CS:GO DFS Playbook: IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier 4.27.2021 (4-Match)

BIG (Ranked 12th in World) @ FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 14th in World)

Betting Odds: BIG -225/FPX +170

Map Odds: Over 2.5 +100/Under -135

*This is a best of three match for Stage 2 in the upper-bracket quarter-final rounds for the IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier Match.

*BIG are fresh off a Grand Final Win for the FunSpark ULTI 2020 Europe Final over Extra Salt yesterday and jump right into Stage 2 here for the IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier match. BIG come into this one in GREAT current form, winning all five of their previous five matches with four of those (best of threes) all being won by the 2-0 sweep. FunPlus Phoenix got the monkey off their back on Monday beating SKADE (who was on a 17-match win streak) in a 2-1 result. They had dropped their prior two matches before the win.

*BIG For the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): XANTARES 1.15 Rating, syrsoN 1.12, tabseN 1.07, k1to 1.04, tiziaN 0.94.

*BIG For the Last Three Months of Play (58 Maps): XANTARES 1.12 Rating, syrsoN 1.11, tabseN 1.10, k1to 1.03, tiziaN 0.94.

*FPX For the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): STYKO 1.15 Rating, Maden 1.04, zehN 1.02, Farlig 0.99, emi 0.97.

*FPX For the Last Three Months of Play (42 Maps): Maden 1.05 Rating, Farlig 1.04, STYKO 1.03, zehN 1.01, emi 0.97.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played one best of three so far in 2021 with FPX winning 2-1 with results of 16-14 on Nuke and 19-17 on Inferno. BIG won Mirage with a score of 16-10.

*Top Performers For FPX (3 Maps): Maden +11 K-D Diff, 1.17 Rating, 88.6 ADR.

*Top Performers For BIG (3 Maps): XANTARES +20 K-D Diff, 1.22 Rating, 82.8 ADR. tabseN +11 K-D Diff, 1.26 Rating, 91.3 ADR. syrsoN +9 K-D Diff, 1.05 Rating, 67.6 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for BIG and Mirage for FPX. I think we see Dust2 from BIG and Nuke for FPX.

*BIG on Dust2 (13 Maps): syrsoN 1.22 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 81.5 ADR. k1to 1.12, tabseN 1.05, XANTARES 1.05, tiziaN 0.95. On Nuke (10 Maps): tabseN 1.23 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 95.2 ADR. XANTARES 1.15, syrsoN 1.03, k1to 0.95, tiziaN 0.89.

*FPX on Nuke (13 Maps): Maden 1.13 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 81.5 ADR. Farlig 1.07, STYKO 1.06, zehN 1.05. On Dust2 (6 Maps): zehN 1.02 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.87 IMP, 76.9 ADR. STYKO 0.94, Farlig 0.89, Maden 0.85.

Analysis: BIG have been on a massive run lately and are fresh off a Grand Final win. This is usually the best spot to fade a winning streak, and FPX has a bit of confidence after there opening stage 1 win over SKADE. I think FPX is very interesting here. I wouldn’t be surprised if BIG won 2-0 and I wouldn’t be surprised if FPX won 2-0.

G2 (Ranked 9th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -140/Mousesports +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125

*This is a best of three Stage 2 upper-bracket quarter-finals match for the IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifer.

*G2 comes into this one on a three-match win streak after beating Spirit to advance to the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021 Event after a beating EndPoint and OG as well. Mousesports are also on a win streak of their own, sitting at four matches after beating K23 in Stage 1 of the Event on Monday in a 2-0 fashion. They have won three of their last four matches by the 2-0 sweep.

*G2 For the Last Month of Play (13 Maps): huNter 1.18 Rating, NiKo 1.09, AmaNEk 0.96, nexa 0.91, JaCkz 0.86.

*G2 For the Last Three Months of Play (41 Maps): huNter 1.15 Rating, NiKo 1.10, AmaNEk 0.98, nexa 0.98, JaCkz 0.91.

*Mousesports For the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): ropz 1.29 Rating, frozen1.24, acoR 1.14, Bymas 1.14, dexter 0.93.

*Mousesports For the Last Three Months of Play (38 Maps): ropz 1.21 Rating, frozen 1.13, acoR 1.05, Bymas 0.96, dexter 0.91.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played one match so far in 2021 with Mousesports sweeping 2-0 with scores of 16-12 on Mirage and 16-6 on Vertigo.

*Top Performers for Mousesports (2 Maps): acoR +15 K-D Diff, 1.36 Rating, 89.0 ADR. frozen +13 K-D Diff, 1.17 Rating, 77.5 ADR. Bymas +8 K-D Diff, 1.18 Rating, 77.4 ADR. ropz +7 K-D Diff, 1.16 Rating, 78.3 ADR.

*Top Performers for G2 (2 Maps): No positive stat-lines, but nexa was the closest with -6 K-D Diff.

MAPS:

*The first two likely ban maps for this match should include Overpass for Mouseports and Train for G2. I think we see Mousesports go with Vertigo and G2 go with Dust2.

* Mousesports on Vertigo (6 Maps): ropz 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 80.6 ADR. frozen 1.16, acoR 1.06, Bymas 0.99, dexter 0.91. On Dust2 (8 Maps): ropz 1.29 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 88.4 ADR. dexter 1.13, frozen 1.05, acoR 0.99, Bymas 0.99.

*G2 on Dust2 (7 Maps): NiKo 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 83.5 ADR. huNter 1.09, AmaNEk 0.96, nexa 0.86, JaCkz 0.66. On Vertigo (7 Maps): huNter 1.18 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 87.3 ADR. NiKo 1.08, nexa 1.01, JaCkz 0.96, AmaNEk 0.90.

Analysis: This is quite the revenge spot for G2 and I bet they are very prepared for this match. Mouse got a pretty easy win over K23 on Monday, but I expect this to be a much bigger task obviously. I fully expect this to be a 3-mapper, and I think that G2 likely wins somehow 2-1 or they choke it off to Mouse in a 2-1 result. Either way, I think both sides can be used for Fantasy in this match.

 

 

FURIA (Ranked 7th in World) @ FaZe (Ranked 18th in World)

Betting Odds: FURIA -145/FaZe +115

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125

*This is a best of three Stage 2 lower-bracket round 1 match for the IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier.

*FURIA have lost their last two matches and have also lose three of their last four matches played coming into this one. FaZe lost yesterday to OG to end up in this lower-bracket match and have also lost three of their last four matches played.

*FURIA For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): yuurih 1.10 Rating, KSCERATO 1.06, arT 1.03, VINI 0.97, Junior 0.96.

*FURIA For the Last Three Months of Play (41 Maps): yuurih 1.09 Rating, KSCERATO 1.09, arT 1.08, VINI 0.99, Junior 0.96.

*FaZe For the Last Month of Play (2 Maps): broky 1.01 Rating, Twistzz 0.89, Karrigan 0.87, coldzera 0.86, rain 0.84.

*FaZe For the Last Three Months of Play (35 Maps): Twistzz 1.13 Rating, broky 1.06, coldzera 1.02, rain 1.00, Karrigan 0.87.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played once so far in 2021 at the IEM Katowice Event with FURIA winning in a 2-1 decision. They won Train 16-4 and Mirage 16-8, while FaZe took Overpass 16-14.

*Top Performers for FaZe (3 Maps): No positive stat-lines and rain finished the best at -7 K-D Diff.

*Top Performers for FURIA (3 Maps): KSCERATO +18 K-D Diff, 1.37 Rating, 92.7 ADR. arT +17 K-D Diff, 1.27 Rating, 80.7 ADR. yuurih +16 K-D Diff, 1.32 Rating, 91.9 ADR. Junior +16 K-D diff, 1.14 Rating, 63.3 ADR. VINI +12 K-D Diff, 1.13 Rating, 77.0 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Vertigo for FaZe. I think we see FaZe go with Mirage and Inferno for FURIA.

*FaZe on Mirage (6 Maps): coldzera 1.10 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 79.2 ADR. Twistzz 1.09, broky 1.03, rain 0.93, Karrigan 0.85. On Inferno (5 Maps): Twistzz 1.30 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 83.5 ADR. broky 1.24, coldzera 1.21, Karrigan 1.00, rain 1.00.

*FURIA on Inferno (5 Maps): KSCERATO 1.22 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 81.3 ADR. VINI 1.21, yuurih 1.18, Junior 1.07, arT 0.98. On Mirage (11 Maps): KSCERATO 1.08 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 74.3 ADR. arT 1.03, yuurih 0.95, VINI 0.95, Junior 0.86.

Analysis: I think that FURIA is just a much stronger team here. FaZe hasn’t really shown me anything to think that they are much better than they were before Karrigan. I am rolling FURIA here and I think they get the job done.

 

 

Movistar Riders (Ranked 35th in World) vs OG (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: OG – 325/Movistar Riders +230

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -150

*This is a best of three for Stage 2 upper-bracket quarter final. Winner qualifies for IEM Summer 2021.

*Movistar Riders took care of business against ENCE on Monday in a pretty easy 2-0 sweep, while OG beat Trident in Stage 1 and then turn around and beat FaZe also in a 2-0 sweep to bolster than spot here in this match.

*Movistar Riders For the Last Month of Play (38 Maps): smooya 1.19 Rating, mopoz 1.14, alex 1.13, shokz 1.08, steel 0.97.

*Movistar Riders For the Last Three Months of Play (89 Maps): smooya 1.21 Rating, mopoz 1.14, alex 1.10, shokz 1.05, steel 0.96.

*OG For the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): mantuu 1.29 Rating, valde 1.24, Aleksib 1.21, flameZ 1.20, niko 1.06.

*OG For the Last Three Months of Play (52 Maps): mantuu 1.14 Rating, valde 1.14, flameZ 1.12, Aleksib 1.05, niko 1.05.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The likely two first banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Movistar Riders and Vertigo for OG. I think we see Overpass for Movistar Riders and Inferno for OG.

*Movistar Riders on Overpass (23 Maps): smooya 1.27 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 75.3 ADR. alex 1.17, mopoz 1.16, shokz 1.14, steel 0.98. On Inferno (15 Maps): mopoz 1.33 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 95.1 ADR. smooya 1.13, shokz 1.14, alex 1.09, steel 0.95.

*OG on Inferno (13 Maps): valde 1.21 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 81.0 ADR. niko 1.09, Aleksib 1.07, mantuu 1.06, flameZ 1.01. On Overpass (6 Maps): niko 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 89.2 ADR. valde 1.06, mantuu 1.02, Aleksib 0.90.

Analysis: I am not going to lie, I like Movistar Riders here. Yes, I am a tournament player, so it is in my DNA to like the dog, but this is really interesting match here. Movistar Riders are actually a pretty salty squad and the map numbers are not totally in OG favor. It will come down to individual talent and schemes in this one, but I think the Movistar Riders (biggest dog on the board) have a decently legit shot of winning this match.

 

*TOP STACKS: FURIA, G2, FPX, Movistar Riders

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: FPX, Movistar Riders

*TOP CPT PLAYS: KSCERATO, yuurih, NiKo, huNter, STYKO, smooya, valde, ropz syrsoN, Maden

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: mopoz, mantuu, frozen, arT, tabseN, JaCkz, zehN, nexa