CS:GO DFS Playbook: IEM Summer 2021 Closed Qualifier 4.26.2021 (4-Match)
ENCE (Ranked 22nd in World) @ Movistar Riders (Ranked 42nd in World)
Betting Odds: ENCE -155/MRs +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is a best of three stage 1 match with winner advancing to stage 2 and loser is eliminated.
*ENCE is fresh off a 2-1 win over DBL PONEY and have won three of their last four matches played with their only loss coming to Nordavind. However, it is worth noting they have only won 4 of their last 10 matches played. Movistar Riders have been on quite a streak, with their only loss coming two matches ago vs SKADE in a best of one that saw a 16-14 finish on Overpass. Other than that loss, MRs have won six of their last seven matches, five of those by the 2-0 sweep.
*ENCE For the Last Month of Play (21 Maps): dycha 1.11 Rating, allu 1.04, Spinx 1.04, doto 1.00, Snappi 0.93.
*ENCE For the Last Three Months of Play (48 Maps): dycha 1.12 Rating, Spinx 1.05, allu 1.03, doto 0.97, Snappi 0.95.
*Movistar Riders For the Last Month of Play (36 Maps): smooya 1.21 Rating, alex 1.10, mopoz 1.10, shokz 1.06, steel 0.94.
*Movistar Riders For the Last Three Months of Play (85 Maps): smooya 1.20 Rating, mopoz 1.13, alex 1.09, shokz 1.04, steel 0.95.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for ENCE and Dust2 for MRs. I think we see MRs go with Overpass as their first pick, and ENCE will likely go with Train.
*Movistar Riders on Overpass (21 Maps): smooya 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 75.8 ADR. alex 1.15, mopoz 1.15, shokz 1.13, steel 0.96. On Train (11 Maps): smooya 1.28 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 83.7 ADR. mopoz 1.07, alex 1.03, steel 0.96, shokz 0.96.
*ENCE on Train (16 Maps): dycha 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 86.9 ADR. Spinx 1.14, allu 1.11, doto 1.06, Snappi 1.01. On Overpass (5 Maps): allu 1.18 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 76.5 ADR. Spinx 1.07, doto 1.06, dycha 1.04, Snappi 0.95.
Analysis: I believe the only reason that ENCE is a slight favorite in this match is due to them being a higher rank than Movistar Riders. Current form easily goes to MRs here, I think that MRs has decent numbers on both maps here and likely both AWP players for each team are set up nicely if these are the two maps that are played, as they favor the AWP with longer-range shooting. I think MRs has value here and could easily win this match.
OG (Ranked 17th in World) @ Trident (Ranked 54th in World)
Betting Odds: OG -665/Trident +410
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +180/Under -250
*This is a Stage 1 best of three match with the winner advancing to Stage 2 and the loser is eliminated.
*OG are fresh off a loss to G2 with a 1-2 result and have lost three of their last four matches played. Trident are also off a loss, a 0-2 result to ex-Winstrike, but had won their prior five matches in a row. However, the competition was not even Tier-2 CS teams, so to say that the wins were big, not so much. OG were boot-camping for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown, so it will be interesting to see how well they mesh at their own residences now for this Event.
*OG For the Last Month of Play (5 Maps): flameZ 1.24 Rating, valde 1.21, mantuu 1.21, Aleksib 1.17, niko 0.96.
*OG For the Last Three Months of Play (54 Maps): valde 1.14 Rating, flameZ 1.12, mantuu 1.11, niko 1.02, Aleksib 1.01.
*Trident For the Last Month of Play (31 Maps): glowing 1.15 Rating, clax 1.09, Norwi 1.08, tricky 1.07, seized 0.97.
*Trident For the Last Three Months of Play (81 Maps): glowing 1.11 Rating, tricky 1.09, clax 1.06, seized 0.97, Norwi 0.96.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for OG and Mirage for Trident. Believe we see Inferno for OG and Overpass for Trident.
*OG on Inferno (14 Maps): valde 1.20 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 80.1 ADR. flameZ 1.12, niko 1.07, mantuu 1.05, Aleksib 0.98. On Overpass (4 Maps): flameZ 1.23 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 83.5 ADR. niko 1.12, valde 1.06, mantuu 1.02, Aleksib 0.90.
*Trident on Overpass (15 Maps): glowiing 1.33 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 94.8 ADR. tricky 1.15, seized 1.01, clax 1.00, Norwi 0.99. On Inferno (15 Maps): tricky 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 71.9 ADR. clax 1.08, glowiing 0.97, seized 0.94, Norwi 0.86.
Analysis: As we know, on paper this should be a no-brainer for OG. They are the heaviest favorite on the slate by a large margin and they are a much more talented team with top-tier experience here. I think they do win this match, and likely a 2-0 result.
FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 14th in World) @ SKADE (Ranked 24th in World)
Betting Odds: SKADE -150/FPX +115
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is a best of three Stage 1 match with the winner advancing to Stage 2 and the loser is eliminated.
*SKADE are coming into this match on a heater of a streak winning 17 of their last matches in a row, with a few notable wins over Movistar Riders, Endpoint, Nordavind, HAVU, and Illuminar. FPX were losers in their last match at the hands of FURIA in a 1-2 result and have lost three of their last five matches played. They did however win a 2-1 result over both OG and BIG in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event just a few weeks ago. Their current form is not exactly the best, but they have played some tough competition.
