CS:GO DFS Playbook: DreamHack Masters Spring 2021

Astralis (Ranked 3rd in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 10th in World)

Betting Odds: Complexity -120/Astralis -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -125/Under -105

*This is a best of three Group B upper-bracket semi-final match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021.

*Astralis For Event (1 Map): Magisk 1.61 Rating, Xyp9x 1.35, Bubzkji 1.34, dupreeh 1.27, gla1ve 1.12.

*Astralis For Last Three Months of Play (35 Maps): dupreeh 1.08 Rating, Magisk 1.02, gla1ve 0.97, Xyo9x 0.94, Bubzkji 0.92.

*Complexity For Event (1 Map): jks 1.49 Rating, blameF 1.15, k0nfig 1.05, RUSH 0.99, poizon 0.90.

*Complexity For Last Three Months of Play (56 Maps): blameF 1.22 Rating, k0nfig 1.19, poizon 1.07, jks 1.04, RUSH 0.92.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played since the device departure and seeing as how he was the main go to and best player for Astralis I think this match will be extremely different than their prior matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for Complexity and Mirage for Astralis. I believe we see Astralis go with Nuke and Complexity go with Vertigo.

*Astralis on Nuke (3 Maps): Bubzjki (1 Map): 1.34 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 92.3 ADR. gla1ve 1.25, dupree 1.21, Xyp9x 1.20, Magisk 1.16. On Vertigo (4 Maps): Magisk 1.13 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 86.6 ADR. dupreeh 1.1, Xyp9x 0.88, gla1ve 0.88, Bubzjki 0.0.

*Complexity on Vertigo (5 Maps): k0nfig 1.53 Rating, 1.04 KPR, 1.76 IMP, 107.7 ADR. blameF 1.25, jks 1.18, poizon 1.02, RUSH 0.93. On Nuke (9 Maps): blameF 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 86.5 ADR. k0nfig 1.10, poizon 1.10, jks 1.03, RUSH 0.90.

Analysis: The odds are telling me that this will be a three-map close affair. Astralis took care of business in their first best of one in this Event in their first match without Device. However, this Complexity team has been surging as of late and are carrying a 5-match win streak heading into this match. I believe we could see a 2-1 result here for Complexity.

 

Spirit (Ranked 11th in World) @ Virtus.Pro (Ranked 4th in World)

Betting Odds: Spirit -125/VP -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -135/Under +100

*This is a best of three Group A lower-bracket semi-final match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021.

*Spirit For Event (1 Map): degster 1.34 rating, mir 1.07, sdy 1.06, chopper 0.99, magixx 0.93.

*Spirit For Last Three Months of Play (42 Maps): degster 1.25 Rating, mir 1.25, sdy 1.14, chopper 1.08, magixx 1.06

*VP For Event (1 Map): YEKINDAR 1.28 Rating, Jame 0.98, Qikert 0.90, SANJI 0.86, buster 0.79.

*VP For Last Three Months of Play (59 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.24 rating, Jame 1.21, buster 1.03, Qikert 1.00, SANJI 0.94.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches but played four back in 2020 with Spirit winning three of the four. However, VP won the most recent match played 2-1. Three of the four matches went for 3 maps also.

*VP vs Spirit (11 Maps): Jame +37 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.11 Rating. Qikert +0 K-D Diff, 1.00 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*Spirit vs VP (11 Maps): degster (8 Maps): +27 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.12 Rating. mir +24 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.13 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for Spirit and Nuke for VP. I believe we see Dust2 for Spirit and Inferno for VP.

*VP on Inferno (12 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.21 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 86.0 ADR. Jame 1.18, buster 1.11, SANJI 1.01, Qikert 1.00. On Dust2 (14 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 88.3 ADR. Jame 1.18, Qikert 1.03, SANJI 1.00, Buster 0.95.

*Spirit on Dust2 (9 Maps): mir 1.43 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 92.9 ADR. chopper 1.29, degster 1.22, sdy 1.17, magixx 1.17. On Inferno (8 Maps): Sdy 1.29 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 83.9 ADR. degster 1.29, mir 1.26, magixx 1.09, chopper 1.00.

Analysis: I do like Spirit here. They are fresh off a loss they shouldn’t have sustained and this is a familiar foe for them, in which they do have a little revenge for here after losing to VP last time out. I think their numbers are much better on the projected maps and they could potentially 2-0 this match.

 

BIG (Ranked 6th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 2nd in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -220/BIG  +165

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a Group B upper-bracket semi-finals match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021.

*BIG For Event (1 Map): tiziaN 1.72 Rating, k1to 1.70, tabseN 0.96, syrsoN 0.93, XANTARES 0.87.

