CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.27.2021 (3-Match)

Fnatic (Ranked 17th in World) @ Evil Geniuses (Ranked 14th in World)

Betting Odds: Evil Geniuses -250/fnatic +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125

*This is a best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Things have not gotten off to the best start to League play here for fnatic as they find themselves in a 0-2 hole to start play, while EG started strong with a 2-1 victory over Astralis before falling on Friday to Virtus.Pro.

*fnatic For Event (4 Maps): KRIMZ 1.02 Rating, Brollan 0.98, Golden 0.84, Jackinho 0.83, JW 0.81.

*fnatic For the Last Three Months of Play (19 Maps): KRIMZ 1.10 Rating, Brollan 1.06, Jackinho 0.98, Golden 0.89, JW 0.87.

*EG For Event (5 Maps): Brehze 1.28 Rating, CeRq 1.02, oBo 0.97, Tarik 0.92, Stanislaw 0.87.

*EG For the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): Brehze 1.09 Rating, CeRq 0.98, oBo 0.97, Tarik 0.92, Stanislaw 0.86.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams haven’t played since 2019, and both teams have new faces. No need to analyze that data.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for EG and Nuke for fnatic. I believe we see fnatic go back to Overpass since they have found some reason to continue to choose it over and over again, and I think we see EG go with Inferno.

*fnatic on Overpass (5 maps) KRIMZ 1.16 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 93.4 ADR. Jackino 1.04, Brollan 0.99, Golden 0.86, JW 0.85. On Inferno (5 Maps): Brollan 1.14 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 79.1 ADR. KRIMZ 1.14, Jackinho 0.98, Golden 0.94, JW 0.87.

*Evil Geniuses on Inferno (12 Maps): oBo (2 Maps) 1.16 Rating. CeRq 1.10 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 0.93 IMP, 69.0 ADR. Brehze 1.05, Tarik 0.98, Stanislaw 0.89. On Overpass (3 Maps): Brehze 1.16 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 85.9 ADR. oBo (1 Map) 1.05, CeRq 0.88, Tarik 0.70, Stanislaw 0.66.

Analysis: I have literally found zero reasons why I can trust fnatic against any team in this whole Event, much less a top team like EG. I think EG likely takes care of business here. Virtus.Pro is a damn good team and EG ran them to the wire on a three-map affair. I truly believe that V.Pro would absolutely smash fnatic.

 

Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Virtus.Pro (Ranked 4th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -125/V.Pro -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125

*This is a best of three match for Group D in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Astralis found a 2-0 sweeping victory over Liquid on Friday after losing 1-2 in their opener to Evil Geniuses, and Virtus.Pro are now 2-0 for League Play after beating EndPoint 2-0 in their opener and staving off Evil Geniuses late in a 2-1 victory on Friday.

*Astralis For Event (5 Maps): device 1.39 Rating, dupreeh 1.09, Magisk 1.09, Xyp9x 0.88, gla1ve 0.88.

*Astralis For the last Month of Play (5 Maps): See For Event.

*V.Pro For Event (5 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.39 Rating, Jame 1.25, buster 1.11, Qikert 0.97, SANJI 0.95.

*V.Pro for the Last Month of Play (11 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.30 Rating, Jame 1.22, buster 0.98, Qikert 0.90, SANJI 0.87.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams played once at IEM Katowice in February with V.Pro winning 2-1 with scores of 16-11 on Inferno and 16-10 on Overpass. Astralis did win Train 16-12.

*Top Performers for Astralis (3 Maps): device +10 K-D Diff, 1.18 Rating, 72.3 ADR. Magisk +1 K-D Diff, 1.04 Rating, 70.1 ADR.

*Top Performers for V.Pro (3 Maps): YEKINDAR +18 K-D Diff, 1.37 Rating, 74.0 ADR. buster +14 K-D Diff, 1.14 Rating, 74.0 ADR. Qikert +5 K-D Diff, 1.12 Rating, 74.2 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Mirage for Astralis. I believe we see Train for Astralis and Dust2 for V.Pro.

