2020 MLB Draft Guide: Understanding Launch Angles

Baseball always seems at its peak in popularity when home runs are being hit. After the strike in 1994 it was always the home run chase between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in 1998 that “saved baseball.” Years later that chase would be marred for other reasons, but people were coming to the ballpark and watching on tv to see the majestic bombs those two guys hit. There was the marketing campaign of “chicks dig the long ball” and so on. There’s not much better than watching a ball soar out of the ballpark as long as it is your team (or your fantasy player) that is doing it.

Home runs are being hit at a ridiculous rate right now, and while some chalk it up to the way Major League Baseball is producing baseballs, some of it also has to do with hitter’s newer focus on Launch Angle. Those of you who aren’t super into the new fangled stats might be asking what launch angle is exactly. By definition, it is the vertical angle that the ball leaves the player’s bat when being struck. Average launch angle is, exactly what it sounds like, the average of launch angles by all batted ball events. Generally, a launch angle of less than 10 degrees will result in a ground ball, 10-25 degrees will produce a line drive, a fly ball is anywhere from 25-50 degrees, and a pop up is greater than 50 degrees.

How does this help try to predict player’s numbers? Obviously, the players who hit in the higher line drive area and get the ball in the air more have a better chance of hitting the ball out of the ballpark. The sweet spot for launch angle falls between 19 to 30 degrees. Lower than that and the ball might not have enough lift to get out of the ballpark. Higher than that and the batter could have gotten under the ball too much and it will go higher in the air and not far enough to clear the fence. However, it isn’t just launch angle. Many times this stat is also coupled with exit velocity, or how fast the ball comes off the bat. For more on that please go to Understanding Exit Velocity by Greg Jewett which is also in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide.

Not only are fantasy players obsessed with launch angle, but hitters are paying attention to it, and coaches are coaching based on it. So it appears it isn’t only chicks that dig the long ball. While launch angle can lead to more home runs, focusing on the angle at which the ball leaves your bat has also led to increased strikeouts. Hitters are selling out consistency to an extent, in a trade off for more balls leaving the yard. That is incredibly evident if you look at statistics. In 2016 there were 5,610 home runs hit and batters struck out 38,982 times. Fast forward to 2019 with an even greater focus on launch angle and the numbers balloon to 6,776 home runs and an eye popping 42,823 strikeouts.

If we go a little bit farther back in history, before analytics were such a focus, we will see an even bigger discrepancy. Back in 2013 only 106 players struck out 100 times, while last season the number was 162. Going back to 2013 only 14 hitters connected for 30 home runs, while 57 players did it last season. The change can’t be only attributed to launch angle as a potential juiced ball, focus on exit velocity, and smaller ballparks are all also factors.

When looking at the top ten hitters in launch angle in 2019, you’ll see a lot of big boppers, but you will also find some real head scratchers. Brandon Belt ? Enrique Hernandez? This is further proof that you can’t utilize launch angle alone and expect to be able to predict the home run leaders. Missing from this chart are the top four hitters in home runs. That would be MLB home run champ Pete Alonso , Eugenio Suárez , American League leader Jorge Soler , and Cody Bellinger .

While launch angle is a fine metric to look at to help you predict who will hit a good number of home runs, it isn’t the end-all, be-all stat to review. Below are ten players who had a pretty solid number of home runs despite a less than ideal launch angle. Remember that Vlad Guerrero and Fernando Tatis did not have a full season’s worth of at-bats. Not included in the chart is Mets’ catcher Wilson Ramos who hit a reasonable 14 home runs with a launch angle of zero degrees.

Now that we have an idea of what launch angle means, let’s take a look at a few examples of players who have used the technique of lofting the ball more to increase their home run totals.

Dansby Swanson . A former number one overall pick, Swanson never really profiled as a big power hitter. In his first foray in the Majors, he continued that profile. From the time he came up later in 2016 through 2017, he hit just nine home runs in 617 at-bats, while having a launch angle of 9.0. Swanson raised his launch angle to 12.9 in 2018 along with his home run total to 14 in 478 at-bats. He made launch angle more of a focus in 2019 and raised it to 14.2 degrees and raised his home run total to 17 in 483 at-bats. An improved lineup around him certainly helped as well, but there is a direct correlation from Swanson’s increased launch angle and his home run totals. He has gone from a player who lived on the waiver wire to a later round flier that you can use if your league requires a middle infield position.

José Ramírez . Once a middling player who couldn’t get a full-time job, Ramirez has turned into a feared hitter. While he has increased other metrics like his hard hit percentage and his barrel rate, his launch angle has really changed. In 2015 he had just six home runs in 315 at-bats, and a pedestrian launch angle of 9.4 degrees. He increased his launch angle to 12.9 degrees in 2016, 14.8 degrees in 2017, and 18.8 degrees in 2018 when he hit a career high 39 home runs. He continued to focus on launch angle and had a career high of 19.8 degrees last year, but injuries sapped some of his power as he hit only 23 dingers in 482 at-bats. As we talked earlier, the increase in launch angle also coincided with a drop in batting average from .318 in 2107 to .255 last season. Again, launch angle isn’t completely to blame, but it likely is a factor. Considering he is healthy and likely will see another increase in launch angle, Ramirez should have a real chance at 30 home runs again.

Mike Moustakas . He had a decent career for a while, but Moustakas was an oft-injured player that never quite lived up to his potential. It could have been motivation of being in a contract year, but in 2017 he finally lived up to that potential. In 2015 his launch angle was 14.2 degrees and he hit 22 home runs. He missed most of 2016, but his breakout 2017 he hit 38 home runs with a launch angle of 18.3 degrees. He continued his torrid hitting with 28 home runs in 2018 with a launch angle of 19.6 degrees. A mid-season trade to Milwaukee certainly helped his cause as well. Finally, last year he hit 35 homers with a launch angle of 17.1 degrees. That isn’t as high as the previous two years, but again, a more hitter-friendly ball park also aided his power. He will call Cincinnati home in 2019 which is an even better hitting environment. If he can keep his launch angle consistently in the high teens again in 2020, Moustakas should be nearly a lock for 30 home runs assuming Major League Baseball doesn’t deaden the balls much compared to last season.

I hope you have a little better idea of how you can use launch angles in your fantasy baseball research, how it is a piece of the puzzle on predicting player stats, and some players who can hit home runs despite not excelling in launch angle. Please check out all of the other articles in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide to help you choose the best team to win your leagues.