CS:GO DFS Playbook: BLAST Premier Spring Showdown – 4.16.2021 (2-Match)

OG (Ranked 19th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: OG -130/G2 +100

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*OG For Event (2 Maps): valde 1.39 Rating, mantuu 1.24, Aleksib 1.15, flameZ 1.10, niko 0.97.

*OG For the Last Three Months of Play (51 Maps): Valde 1.14 Rating, mantuu 1.10, flameZ 1.10, niko 1.04, Aleksib 1.00.

*G2 For Event (2 Maps): NiKo 1.37 Rating, huNter 1.28, nexa 1.10, JaCkz 1.04, AmaNEk 1.02.

*G2 For the Last Month of Play (43 Maps): NiKo 1.12 Rating, huNter 1.09, nexa 0.99, AmaNEk 0.97, JaCkz 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played a total of three times over the last calendar year with G2 winning two of those three. OG won the most recent match 2-0 at the DreamHack Open Fall 2020 Event with results of 16-14 on Nuke and 16-9 on Mirage. The prior two matches won by G2 saw three maps both matches.

*Top Performers for G2 vs OG (8 Maps): NiKo +34 K-D Diff, 1.22 K-D, 1.22 Rating. nexa +5 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

*Top Performers for OG vs G2 (8 Maps): Aleksib +25 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.21 Rating. mantuu +13 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.06 Rating. valde +8 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.07 Rating. niko (15 Maps): +23 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.11 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for OG. OG is going with Mirage as their first choice lately, while G2 continues go with Dust2.

*OG on Mirage (7 Maps): valde 1.06 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 75.8 ADR. mantuu 1.04, niko 0.85, Aleksib 0.74. On Dust2 (11 Maps): valde 1.08 Rating, Aleksib 1.07, mantuu 1.06, niko 1.03, flameZ 0.99.

*G2 on Dust2 (6 Maps): NiKo 1.31 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 89.4 ADR. huNter 1.06, AmaNEk 1.00, nexa 0.89, JaCkz 0.76. On Mirage (10 Maps): NiKo 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 79.9 ADR. huNter 1.14, JaCkz 1.04, nexa 1.01, AmaNEk 0.91.

Analysis: I believe that everyone is inflating the OG love here mainly because they swept Astralis, who has been struggling maybe more than any other team in competitive CS right now. On the other hand, we have seen that NiKo is getting more and more comfy in his AWP-hybrid role and they aren’t getting much love because they had “softer” first round matchup for this Event against Endpoint (which people don’t know they are actually a pretty good team and had flameZ before OG acquired him also) and they swept that match. I like G2 here. OG is still boot-camping here with two new faces. I think this is their toughest test yet by far.

 

Dignitas (Ranked 28th in World) @ Spirit (Ranked 9th in World)

Betting Odds: Spirit -240/Dignitas +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*Dignitas For Event (2 Maps): HEAP 1.57 Rating, Lekr0 1.56, f0rest 1.14, hallzerk 1.01, friberg 0.84.

*Dignitas For the Last Three Months of Play (45 Maps): Lekr0 1.14 Rating, f0rest 1.13, HEAP 1.09, hallzerk 1.04, friberg 0.94.

*Spirit For Event (2 Maps): choppe 1.52, degster 1.46, mir 1.44, sdy 1.23, magixx 1.02

*Spirit For the Last Three Months of Play (45 Maps): degster 1.27 Rating, mir 1.26, chopper 1.09, sdy 1.08, magixx 1.06.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played and recent H2H matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for Dignitas and Vertigo for Spirit. I think we see Dust2 for Spirit and Nuke for Dignitas.

*Dignitas on Nuke (15 Map): f0rest 1.23 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 83.9 ADR. Lekr0 1.18, hallzerk 1.14, HEAP 1.09, friberg 0.94. On Dust2 (14 Maps): f0rest 1.12 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 81.7 ADR. Lekr0 1.10, hallzerk 1.07, HEAP 1.00, friberg 0.84.

*Spirit on Dust2 (9 Maps): mir 1.42 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 93.5 ADR. degster 1.28, chopper 1.23, magixx 1.17, sdy 1.06. On Nuke (7 Maps): mir 1.33 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.55 IMP, 95.3 ADR. degster 1.28, magixx 1.13, sdy 1.09, chopper 1.05.

Analysis: Everyone and their brother will be on Spirit here, and everything that we have seen on paper here and how the books are leaning screams a Spirit win here. I think DIG is going to easily be the leverage on this slate. They may not win, but the value is absolutely on them. They did look very, very good against Liquid in the opening match of this Event, and I hate to say it – Extra Salt is NOT that good. I think Dignitas can give them a run here.

 

*TOP STACKS: G2, Dignitas

*TOP CPT PLAYS: NiKo, f0rest, huNter, mir, degster, mantuu

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: Lekr0, valde, nexa, HEAP, AmaNEk, chopper, JaCkz