We’re back at it in Vegas for another UFC Fight Night card. This one is actually decent. It’s light on dogs, as tends to be the case, but there are a couple with some intriguing upside. Weekly reminder: look for projectable grappling to score points. Also consider fading the first round knockout hypes.

Tonight's Fight between Gregor Gillespie and Brad Riddell has been cancelled.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Derek Brunson vs Kevin Holland7800/8400-Stackability: Safe+155/ -175+350/+100
I love the matchmaking here. Holland is an inconsistent but often electric fighter. Brunson is a strong wrestler with little depth to his game. Wrestling has been a huge problem for Holland in his career. He gets a chance to prove he’s made advances. Brunson can also continue his late career resurgence. I see Brunson offering some nice leverage with big grappling upside. That he’ll have to grind out five rounds without getting KO’d doesn’t give me an easy feeling, though. It’s stackable in cash since it’s a very close fight that’s unlikely to end early.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Montel Jackson9400Jesse StraderSomewhat-Safe-680-170
The UFC is scaling back with Montel here. He’s still only been a pro less than four years and almost three of those spent in the UFC. Progression isn’t linear. He should get back to his nasty ways here. It’s a big price to meet, however.
Gregor Gillespie9000Brad RiddellModerate-265+120
The long awaited return of Gregor the Gift is here. He didn’t pick a soft landing spot, either. Riddell's kickboxing thumps and he’s working on the wrestling. Gregor will pile up a huge amount of takedowns and control. Riddell doesn’t get finished easy so rinse and repeat takedowns should come. The risk is that Gregor’s shaky chin gets tested in the process.
Cheyanne Buys9100Montserrat ConejoSomewhat-Risky-340+255
Part of Buys deal is the packaging. She doesn’t mind playing up her looks. That doesn’t affect her fighting at all. We haven’t seen enough to know what she’ll look like at this level. The UFC is giving her an opponent that’s all toughness and no technique. Meaning, if you can’t handle business here you need seasoning.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Macy Chiasson8700Marion ReneauModerate-210+390
The Chiasson train got derailed a couple fights ago against Lena Lansberg in Sweden. I do wonder if the travel played a role in her flatness. She didn’t overwhelm in her last fight either, though. Nevertheless, we will always take shots on aggressive fighter that can grapple and finish fights early. Reneau as an opponent worries me some as she tends to slow opponents with general athleticism.
Tai Tuivasa8900Harry HunsuckerModerate-485#N/A
We get our second look at Bam Bam 2.0. He was in excellent shape for his last fight. Since Hunsucker’s a late replacement this is as low level an opponent as he’ll ever get again. Tai will be mega chalk. The risk comes in that he may not finish the fight in the first. If that doesn’t happen he may or may not have enough striking and KDs to back a second or third round finish but usually the pace at HW isn’t enough.
Adrian Yanez8800Gustavo LopezModerate-230+100
Yanez smooth striking is a problem for most of the lower fights in the division. Lopez is a tough dude but likely another stepping stone for Yanez. I am curious how Yanez looks should Lopez drag him into a brawl in the later rounds. Still a popular spot with decent safety.
Grant Dawson8600Leonardo SantosRisky-190+323
If Dawson manages to stay conscious into the second half of the fight his tenacity and size probably carry the day. He’s at risk for as long as Santos has energy in the tank, though.
Roman Dolidze8200Trevin GilesRisky-125+155
Take two fairly inconsistent fighters, add to cage, hope for results. Dolidze is strong and has power but not enough aggression. Giles is also pretty wiley. Anything can happen here.
JP Buys8300Bruno SilvaRisky-145+255
Buys gets a fairly favorable debut against the 0-3 Silva. While he may never go on a title run, Silva is not an easy out. Buys will need to look the part to win and score well enough to be a worthwhile DK play. There are other fighters in the range without those hurdles.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Leonardo Santos7600Grant DawsonSomewhat-Risky+165+330
Santos i very live for the first 10 minutes of this fight. After that I doubt he has the gas to pull the upset. His striking is dangerous and his BJJ is lethal. Dawson relies on aggression to cover up for some pretty big holes in his defensive game.
Song Kenan7700Max GriffinSomewhat-Risky+175+355
Song is basically the same fighter as Griffin. Generalist, decent athlete, not a finisher. There aren’t many backable dogs, so he may be worth a stab in a close fight.
Gustavo Lopez7400Adrian YanezSomewhat-Risky+190+370
Lopez could make the fight into a war. That’s easier said than done, though.
Trevin Giles8000Roman DolidzeRisky+105+325
We never know what we’re going to get from Giles. My spidy sense tells me Dolidze is do to crap the bed soon so this could be the spot.
Montserrat Conejo7100Cheyanne BuysRisky#N/A#N/A
Conejo is being brought in to give the look of competition but hopefully lose. That’s bit the prospect in the ass plenty of times. Any win here is big.
Jesse Strader6800Montel JacksonRisky+490+850
Strader throws some nice hands. We saw Brett Johns gut out a win by keeping Jackson on his back foot for 15 minutes. I doubt that happens here but the leverage will be huge.
Marion Reneau7500Macy ChiassonRisky+175+375
Reneau has always underperformed but she has some capabilities on the mat. Chaisson could get fluked subbed the same as anyone. This the women’s MMA, after all.
Bruno Silva7900JP BuysRisky+125+355
Silva’s back is against the wall after losing all three of his prior UFC fights. That’s a dangerous spot. He’s always had ability. If the chopping block gets him some extra motivation he could upset the debuting Buys.

