality of old with their two-match winning streak over Extra Salt and BIG, but FURIA has also been on a two-match win streak over paiN and Complexity, both by 2-0 sweep. I think this match turns out to be very close. I am going with FURIA 2-1 however as I feel they have a better complete team. If Junior can do even half his job with the AWP, FURIA should be able to get this win.

 

Gambit (Ranked 1st in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 5th in World)

Betting Odds: Gambit -150/NaVi +115

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -130/Under -105

*This is a best of three Group A upper-bracket final match with the winner advancing to semi-finals and loser heading down to quarter-finals bracket.

*Gambit For Event (4 Maps): sh1ro 1.41 Rating, Hobbit 1.33, Ax1Le 1.19, Nafany 1.19, interz 1.10.

*Gambit For Last Month of Play (27 Maps): sh1ro 1.33 Rating, Hobbit 1.23, Ax1Le 1.23, Nafany 1.11, interz 0.98.

*NaVi For Event (3 Maps): s1mple 1.39 Rating, Perfecto 1.27, B1T 1.11, electronic 1.03, Boombl4 0.96.

*NaVi For Last Month of Play (5 Maps): s1mple 1.31 Rating, Perfecto 1.11, B1T 1.05, electronic 0.94, Boombl4 0.87.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played twice so far in 2021 with Gambit winning both times, the latter by the 2-0 sweep at IEM Katowice 2021, and the most recent a 2-1 win at ESL Pro League Season 13.

*Top Performers For Gambit (5 Maps): Hobbit +27 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.23 Rating. sh1ro +24 K-D Diff, 1.29 K-D, 1.21 Rating. Ax1Le +11 K-D Diff, 1.13 K-D, 1.14 Rating. Nafany +4 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.11 Rating. interz +3 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 0.98 Rating.

*Top Performers For NaVi (5 Maps): electronic +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.02 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for NaVi and Nuke for Gambit. I think we see Overpass for Gambit and Inferno for NaVI.

*Gambit on Overpass (15 Maps): Hobbit 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 83.0 ADR. Ax1Le 1.15, sh1ro 1.13, Nafany 1.11, interz 0.96. On Inferno (13 Maps): Ax1Le 1.30 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 88.2 ADR. sh1ro 1.23, Hobbit 1.19, interz 0.98, Nafany 0.98.

*NaVi on Inferno (3 Maps): Boombl4 1.27 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 84.6 ADR. Perfecto 1.24, electronic 1.23, B1T 1.19, s1mple 1.12. On Overpass (5 Maps): s1mple 1.34 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 88.7 ADR. Perfecto 1.11, B1T 0.99, electronic 0.92, Boombl4 0.92.

Analysis: I know that folks always say, “It is hard to beat a team three times in a row”, but I don’t see that here. Gambit is still just a much better team and they are still hungry and out to prove they belong in the top spot of the World. Gambit is the real deal. They literally have only lost two matches out of their last like 20 matches played and those losses – Heroic (ESL Champs) and Copenhagen Flames (fluke). Either way, I like Gambit here and think they win again.

 

Astralis (Ranked 3rd in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 2nd in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -170/Astralis +130

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -110

*This is a best Group B upper-bracket final match with the winner advancing to the semi-finals and the loser heading down to the quarter-finals.

*Astralis For Event (3 Maps): Bubzjki 1.37 Rating, dupreeh 1.27, Magisk 1.26, Xyp9x 1.24, gla1ve 1.14.

*Astralis For Last Month of Play (9 Maps): Bubzkji (4 Maps): 1.19 Rating, Magisk 1.06, dupreeh 0.95, Xyp9x 0.90, gla1ve 0.83.

*Heroic For Event (3 Maps): cadiaN 1.31 Rating, refrezh 1.26, sjuush 1.17, stavn 1.16, TeSeS 1.07.

*Heroic For Last Month of Play (19 Maps): cadiaN 1.16 Rating, TeSeS 1.13, refrezh 1.12, stavn 1.08, sjuush 1.07.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams haven’t played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Mirage for Astralis. I think we see Nuke for Heroic and Inferno for Astralis.

*Heroic on Nuke (7 Maps): refrezh 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 80.1 ADR. TeSeS 1.30, stavn 1.14, cadiaN 1.13, sjuush 0.97. On Inferno (7 Maps): cadiaN 1.15 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 73.5 ADR. refrezh 1.07, TeSeS 1.07, sjuush 1.05, stavn 1.04.

*Astralis on Inferno (10 Maps): dupreeh 1.10 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 71.9 ADR. gla1ve 1.07, Magisk 0.98, Bubzkji 0.98, Xyp9x 0.89. On Nuke (3 Maps): Bubzjki (1 Map): 1.34 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 92.3 ADR. gla1ve 1.25, Xyp9x 1.22, dupreeh 1.21, Magisk 1.16.

Analysis: Astralis little run will end here. Heroic is the best team in the World right now and what better way to show that than beat the 3rd ranked team in the World currently? Heroic is also the real deal and I think we could even see a 2-0 here in favor of Heroic.

 

*TOP STACKS: Gambit, Heroic, FURIA

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: FURIA

*TOP CPT PLAYS: cadiaN, ZywOo, s1mple, sh1ro, Hobbit, refrezh, dupreeh, KSCERATO

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: yuurih, Ax1Le (don’t mind CPT), electronic, stavn, shox, Magisk, Xyp9x, arT, Junior