*FPX For the Last Month of Play (3 Maps): STYKO 1.01 Rating, Farlig 0.97, Maden 0.87, zehN 0.85, emi 0.00.
*FPX For the Last Three Months of Play (38 Maps): Farlig 1.04 Rating, Maden 1.03, zehN 1.00, STYKO 1.00, emi 0.00.
*SKADE For the Last Month of Play (72 Maps): dennyslaw 1.20 Rating, SHiPZ 1.16, Duplicate 1.12, Rainwaker 1.11, oxygen 1.08.
*SKADE For the Last Three Months of Play (118 Maps): SHiPZ 1.20 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 84.9 ADR. dennyslaw 1.18, Rainwaker 1.13, oxygen 1.10, Duplicate 1.09.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for SKADE and Mirage for FPX. SKADE has been going with Overpass (SKADE has won 95% of their last 22 Overpass maps played recently) as their first map choice lately, while FPX will have to choose a secondary map after Nuke will be banned, and I think they go with Inferno (SKADE has won roughly 80% of their last 24 Inferno maps also compared to FPX 56%).
*SKADE on Overpass (22 Maps): dennyslaw 1.33 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 85.3 ADR. SHiPZ 1.25, oxygen 1.18, Rainwaker 1.12, Duplicate 1.09. On Inferno (24 Maps): Rainwaker 1.19 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 77.4 ADR. Duplicate 1.18, SHiPZ 1.17, dennyslaw 1.15, oxygen 1.09.
*FPX on Inferno (9 Maps): Maden 1.04 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 78.1 ADR. zehN 1.03, STYKO 1.03, Farlig 1.00. On Overpass (4 Maps): Farlig 1.10 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 72.0 ADR. STYKO 0.91, Maden 0.88, zehN 0.87.
Analysis: Honestly, the only reason that SKADE isn’t a larger favorite in this match is due to the respect that has to be given to FPX for their higher World rank. Everything else here is clearly in the favor of SKADE. They have played a ton of maps lately and have beaten some pretty damn good teams that I think could potentially beat FPX also. I think this match is close, but I think SKADE could be my top stack for this slate.
Mousesports (Ranked 15th in World) @ K23 (Ranked 45th in World)
Betting Odds: Mousesports -240/K23 +175
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160
*This is a best of three Stage 1 match with the winner advancing to Stage 2 and the loser is eliminated.
*Both of these teams come into this match riding a win streak. Mouse has won their last three in a row over SKADE, fnatic, and ex-winstrike, which are three pretty nice wins. K23 comes in riding a 5-match win streak, but all over lesser ranked competition in the lower-tier CS scene, however, four of the five matches were 2-0 sweeps over teams like LDLC, and Izako Boars.
*Mousesports For the Last Month of Play (7 Maps): ropz 1.29 Rating, frozen 1.23, Bymas 1.12, acoR 1.06, dexter 0.87.
*Mousesports For the Last Three Months of Play (40 Maps): ropz 1.19 Rating, frozen 1.15, acoR 1.02, Bymas 0.96, dexter 0.89.
*K23 For the Last Month of Play (31 Maps): n0rb3r7 1.34 Rating, mou 1.21, fame 1.21, neaLaN 1.02, adreN 0.97.
*K23 For the Last Three Months of Play (61 Maps): n0rb3r7 1.23 Rating, fame 1.15, mou 1.13, neaLaN 1.00, AdreN 0.99.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for K23 and Overpass for Mousesports. Since Overpass is a first map choice lately for K23, they will have to go with a secondary map and I think that ends up being Dust2. I think we see Mouse go with Nuke.
*K23 on Dust2 (9 Maps): n0rb3r7 1.29 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 92.4 ADR. mou 1.19, AdreN 1.11, fame 1.08, neaLaN 0.99. On Nuke (5 Maps): mou 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 78.8 ADR. n0rb3r7 1.15, AdreN 0.91, neaLaN 0.87, fame 0.79.
Mousesports on Nuke (6 Maps): ropz 1.26 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 90.3 ADR. frozen 1.23, acoR 0.98, Bymas 0.95, dexter 0.94. On Dust2 (7 Maps): ropz 1.28 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 88.8 ADR. dexter 1.10, frozen 1.02, Bymas 0.98, acoR 0.92.
Analysis: I believe Mouse will garner a bit of ownership on this slate, obviously it seems folks always flock to them. I think ropz obviously will be the highest owned player on the slate and with me playing only GPPs, I likely won’t have just a whole bunch. I do like some of the value on K23 in this match, and they have some really nice numbers for both maps and recent form is also pretty good. Think we see a 3-mapper here and a close match.
*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): OG, SKADE, Movistar Riders, Mousesports
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Ranked in Order): Movistar Riders, K23, FPX
*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): smooya, ropz, valde, SHiPZ, dennyslaw, n0rb3r7, mou, frozen, flameZ
*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): mantuu, dycha, glowiing, Rainwaker, alex, oxygen, Aleksib, fame, duplicate, adreN.