*Astralis on Train (3 Maps): Device 1.25 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 77.2 ADR. dupreeh 1.15, gla1ve 1.10, Xyp9x 1.04, Magisk 0.96. On Dust2 (6 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 76.1 ADR. Xyp9x 1.07, dupreeh 1.04, Magisk 0.99, gla1ve 0.93.

*V.Pro on Dust2 (9 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 85.0 ADR. Jame 1.21, Qikert 1.06, SANJI 0.99, buster 0.99. On Train (4 Maps): buster 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.98 IMP, 74.4 ADR. Jame 0.97, YEKINDAR 0.95, SANJI 0.81, Qikert 0.80.

Analysis: I think the odds tell a WHOLE story here. Why is Astralis favored? That is the question, right? We have seen Virtus.Pro go 2-0 already in this Event, and Astralis lost their first match. Maybe…Just Maybe, they have REVENGE on their mind from IEM Katowice? If you don’t think Astralis has thought about this rematch since that lost, you have lost your mind. This match is already going to be a banger, but Astralis will be out for blood.

 

EndPoint (Ranked 36th in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 5th in World)

Betting Odds: Liquid -475/EndPoint +320

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -175

*This is a best of three match for Group C in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*EndPoint got back in the winning column after beating fnatic 2-0 on Friday, while Liquid were on the opposite side of that spectrum taking an 0-2 sweeping loss to Astralis.

*EndPoint For Event (4 Maps): robiin 1.06 Rating, CRUC1AL 1.05, flameZ 1.05, MiGHTYMAX 0.92, Surreal 0.84.

*EndPoint For the Last Month of Play (35 Maps): flameZ 1.12 Rating, CRUC1AL 1.12, robiin 1.09, Surreal 1.00, MiGHTYMAX 0.92.

*Liquid For Event (4 Maps): EliGE 1.19 Rating, FalleN 1.17, Stewie2K 1.09, Grim 1.02, NAF 0.97.

*Liquid For the Last Month of Play (13 Maps): EliGE 1.20 Rating, NAF 1.08, Stewie2k 1.01, Grim 1.01, FalleN 0.96.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have no recent head-to-head matches played.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Nuke for Endpoint. I think we see Liquid go with Mirage while EndPoint (which typically chooses Train as their first map) will go with Dust2.

*Liquid on Mirage (2 Maps): NAF 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 85.6 ADR. Stewie2K 1.19, Grim 1.16, EliGE 0.87, FalleN 0.75. On Dust2 (3 Maps): EliGE 1.13 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 92.4 ADR. FalleN 0.93, NAF 0.78, Grim 0.67, Stewie2K 0.53.

EndPoint on Dust2 (7 Maps): CRUC1AL 1.14 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 74.9 ADR. robiin 1.11, Surreal 1.06, flameZ 1.03, MiGHTYMAX 0.81. On Mirage (9 Maps): Surreal 1.14 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 78.7 ADR. robiin 1.10, flameZ 1.05, CRUC1AL 1.04, MiGHTYMAX 0.92.

Analysis: Most definitely feels like the books are expecting a bounce-back from Liquid here and in theory, they should. However, I am not exactly in unison with that, and I think that EndPoint will once again go well under-valued here. These guys were on a seven-match win streak before losing the opener to V.Pro, and are once again on a three-match winning streak after qualifying for the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2021 with a 2-1 victory over DBL PONEY and a 2-0 sweep over a decent Sprout team. If Liquid slips any at all here, they could be looking at another loss in League play.

 

*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): Evil Geniuses, Astralis, V.Pro, Liquid

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Ranked in Order): EndPoint, V.Pro

*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): Brehze, device, YEKINDAR, EliGE, CRUC1AL, Jame, FalleN, CeRq

*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): robiin, Surreal, Magisk, Xyp9x, Tarik, buster, flameZ, oBo