The UFC has piled the fights on to this Fight Night card. There were 15(!) scheduled. Looks like we’re losing one at weigh-ins and we’ll see how many make it to fight night. It should still be the most fights we’ve had in the DFS landscape in a while.
Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena has been cancelled after one of Klose's cornermen tested positive for COVID-19
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Risky | -460/ 365 | #N/A |
| As fun as this main event seems, there’s a good chance we get 20+ minutes of Blaydes holding Lewis down without much of an attempt to end things. Blaydes takes zero risks and Lewis knows how to coast until he’s in true danger. All that said, Blaydes could also rack up double digit takedowns and elbow Lewis’s head into a pulp in round one. There is always the 1 in 10 chance a Lewis bomb finds it’s way through at the close of a round. Not a stackable fight. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tom Aspinall | 9200 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | #N/A |
| There are no “safe” bets in the top range this week. Aspinall has all the tools to blast Arlovski out of the water. We’ve seen that in his opponents plenty of time before. He frustrates them into losing a close decision. There have been some exceptions, however. I’m willing to take the risk Aspinall is one with a good amount of folks hesitant for just this reason. | |||||
| Serghei Spivac | 9100 | Jared Vanderaa | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Spivac isn’t shy about being hellbent on grappling. He’s good at controlling sloppy heavyweight wrestlers. We also haven’t seen his chin tested since Walt Harris detonated his face. I worry some that the very large Vanderaa doesn’t make for an easy night of wrestling. | |||||
| Drakkar Klose | 9000 | Luis Pena | Moderate | -170 | #N/A |
| Klose, excuse the pun, tends to win quite close fights. Pena tends to lose them. That’s the most likely outcome of this bout, with a low DK score. Klose did show some extra aggression against Dariush. Maybe he’s taken a step up in that department. | |||||
| Ketlen Vieira | 9300 | Yana Kunitskaya | Moderate | -270 | #N/A |
| Vieira would need a finish to likely hit value at this price. Yana has been around long enough to know how to prevent that, at the least. Also, it’s WMMA. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chris Daukaus | 8600 | Aleksei Oleinik | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | #N/A |
| Take a heavyweight that has shown he’s light on his feet and a snappy striker. Pair him with an aging vet that has major striking holes. Record highlight finish. | |||||
| Danny Chavez | 8400 | Jared Gordon | Moderate | -150 | #N/A |
| Get ready for a clinic from Chavez here. He’s ferocious. Gordon gets beat up often, typically falling back on grappling and pace to keep him in fights. Neither is going to be there against Chavez, especially after Gordon has missed weight the second time in a row at featherweight. | |||||
| Casey O'Neill | 8500 | Shana Dobson | Moderate | -155 | #N/A |
| We don’t know a ton about the debutant. She seems in good shape and capable. Her being favored is more about Dobson’s low level. That can be risky to blindly back but the winner of this fight probably scores well. | |||||
| John Castaneda | 8300 | Eddie Wineland | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | #N/A |
| The line has edged in Castaneda’s favor a bit. Folks anticipate a brawl here and Castaneda is certainly good for that. He’s pretty durable and will bite down and throw back. That makes him somewhat live for a KO in any fight. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | 8100 | Julian Erosa | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | #N/A |
| Landwehr is a fun brawler. He is a wildman and this fight should be highly entertaining. Landwehr will have to protect his neck but Erosa is easy to land on. The line has also moved in his direction. | |||||
| Julian Erosa | 8100 | Julian Erosa | Risky | 100 | #N/A |
| Erosa may eat shots but he’s tough as nails and won’t go away easily. His real out is some pretty solid BJJ that he can catch Landwehr with if he gets sloppy. | |||||
| Nassourdine Imavov | 8000 | Phillip Hawes | Risky | 105 | #N/A |
| Imavov is a slick striker for his part. He showed decent in his debut but didn’t show finishing power. Maybe Jordan Williams is a different level of tough. If Imavov can avoid letting Hawes separate his head from his shoulders in the early going he will land often and efficiently. | |||||
| Phillip Hawes | 8200 | Nassourdine Imavov | Risky | -125 | #N/A |
| Hawes is going to pee in your cheerios if he fails to land the early KO in any fight. Imavov seems like a tough striker to track down. This is a huge boom or bust spot, with the odds on bust. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Eddie Wineland | 7900 | John Castaneda | Somewhat-Risky | 105 | #N/A |
| It’s a bit disrespectful to say Wineland should be an underdog to a fighter on a 1-3 skid when he himself only just lost to Sean O’Malley. His skills have certainly diminished but I don’t know that they’re in the losing to Castaneda territory. If he can avoid being knocked out he should win this fight. | |||||
