CS:GO DFS Playbook: BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2021 – 4.13.2021 (3-Match)

Spirit (Ranked 9th in World) @ Extra Salt (21st in World)

Betting Odds: Spirit -770/Extra Salt +455

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +170/Under -235

*This is a best of three match for the Round of 16 for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Evet.

*Spirit For the Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps): degster 1.26 Rating, mir 1.25, sdy 1.08, chopper 1.07, magixx 1.06.

*Spirit For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): degster 1.36 Rating, mir 1.28, magixx 1.16, sdy 1.06, chopper 1.04.

*Extra Salt For the Last Three Months of Play (68 Maps): oSee 1.37 Rating, Sonic 1.17, FaNg 1.14, MarKE 1.11, JT 1.05.

*Extra Salt For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): oSee 1.38 Rating, Sonic 1.31, MarKE 1.18, FaNg 1.13, JT 1.03.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for Extra Salt and Vertigo for Spirit. I believe we see Spirit roll with Dust2 here while Extra Salt likely goes with Overpass. Spirit winning Dust2 88% of their last eight tries to Extra Salt’s 62% over their last 8. Extra Salt winning 92% of their last 12 maps played on Overpass compared to Spirit’s 60% on Overpass over their last 5 played there.

*Spirit on Dust2 (9 Maps): mir 1.41 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 92.6 ADR. degster 1.29, magixx 1.21, chopper 1.18, sdy 1.04. On Overpass (5 Maps): degster 1.37 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 91.1 ADR. mir 1.23, chopper 1.14, sdy 1.12, magixx 0.97.

*Extra Salt on Overpass (10 Maps): oSee 1.41 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 87.4 ADR. MarKE 1.20, Sonic 1.15, FaNg 1.15, JT 1.14. On Dust2 (8 Maps): MarKE 1.29 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 82.1 ADR. oSee 1.25, Sonic 1.17, JT 1.07, FaNg 1.00.

Analysis: I believe we could see three maps here for this match. Overpass is such a strong map for Extra Salt, but we have to also look at the competition that they have faced leading up to this Event. It was not that great. They have played a couple top 50 rated teams lately, and have won, but they haven’t faced a team with the talent that Spirit has yet. I am eager to see how this plays out. I think we could see three maps though if they string together a good Overpass map like they have recently. Still believe Spirit wins either 2-0 or 2-1 here.

 

Gambit (Ranked 1st in World) @ NASR (Ranked 135th in World)

Betting Odds: Gambit -5000/NASR +1115

Map Odds: 2.5 OVER +335/Under -525

*This is a best of three match for the Round of 16 for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*Gambit For the Last Three Months of Play (77 Maps): sh1ro 1.25 Rating, Ax1Le 1.20, Hobbit 1.19, Nafany 1.06, interz 0.98.

*Gambit For the Last Month of Play (31 Maps): sh1ro 1.29 Rating, Ax1Le 1.26, Hobbit 1.23, Nafany 1.12, interz 0.97.

*NASR For the Last Three Months of Play (8 Maps): REAL1ZE 1.25 Rating, BOROS 1.22, gejmzilla 1.17, Bibu 1.15, Dementor 0.93.

*NASR For the Last Month of Play (8 Maps): See Above 3 Month Ratings.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for Gambit and Overpass for NASR. Both teams will ban their opponents best map choices. Overpass is likely going to go with Vertigo and I think we see Dust2 for NASR. Gambit is winning Vertigo 92% of their last 13 attempts, while NASR has yet to play Vertigo. NASR is winning Dust2 75% of the time over their last four maps played there, while Gambit is winning 60% of their last 12 tries there.

*Gambit On Vertigo (13 Maps): Ax1LE 1.34 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 90.9 ADR. sh1ro 1.27, Hobbit 1.24, Nafany 1.10, interz 1.07. On Dust2 (12 Maps): sh1ro 1.20 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 78.4 ADR. Hobbit 1.11, Ax1Le 1.08, Nafany 0.99, interz 0.92.

*NASR On Dust2 (3 Maps): REAL1ZE 1.53 Rating, 1.03 KPR, 1.65 IMP, 89.6 ADR. gejmzilla 1.40, Bibu 1.37, BOROS 1.29, Dementor 1.18. No maps play for Vertigo.

Analysis: This NASR team gets a really unlucky draw as their opener of this Event, however, they are the last seed in this Event, as well, so that’s just how it goes. NASR has played one decent team in their six matches played and that was Endpoint and they got beat 0-2 in a best of three match. I think Gambit likely mops this match up pretty easily. Gambit “should” win this match 2-0. Depends on how motivated they are after losing the Grand Final of the ESL Pro League two days ago. This should be a rebound match here to get them back in business.

 

FURIA (Ranked 7th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 27th in World)

Betting Odds: FURIA -455/MIBR +305

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -172

*This is a best of three match for the Round of 16 for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown Event.

*FURIA For the Last Three Months of Play (45 Maps): KSCERATO 1.13 Rating, yuurih 1.12, arT 1.09, VINI 1.03, junior 0.96.

*FUIRA For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): KSCERATO 1.16 Rating, arT 1.15, yuurih 1.12, VINI 1.10, junior 0.93.

*MIBR For the Last Three Months of Play (47 Maps): exit 1.14, chelo 1.10 Rating, boltz 1.04, shz 1.03, yel 0.96.

*MIBR For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): chelo 1.19 Rating, exit 1.16, shz 1.03, boltz 1.00, yel 0.91.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams played a best of three at the ESL Pro League with FURIA winning both maps with scores of 16-8 on Inferno and 16-8 on Overpass.

*Top Performers for FURIA (2 Maps): arT +20 K-D Diff, 1.66 Rating, 107.0 ADR. KSCERATO +16 K-D Diff, 1.33 Rating, 79.4 ADR. VINI +12 K-D Diff, 1.34 Rating, 87.3 ADR.

*No player for MIBR was positive, shz was the closest by far a -1 K-D Diff, 0.84 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Nuke for MIBR. I think we see Vertigo for MIBR and Inferno for FURIA. FURIA has won 56% of their last nine tries on Inferno, while MIBR has wont just 25% of their last eight attempts there. MIBR has won 43% of their last seven Vertigo maps played, while FURIA has won three of their last four maps there.

*FURIA On Inferno (9 Maps): KSCERATO 1.22 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 83.6 ADR. yuurih 1.15, VINI 1.11, arT 1.07, Junior 1.07. On Vertigo (4 Maps): Yuurih 1.32 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 94.4 ADR. KSCERATO 1.25, arT 1.17, VINI 1.12, Junior 1.03.

*MIBR On Vertigo (7 Maps): exit 1.40 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 89.4 ADR. shz 1.18, chelo 1.08, boltz 1.04, yel 0.95. On Inferno (8 Maps): exit 1.16 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.92 IMP, 75.5 ADR. boltz 1.03, chelo 0.97, yel 0.96, shz 0.91.

Analysis: I think the exit pick-up will help MIBR as a team ultimately quite a bit down the road, but this being their first match played with him against a top team like FURIA, I just don’t see them making waves here. FURIA had a nice run in the Pro League and had it ended by Gambit. I think FURIA is a dark-horse to win this Event and I think they start this one off with a bang and a 2-0 win over MIBR.

*TOP STACKS: Gambit, FURIA, Spirit

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Extra Salt,

*TOP CPT PLAYS: sh1ro, Ax1Le, Hobbit, KSCERATO, yuurih, arT, mir, degster, oSee

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: Nafany, magixx, VINI, Sonic, chopper, sdy, chelo, shz