CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.29.2021 (3-Match)
Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) @ fnatic (Ranked 17th in World)
Betting Odds: Astralis -385/fnatic +270
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -170
*This is a best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*This is the final day of matches for Group D and more so there are teams playing for seeding, including Astralis locking up the #1 seed with a win over fnatic today. Liquid and V.Pro will be playing for the 2nd and 3rd seed (and are locked into the Playoffs either way), but if Astralis wins, they likely won’t be as primed to win as it won’t matter for 2 and 3-seeds.
*fnatic have only won one match so far in League play and that was a 2-1 result over Evil Geniuses two matches ago. Astralis dropped their opening match to Evil Geniuses in League play and have since reeled off three-straight wins with two coming via the 2-0 sweep.
*Astralis For Event (10 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, dupreeh 1.14, Magisk 1.09, gla1ve 1.02, Xyp9x 0.96.
*Astralis For the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): device 1.18 Rating, dupreeh 1.13, gla1ve 1.02, Magisk 1.02, Xyp9x 0.99.
*fnatic For Event (9 Maps): KRIMZ 1.03 Rating, Brollan 0.99, Jackinho 0.93, JW 0.80, Golden 0.78.
*fnatic For the Last Three Months of Play (24 Maps): KRIMZ 1.09 Rating, Brollan 1.05, Jackinho 0.99, Golden 0.86, JW 0.85.
H2H DATA:
*These two squads have faced each other six total times during the 2020 calendar year with Astralis winning all but two of those matches, and have won the last three played, as well. It is interesting to note that four of the six matches did reach three maps however.
*Top Performers for Astralis (14 Maps): device +38 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.15 Rating. Magisk +18 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.10 Rating. dupreeh +12 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.09 Rating.
*Top Performers for fnatic (14 Maps): Brollan +35 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.13 Rating. KRIMZ +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.03 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Nuke for fnatic. I believe we see Overpass for fnatic and Dust2 for Astralis.
*Astralis on Dust2 (7 Maps): device 1.22 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 77.5 ADR. Xyp9x 1.12, dupreeh 1.06, Magisk 1.02, gla1ve 0.99. On Overpass (5 Maps): device 1.27 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 80.7 ADR. dupreeh 1.14, Xyp9x 0.97, Magisk 0.95, gla1ve 0.88.
Fnatic on Overpass (5 Maps): KRIMZ 1.16 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 93.4 ADR. Jackinho 1.04, Brollan 0.99, Golden 0.86, JW 0.85. On Dust2 (2 Maps): Brollan 0.84 KPR, 0.54 KPR, 0.94 IMP, 66.0 ADR. Jackinho 0.77, JW 0.73, KRIMZ 0.72, Golden 0.69.
Analysis: We always discuss how the final days of these group play matches turn into craziness. Astralis is the largest favorite on the slate and have the most to play for here trying to gain and lock down the 1-seed for this group. Fnatic literally have nothing to play for but spoiling that intent for Astralis. There’s something dangerous about a team that has zero pressure, playing a team that has ALL the pressure. Fnatic could steal a map, but I think Astralis will out-last here and take this 2-1.
Liquid (Ranked 5th in World) @ Virtus.Pro (Ranked 4th in World)
Betting Odds: V.Pro -165/Liquid +125
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -110
*This is a best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*This match likely decides what team will get the 2-seed and what team will get the 3-seed for Group D play.
*Liquid have won three of the four matches they have played so far and have swept all their wins to boot. V.Pro have swept two of their three wins, with their only three-mappers going to Evil Geniuses in a 2-1 win and Astralis with their only loss at a 1-2 result.
*Liquid For Event (8 Maps): FalleN 1.22 Rating, EliGE 1.22, Stewie2K 1.14, NAF 1.09, Grim 1.02.
*Liquid For the Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps): EliGE 1.19 Rating, NAF 1.14, FalleN 1.02, Stewie2k 1.00, Grim 0.99.
*V.Pro for Event (10 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.30 Rating, Jame 1.20, buster 1.14, Qikert 0.97, SANJI 0.95.
*V.Pro For the Last Three Months of Play (47 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.28 Rating, Jame 1.23, buster 1.08, Qikert 1.00, SANJI 0.95.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have played once in 2021 with their roster cores the same as today. Virtus.Pro won the match 2-0 with results of 16-12 on Mirage and 16-9 on Dust2.
*Top Performers for Liquid (2 Maps): NAF was the top stat-line at -1 KD-Diff, 0.96 Rating, 75.5 ADR.
*Top Performers for V.Pro (2 Maps): Jame +27 K-D Diff, 1.59 Rating, 91.0 ADR. YEKINDAR +18 K-D Diff, 1.50 Rating, 103.5 ADR. buster +3 K-D Diff, 1.07 Rating, 67.2 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Nuke for V.Pro. I believe we see Vertigo for Liquid and Dust2 for V.Pro.
*Liquid on Vertigo (2 Maps): Stewie2K 1.59 Rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.90 IMP, 92.8 ADR. EliGE 1.34, Fallen 1.32, NAF 1.19, Grim 1.02. On Dust2 (2 Maps): EliGE 1.23 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 96.9 ADR. FalleN 0.90, NAF 0.68, Grim 0.67, Stewie2K 0.62.
*V.Pro on Dust2 (2 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.35 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.81 IMP, 103.2 ADR. SANJI 1.29, buster 1.08, Jame 0.99, Qikert 0.66. On Vertigo (3 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.27 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.71 IMP, 87.7 ADR. buster 1.05, Jame 0.97, Qikert 0.93, SANJI 0.84.
Analysis: This is by far likely the closest match on the slate and these two teams are very evenly matched and both have great recent form for League play. Liquid do have a slight bit of revenge narrative much like Astralis did with their loss to V.Pro at IEM Katowice Event this year. I think we see a banger three-map affair here, and I think Liquid has more than a chance at winning this match today. Love players on both sides of this match – mainly YEKINDAR, EliGE, Jame, FalleN.
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 14th in World) @ EndPoint (Ranked 36th in World)
Betting Odds: Evil Geniuses -250/EndPoint +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under 150
*This is a best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Both teams here have zero to play for, but EndPoint can work on their World rank with a win against a top team like EG, so that could be worthier for them to push for the win here. EG looked checked out yesterday against Liquid and I don’t really think they have much interest in this match today.
*EG For Event (11 Maps): Brehze 1.19 Rating, CeRq 1.08, oBo 0.97, Tarik 0.95, Stanislaw 0.90.
*EG For the Last Three Months of Play (42 Maps): Brehze 1.09 Rating, CeRq 1.00, oBo 0.97, Tarik 0.93, Stanislaw 0.87.
*EndPoint For Event (8 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.02 Rating, flameZ 0.97, robiin 0.94, Surreal 0.84, MiGHTYMAX 0.80.
*EndPoint For the Last Three Months of Play (62 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.12 Rating, flameZ 1.10, robiin 1.08, Surreal 1.01, MiGHTYMAX 0.95.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for EG and Nuke for EndPoint. I believe we see Train for EndPoint and Inferno for EG.
*EndPoint on Train (5 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.23 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 77.8 ADR. MiGHTYMAX 1.22, robiin 1.07, flameZ 1.03, Surreal 0.94. On Inferno (14 Maps): flameZ 1.16 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 77.9 ADR. CRUC1AL 1.15, robiin 1.11, Surreal 1.01, MiGHTYMAX 0.92.
Evil Geniuses on Inferno (14 Maps): CeRq 1.12 Rating, 0.67 KPR, 0.96 IMP, 70.6 ADR. oBo 1.09, Brehze 1.04, Tarik 1.01, Stanislaw 0.90. On Train (6 Maps): Brehze 1.31 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 96.2 ADR. oBo (1 Map) 1.24, Tarik 1.02, CeRq 0.98, Stanislaw 0.80.
Analysis: Again, I just have to question how interested EG will be in playing this match against a lower-ranked team. EndPoint could easily come out firing and inspired on gaining more clout in the World ranks, and I think that makes them a very dangerous team here. I like the map choices and I think that EndPoint will easily give them a run here, if not win the match. EG ready to take a break and move onto the next Event in my opinion.
*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): Astralis, V.Pro, Liquid EndPoint
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Ranked in Order): EndPoint, Liquid, fnatic
*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): device, YEKINDAR, EliGE, Jame, CRUC1AL, flameZ, dupreeh, KRIMZ
*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): buster, FalleN, Brollan, Xyp9x, Jackinho, Grim, SANJI, robiin, MiGHTYMAX