| Chas Skelly | 7400 | Charles Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | 200 | #N/A |
| This is a great spot for a typical Chas Skelly overachievement. Emmers is a great athlete that tends to waste those gifts. Skelly is live for a submission, which would be gravy. | |||||
| Darrick Minner | 7400 | Charles Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | 160 | #N/A |
| TJ Laramie is the only person who doesn’t know that Minner’s best chance in any fight is an early guillotine. Rosa has the BJJ to probably survive that, though Rosa can be bullied. Minner probably wins the first and loses the second. It will come down to whether he’s figured out how to train for the late rounds. | |||||
| Jared Vanderaa | 7100 | Serghei Spivac | Risky | 165 | #N/A |
| Maybe I just haven’t upgraded my opinion of Spivac enough but this feels like an upset spot. If Vanderaa stifles his grappling at all Spivac’s in a good amount of trouble. Not a must play but a spot to take a few chances on. | |||||
| Yana Kunitskaya | 6900 | Ketlen Vieira | Risky | 230 | #N/A |
| There’s value on Yana in this spot. I don’t know that she pulls the upset but Vieira is wildly overrated here. It’s a spot to take a stab in the deepest pools. | |||||
| Aleksei Oleinik | 7600 | Chris Daukaus | Risky | 170 | #N/A |
| Oleinik needs to catch you in his bear trap or he’ll get pummeled. That makes him the ultimate GPP opponent. I don’t see it happening here but we haven’t seen Daukaus’s grappling tested much. | |||||
| Shana Dobson | 7700 | Casey O'Neill | Risky | 135 | #N/A |
| The card’s requisite veteran underdog that could teach a debutant a lesson. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Curtis Blaydes | $9,400 |
| Tom Aspinall | $9,200 | |
Mid Tier | Chris Daukaus | $8,600 |
| Danny Chavez | $8,400 | |
| Value Tier | Chas Skelly | $7,400 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Curtis Blaydes | $23 |
| Chris Daukaus | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Danny Chavez | $17 |
| Nate Landwehr | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Jared Vanderaa | $8 |
Favorite Bets: Daukaus -200, Chavez -150, Skelly +200
Favorite Props: Blaydes-Lewis fight does not start round 4 -150 or Blaydes ITD -160, Minner wins in round 1 +550
Live Dogs: Skelly, Minner, Imavov, Wineland, Kunitskaya, Zahabi, Arlovski, Lewis
Stats & Picks:
| Curtis Blaydes | vs | Derrick Lewis |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 14-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 24-7-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (79%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
| -460 | Vegas Odds | 365 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Ketlen Vieira | vs | Yana Kunitskaya |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC) |
| 2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -270 | Vegas Odds | 230 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Charles Rosa | vs | Darrick Minner |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 25-11-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (4%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 22 SUBMISSIONS (88%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Aleksei Oleinik | vs | Chris Daukaus |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 59-14-1 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (90%) |
| 46 SUBMISSIONS (78%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| 170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Phillip Hawes | vs | Nassourdine Imavov |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (78%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Andrei Arlovski | vs | Tom Aspinall |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 30-19-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| 210 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Jared Gordon | vs | Danny Chavez |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| 130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Eddie Wineland | vs | John Castaneda |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 24-14-1 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
| 105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Nate Landwehr | vs | Julian Erosa |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 24-9-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (42%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (46%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Serghei Spivac | vs | Jared Vanderaa |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | 165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Shana Dobson | vs | |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 4-4-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| 135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Chas Skelly | vs | Jamall Emmers |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (39%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| 200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |