CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 4.3.2021 (2-Match)

Virtus.Pro (Ranked 4th in World) @ ENCE (Ranked 25th in World)

Betting Odds: Virtus.Pro -345/ENCE +245

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155

*This is a best of three match for the ESL Pro League Season 13 first round of playoffs.

*V.Pro For Event (12 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.33 Rating, Jame 1.19, buster 1.11, Qikert 0.96, SANJI 0.94.

*V.Pro For the Last Three Months of Play (49 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.29 Rating, Jame 1.23, buster 1.08, Qikert 1.00, SANJI 0.95.

*ENCE For Event (13 Maps): Spinx 1.05 Rating, Snappi 0.94, allu 0.91, doto 0.90, dycha 0.86.

*ENCE For the Last Three Months of Play (32 Maps): dycha 1.11 Rating, Spinx 1.07, allu 0.99, doto 0.97, Snappi 0.95.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Vertigo for ENCE. I believe we see Train for ENCE and Inferno for V.Pro.

*V.Pro on Inferno (10 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.23 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 89.6 ADR. Jame 1.21, buster 1.18, Qikert 1.02, SANJI 0.98. On Train (6 Maps): buster 1.08 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.93 IMP, 73.6 ADR. Jame 1.06, YEKINDAR 1.06, Qikert 0.91, SANJI 0.84.

*ENCE on Train (6 Maps): Spinx 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.47 IMP, 89.6 ADR. doto 1.03, dycha 1.02, allu 1.01, Snappi 0.95. On Inferno (4 Maps): dycha 1.07 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 78.6 ADR. Spinx 1.05, Snappi 0.80, allu 0.75, doto 0.73.

Analysis: This match “SHOULD” go the way of V.Pro pretty easily. ENCE barely squeaked their way into this playoff round, and they really didn’t exactly look great doing it. They did however beat G2, Vitality, and Mousesports in three of their five matches played in Group play. Either way, V.Pro is literally a top-3 team in the World and they have been playing well together. They lost in their final match of group play against Liquid and they looked awful. I think this is a tune-up game for their first-round match.

 

Complexity (Ranked 9th in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 1st in World)

Betting Odds: NaVi -200/Complexity +150

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +100/Under -135

*This is a best of three match for the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event first-round of playoffs.

*Complexity For Event (11 Maps): blameF 1.21 Rating, poizon 1.16, k0nfig 1.06, jks 1.01, RUSH 0.94.

*Complexity For the Last Three Months of Play (38 Maps): blameF 1.20 Rating, poizon 1.13, k0nfig 1.08, jks 0.98, RUSH 0.95.

*NaVi For Event (12 Maps): s1mple 1.32 Rating, electronic 1.08, flamie 1.02, Boombl4 0.93, Perfecto 0.92.

*NaVi For the Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps): s1mple 1.35 Rating, electronic 1.08, Boombl4 1.03, Perfecto 1.03, flamie 0.98.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played seven best of three matches in the last calendar year with NaVi winning four of the seven matches played. The last two matches played were split with a win a piece and both matches went the full three-map distance.

*Complexity vs NaVi (13 Maps): +32 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.14 Rating. poizon +14 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.06 Rating. k0nfig +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*NaVi vs Complexity (13 Maps): s1mple +57 K-D Diff, 1.28 K-D, 1.16 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for NaVi, and Train for Complexity. I believe we see Mirage for Complexity and Nuke for NaVi.

*NaVi on Nuke (11 Maps): s1mple 1.43 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.54 IMP, 91.2 ADR. Perfecto 1.07, electronic 1.04, flamie 1.02, Boombl4 0.99. On Mirage (7 Maps): s1mple 1.35 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 85.2 ADR. electronic 1.19, Perfecto 0.97, Boombl4 0.96, flamie 0.92.

*Complexity on Mirage (14 Maps): blameF 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 79.7 ADR. k0nfig 1.16, poizon 1.13, jks 1.04, RUSH 0.94. On Nuke (7 Maps): blameF 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 84.1 ADR. poizon 1.10, k0nfig 0.92, RUSH 0.91, jks 0.90.

Analysis: I think we do likely see a three-map affair here with this match. I believe it is detrimental to play s1mple (as most will), especially if playing 1-3 lineups. If playing multiples, I could see taking some shots with out him. For this match winner however, I believe NaVi likely pulls out a win on the coat-tails of s1mple. I think we see Dust2 for the decider and that is s1mple’s literal best map in Pro play. Complexity could shock us here, I think this match is closer than the odds say. I do have NaVi taking it though 2-1.

 

*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): Virtus.Pro, NaVi, Complexity

*TOP TOURNAMENT STACKS (Ranked in Order): Complexity

*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): s1mple, YEKINDAR, Jame, blameF, poizon

*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): Qikert, Spinx, Perfecto, k0nfig, SANJI, flamie, jks