We get the PPV hangover card this week. There’s still a few solid scraps here, though. Underdogs are thin so finding a winner in the sub $8K range will be huge. Let’s see if the immense MMA variance continues another week.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edwards is finally getting back in action after the pandemic derailed the British product’s plans. He’s a true contender if a somewhat boring generalist. For DK, we do like that Edwards has been mixing in more and more wrestling. Muhammad is constantly punching above his ability. His workmanlike effort through to the final bell is too much for many in the middle of the division. Edwards' talent and athleticism is likely too much for that to be a problem for him. Belal’s main path is actually a submission, imo. It’s a stackable fight on a card with not as many appealing dogs. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jonathan Martinez | 9300 | Davey Grant | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +175 |
| Martinez is turning a corner at the moment. This is another lower level opponent to keep that train building momentum. His kicks are savage. It’s not without risk as Grant goes YOLO at times. I expect that to be his undoing in this fight, however. Probably the top owned fighter. | |||||
| Charles Jourdain | 9100 | Marcelo Rojo | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | +125 |
| Do we dare put faith in Jourdain after recent stunts? I’m leaning yes. The Fili loss was a solid experience for a young fighter but the Culibao draw was concerning. Hopefully he worries a touch less about flying knees and just works his dynamic kick game. The KO is very live if he’s focused. | |||||
| Nasrat Haqparast | 9400 | Ashley Yoder | Moderate | -420 | +105 |
| Haqparast is a developing fighter with good boxing. He got exposed by Drew Dober but it was a single mistake and he’ll learn from it. The concern with Haq is that he doesn’t tend to finish as many fights as some and without any grappling that’s tough on DK. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 9400 | Ashley Yoder | Moderate | -380 | +445 |
| Maybe Angie Hill runs circles around Yoder. She’s a much better striker and far better athlete. Yoder tends to slow opponents and have grinding type fights. Another spot that will be tough to return value. I will say Hill is likely motivated to have a good showing and could pull out the stops for a finish. | |||||
| Rani Yahya | 9200 | Ray Rodriguez | Moderate | -280 | -130 |
| Yahya is a one dimensional submission specialist who's 36. He's pulled off the against odds sub in a bunch of UFC career wins, though. The cliff of retirement is quickly approaching, to boot. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Ige | 8600 | Gavin Tucker | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +380 |
| Ige is taking a step back in competition after mixing it up with the division’s elite. This should be a soft landing for him. Tucker is good pressing forward but hasn’t done much to fix his major defensive flaws. Ige can push the pace back if required and wrestling is still his base. | |||||
| Misha Cirkunov | 8300 | Ryan Spann | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +120 |
| This is a fun matchup. Cirkunov should have a hefty advantage everywhere in technique. Spann is a freak of an athlete with big power, though. We’ve seen Misha get the doors beat off at times. I still think Cirkunov will bail himself out with a submission victory barring a one shot stoppage. | |||||
| Matthew Semelsberger | 8400 | Jason Witt | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +235 |
| Semelsberger should be able to nullify Witt’s wrestling advantage and keep things standing. That’s bad news for Witt, who has a button on his chin. He’s very likely to drop and finish the vet. | |||||
| Manel Kape | 8700 | Matheus Nicolau | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +160 |
| Kape wasted no time getting back in the Octagon after a tough debut loss to Alexander Pantoja. He’s got some good striking and can wrestle but waited too long in that fight to start actually fighting. If he learned his lesson he should be a solid bet. | |||||
| Darren Stewart | 8900 | Eryk Anders | Risky | -175 | +315 |
| Stewart is another tough guy whose performance is hard to predict. He’s dangerous and does brawl a good bit. He also has deficiencies in the wrestling and BJJ departments. Anders hasn’t shown much in either department, hence the line on Stewart. Anders is tough to finish so it could cap the scoring here. | |||||
| JJ Aldrich | 8500 | Cortney Casey | Risky | #N/A | +655 |
| I'd feel better about JJ if she had a better wrestling base. Aldrich is looking to strike more than wrestle but she has some takedowns on her record. Casey is a choke artist but also finds fluke ways to win. It's a GPP only spot. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 7400 | Gloria de Paula | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +945 |
| Eryk Anders | 7300 | Darren Stewart | Risky | +155 | +445 |
| Anders tends to stand in front of his opponent and trade at a low rate. He’s strong and a decent grappler so fights often have to take place there. That leads to frustrating losses. If he does manage to come out of his shell Stewart has been known to fall apart in spots. | |||||
| Ryan Spann | 7900 | Misha Cirkunov | Risky | +110 | +160 |
| Spann has always been hard to handicap. Immense potential has been betrayed by avoidable mistakes in the cage. He’s the definition of a GPP play. Especially with Cirkunov’s history of getting clipped. | |||||
| Matheus Nicolau | 7500 | Manel Kape | Risky | +110 | +350 |
| The blueprint to beating Kape is pretty simple. You can be more active without much trouble and just have to avoid the big power in the second half of the fight. Maybe easier said than done but this a live dog on a card with few. | |||||
| Cortney Casey | 7700 | JJ Aldrich | Risky | +140 | +540 |
| Casey somehow figures out how to win fights she's losing. Betting against her isn't fun. | |||||
| Marcelo Rojo | 7100 | Charles Jourdain | Risky | +205 | +400 |
| Jourdain is sometimes his own worse enemy. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 6900 | Jonathan Martinez | Risky | +260 | +620 |
| Grant’s style adds a ton of variance to his fights. He could be the cards vet lesson in waiting. | |||||
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Ige -150, Edwards -260
Favorite Props: Semelsberger ITD +235
Live Dogs: Frey, Anders, Spann, Grant, Rojo, Nicolua
Stats & Picks:
| Leon Edwards | vs | Belal Muhammad |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -260 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Misha Cirkunov | vs | Ryan Spann |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dan Ige | vs | Gavin Tucker |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record | Record: 13-1-0 | |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jonathan Martinez | vs | Davey Grant |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (17%) | |
| Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Manel Kape | vs | Matheus Nicolau |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-1 |
| 9 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Eryk Anders | vs | Darren Stewart |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Angela Hill | vs | Ashley Yoder |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-9-0 | Record | Record: 8-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +315 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Charles Jourdain | vs | Marcelo Rojo |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-3-1 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Rani Yahya | vs | Ray Rodriguez |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 26-10-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (19%) |
| 20 SUBMISSIONS (77%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Nasrat Haqparast | vs | Rafa Garcia |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (9%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) |
| -420 | Vegas Odds | +335 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Cortney Casey | vs | JJ Aldrich |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 9-8-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gloria de Paula | vs | Jinh Yu Frey |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-6-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | vs | Jason Witt |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |