CS:GO DFS Playbook: BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 4.17.2021 (2- Match)

Heroic (Ranked 3rd in World) @ 9z (Ranked 88th in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -1250/9z +620

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +260/Under -385

*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*Heroic For Event (2 Maps): cadiaN 1.56 Rating, refrezh 1.49, TeSeS 1.42, sjuush 1.32, stavn 1.13.

*Heroic For Last Three Months of Play (46 Maps): cadiaN 1.16 Rating, stavn 1.10, TeSeS 1.09, refrezh 1.06, sjuush 1.06.

*9z For Event (3 Maps): try 1.57 Rating, max 1.27, EasTor 1.03, bit 0.91, dgt 0.89.

*9z For the Last Three Months of Play (30 Maps): try 1.24 Rating, max 1.21, dgt 1.11, bit 1.05. EasTor 1.05.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches.

MAPS: 

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Vertigo for 9z. 9z is going with Mirage lately, while Heroic continues to go with Nuke.

*Heroic on Nuke (6 Maps): refrezh 1.35 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 86.5 ADR. TeSeS 1.17, cadiaN 1.15, stavn 1.04, sjuush 0.91. On Mirage (8 Maps): stavn 1.24 Rating, refrezh 1.13, cadiaN 1.12, sjuush 1.01, TeSeS 0.97.

*9z on Mirage (6 Maps): try 1.35 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 92.3 ADR. dgt 1.31, bit 1.09, max 0.87. On Nuke (7 Maps): max 1.51 Rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.62 IMP, 98.0 ADR. try 1.41, bit 1.11, dgt 0.97, EasTor 0.93.

Analysis: I am not going to sit here and say that this will be an upset. I think that Heroic is playing at the highest level of CS that is close to possible at this moment. They are having a “Gambit-like” run at the moment, winning 11-straight. There always comes a time when the things that are continually surging in the up-wards trend, to finally hit reality (or regression?) and start to come back to Earth. The Books are favoring Heroic mightily, and they likely will win this, but make no doubt – this 9z team did beat Vitality (I know, I know, they haven’t been great, but still have been a literal top-ranked team). Also, they have some pretty damn talented young up-and-coming players in try and max. dgt is a career 1.10 rating guy, while EasTor comes from top-tier competitive play already. I think we see a good match here. Think it’s either Heroic 2-0 or 2-1.

 

Gambit (Ranked 1st in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World)

Betting Odds: Gambit -255/FURIA +190

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -135

*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*Gambit For Event (2 Maps): Hobbit 1.83 Rating, sh1ro 1.72, Nafany 1.41, Ax1Le 1.23, interz 1.04.

*Gambit For the Last Three Months of Play (73 Maps): sh1ro 1.26 Rating, Hobbit 1.20, Ax1Le 1.19, Nafany 1.05, interz 0.97.

*FURIA For Event (2 Maps): yuurih 1.28 Rating, junior 1.11, arT 1.09, KSCERATO 1.06, VINI 1.01.

*FURIA For the Last Three Months of Play (47 Maps): KSCERATO 1.13 Rating, yuurih 1.12, arT 1.09, VINI 1.03, junior 0.97.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have once in recent memory with Gambit winning in a 2-1 decision with results of 16-9 on Mirage and 16-8 on Vertigo. FURIA won Inferno 16-13 to force the third map.

*Top Performers for Gambit (3 Maps): sh1ro +26 K-D Diff, 1.31 Rating, 79.2 ADR. Ax1Le +16 K-D Diff, 1.22 Rating, 73.8 ADR. Hobbit +13 K-D Diff, 1.17 Rating, 83.4 ADR.

*Top Performers for FURIA (3 Maps): KSCERATO +3 K-D Diff, 1.04 Rating, 80.6 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Nuke for Gambit. I believe we see Inferno again for FURIA here and Overpass for Gambit.

*Gambit on Overpass (16 Maps): Hobbit 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 84.6 ADR. sh1ro 1.17, Ax1Le 1.15, Nafany 1.13, interz 0.98. On Inferno (14 Maps): Ax1Le 1.25 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 87.2 ADR. sh1ro 1.21, Hobbit 1.12, interz 0.94, Nafany 0.89.

Analysis: I am generally a firm believer in a few pretty important factors when determining where you will lie on a match like this. FURIA has quite a bit on their side here. They have revenge narrative and it’s pretty strong, as they were ousted by Gambit from the ESL Pro League just roughly a smidge under a month ago. FURIA is a really good CS team, but at the same time, the only match Gambit has really lost lately is the Pro League Finals to Heroic. The last two teams that FURIA lost to, you say? Heroic and Gambit.  I think the value is on FURIA here. Do I think they win? Yes. I Do. Very Close.

 

*TOP STACKS: Heroic, FURIA

*TOP CPT PLAYS: cadiaN, yuurih, KSCERATO, sh1ro, Hobbit, try

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: stavn, refrezh, arT, Ax1Le, max, junior, VINI, TeSeS, dgt