*BIG For Last Three Months of Play (59 Maps): syrsoN 1.11 Rating, XANTARES 1.09, tabseN 1.06, k1to 1.02, tiziaN 0.92.

*Heroic For Event (1 Map): cadiaN 1.45 rating, refrezh 1.26, sjuush 1.25, TeSeS 1.17, stavn 1.14

*Heroic For Last Three Months (45 Maps): cadiaN 1.16, TeSeS 1.10, stavn 1.08, sjuush 1.08, refrezh 1.06.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played twice so far in 2021 with Heroic winning both times. The most recent meeting at ESL Pro League in a 2-1 result and the prior in a sweep at IEM Katowice 2021.

*Heroic Top Performers (5 Maps): cadiaN +22 K-D Diff, 1.27 K-D, 1.19 Rating. TeSeS +5 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.12 Rating. stavn +4 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

*BIG Top Performers (5 Maps): XANTARES +20 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.20 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Train for BIG. Since Dust2 is typical first map for BIG, I think we see them go with Mirage and I think we see Nuke for Heroic.

*BIG on Mirage (9 Maps): syrsoN 1.20 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 72.8 ADR. XANTARES 1.18, tabseN 1.15, k1to 1.15, tiziaN 0.92. On Nuke (10 Maps): tabseN 1.13 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 90.5 ADR. XANTARES 1.12, syrsoN 1.04, k1to 0.93, tiziaN 0.82.

*Heroic on Nuke (7 Maps): refrezh 1.32 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 80.6 ADR. cadiaN 1.18, TeSeS 1.17, stavn 1.05, sjuush 0.97. On Mirage (8 Maps): stavn 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 87.4 ADR. refrezh 1.19, sjuush 1.07, cadiaN 1.05, TeSeS 1.01.

Analysis: I think this match is likely the toughest to predict today. BIG has played really well lately and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them run it to three maps and potentially win this match, it also wouldn’t shock me to see Heroic sweep them easily. BIG is one of the hardest teams to analyze. Heroic is just a really, really good team. I lean Heroic but will have some BIG in tournaments.

 

G2 (Ranked 9th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -130/Mouse -100

Map Odds:  2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three Group A lower-bracket semi-final match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021.

*G2 For Event (1 Map): huNter 0.97 Rating, nexa 0.96, NiKo 0.90, AmaNEk 0.84, JaCkz 0.76.

*G2 For the Last Three Months of Play (56 Maps): huNter 1.13 Rating, NiKo 1.11, AmaNEk 0.97, nexa 0.96, JaCkz 0.90.

*Mouse For Event (1 Map): frozen 1.12 Rating, acoR 1.10, ropz 1.10, Bymas 1.03, dexter 0.98

*Mouse For the Last Three Months of Play (59 Maps): ropz 1.19 Rating, frozen 1.13, acoR 1.07, Bymas 0.99, dexter 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played three times so far in 2021 with G2 winning two of the three matches and the last two played. Both teams swapped a sweep and G2 won a 2-1 result as well.

*Top Performers for G2 (7 Maps): huNter +9 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*Top Performers for Mouse (7 Maps): ropz +24 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.13 Rating. frozen +7 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.06 Rating. acoR +13 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for G2 and Inferno for Mouse. I think we see Nuke for Mouse and Dust2 for G2.

*G2 on Dust2 (11 Maps): NiKo 1.17 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 82.1 ADR. huNter 1.06, AmaNEk 0.90, nexa 0.89, JaCkz 0.81. On Nuke (6 Maps): huNter 1.14 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 84.9 ADR. NiKo 1.10, nexa 1.06, AmaNEk 1.03, JaCkz 1.02.

*Mouse on Nuke (10 Maps): ropz 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 87.8 ADR. frozen 1.20, dexter 1.01, acoR 1.00, Bymas 0.92. On Dust2 (11 Maps): ropz 1.22 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 83.5 ADR. dexter 1.10, acoR 1.06, Bymas 1.03, frozen 1.01.

Analysis: I like Mouse here. I think they rate a little better on the maps and they also are likely looking for some sweet revenge here after losing last the times out against this G2 team. Mouse got the monkey off their back last time out against FaZe in a 2-1 result after dropping three-straight, including a match against this same G2 team where they were swept. I am looking at the revenge here.

 

*TOP STACKS: Complexity, Spirit, Heroic, Mousesports

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Mousesports, BIG

*TOP CPT PLAYS: degster, mir, blameF, k0nfig, ropz, cadiaN, huNter, XANTARES, YEKINDAR

*TOP VALUES:  syrsoN, NiKo, sdy, refrezh, TeSeS, tabseN, frozen, Jame, poizon, dupreeh