 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Montel Jackson$9,400
Gregor Gillespie$9,000
Mid Tier
Adrian Yanez$8,800
Tai Tuivasa$8,900
Value TierLeonardo Santos$7,600

Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Montel Jackson$23
Gregor Gillespie$21
Mid Tier
Derek Brunson$16
Tai Tuivasa$18
Value TierLeonardo Santos

$14

 

Favorite Bets: Brunson +155, Gillespie -265

Favorite Props: Santos ITD +330

Live Dogs: Brunson, Santos, Kenan, Riddell, Giles, Silva

 

Stats & Picks: 

 

 

   
Derek BrunsonvsKevin Holland
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 21-7-0RecordRecord: 21-5-0
12 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (57%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%)
+155Vegas Odds-175
7/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Gregor GillespievsBrad Riddell
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 13-1-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
6 KO/TKO (46%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (56%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-265Vegas Odds+225
4/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Cheyanne BuysvsMontserrat Conejo
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 5-1-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
1 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%)
-340Vegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Adrian YanezvsGustavo Lopez
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 12-3-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
7 KO/TKO (58%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-230Vegas Odds+190
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Song KenanvsMax Griffin
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 16-5-0RecordRecord: 16-8-0
8 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (50%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
+175Vegas Odds-210
3/10Lineup Pool27/10
 0 
Tai TuivasavsHarry Hunsucker
$8,900DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 11-3-0RecordRecord: 7-3-0
 Knockouts3 KO/TKO (43%)
 Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (57%)
-485Vegas Odds+350
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Marion ReneauvsMacy Chiasson
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 9-6-1RecordRecord: 7-1-0
5 KO/TKO (56%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (33%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+175Vegas Odds-210
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Leonardo SantosvsGrant Dawson
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 18-4-1RecordRecord: 16-1-0
3 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts 
9 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs 
+165Vegas Odds-190
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Trevin GilesvsRoman Dolidze
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0
6 KO/TKO (46%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (50%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+105Vegas Odds-125
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Montel JacksonvsJesse Strader
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 5-1-0
5 KO/TKO (56%)Knockouts 
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs 
-680Vegas Odds+490
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Bruno SilvavsJP Buys
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 10-5-2 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-2-0
 Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
 Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)
+125Vegas Odds-145
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Julia AvilavsJulija Stoliarenko
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 9-5-1
4 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (89%)
-400Vegas Odds+325
6/10Lineup Pool3/10