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The most dominant fighter in the UFC, now that Khabib is retiring, is back in action as Kamara Usman takes on electric title challenger Gilbert Burns. That is going to be a great fight between two of the best Welterweights alive. The undercard is solid, as well, with plenty of possible finishes in the smaller APEX Center Octagon. Weekly reminder that we need grappling points on DK to score the most.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Safe | -275/ +235 | +260/+385 |
| This is probably the toughest matchup for Usman barring a Khabib move to 170. Burns has lethal submission skills but has also worked his striking into the elite territory to match his scary power. My guess is that Usman isn’t looking to wrestle to minimize his risk of getting caught in a choke. Burns doesn’t have elite wrestling so that makes this largely a striking affair. Usman has the technical advantage and Burns has the fight ending advantage. It should be stackable as it projects for a fairly busy 25 minutes with some possible grappling. Ultimately, I expect Usman to get his hand raised in a close fight. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 9300 | Anthony Hernandez | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -240 |
| This is a step down for Vieira. He’s taken some tough fights so he deserves a rub. Hernandez is borderline UFC material and will be outgunned on the feet, as well as the mat. This should end inside the distance. | |||||
| Ricky Simon | 9100 | Brian Kelleher | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | +375 |
| Ricky reminded us why he’s so valuable last time out. Wrestling, wrestling, and more wrestling. Kelleher is a decent grappler but may not be able to withstand the volume Simon brings. There is a fair amount of risk that Simon could get chin-checked by the heavy-handed Kelleher. Add the high ownership on Simon and it’s a moderate play. | |||||
| Belal Muhammad | 9200 | Dhiego Lima | Moderate | -410 | +270 |
| One of the most dependable fighters out there, Belal is, as always, a good bet to win a decision. That comes up short in paying the DK bills more often than not. | |||||
| Bobby Green | 8900 | Jim Miller | Risky | -255 | +385 |
| I don’t have much interest in Bobby Green here. The slickster manages to fight to his opponents level every time out and tends to lose close fights. Miller is a dangerous submission threat and can chuck the occasional bomb on the feet. If Green wins it’s probably a moderate scoring decision. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Miranda Maverick | 8500 | Gillian Robertson | Moderate | -135 | +300 |
| We’ve seen Robertson struggle with aggressive and athletic opponents. Maverick is both. She should be able to give Robertson her usual issues. I don’t completely love playing the young up and comer over a veteran with submission skills, however. Maverick is also borderline to need a finish at $8500. | |||||
| Philip Rowe | 8200 | Gabe Green | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | +210 |
| Rowe gets a chance to prove he’s ready for the UFC here. We don’t know who he is as much as we can feel somewhat confident Green will be there to get hit. That volume can still be valuable even with the new DK scoring. | |||||
| Julian Marquez | 8700 | Maki Pitolo | Risky | -165 | +160 |
| So much depends on where Marquez is after a long layoff. Did he make leaps forward with his time or get rusty on the shelf? He also gets a bit over-hyped off his headkick of a gassed Phil Hawes on Contender Series that was his break out moment. It could be a KO or bust spot. | |||||
| Mallory Martin | 8600 | Polyana Viana | Risky | -145 | +480 |
| Martin has yet to show much in the UFC. It’s possible she takes a step forward against some low level competition here. It’s a hard spot to trust her at the price. There’s variance here for those looking to capitalize on possible chaos. | |||||
| Gabe Green | 8000 | Philip Rowe | Risky | -140 | +385 |
| In his UFC debut, we saw that the journeyman can certainly take a punch or 175. Dude is tough, gotta give him that. Rowe is a could-be-prospect that needs to prove he can get by a vet like this. We’ve seen plenty of vet lessons dished out in the last year. | |||||
| Alexa Grasso | 8300 | Maycee Barber | Risky | -125 | +610 |
| This is smart match-making. Neither lady loves to grapple. Both are good strikers with momentum in the division. You get a fun fight with consolidated prospect inertia. Grasso has top-notch boxing and is tough as they come. She could very well hold the technical edge over Barber. We also have to worry about where Barber is at after her first loss that included a pretty bad knee tear and a good amount of punishment over 15 minutes. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Maycee Barber | 7900 | Alexa Grasso | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +280 |
| Barber has some big hurdles to clear after taking that first L in devastating fashion that included shredding her knee. Her path seemed on track to compete for the belt prior. She’s strong, heavy-handed, and very aggressive. There were signs that her game had holes prior to the loss, though. I’m more interested in Barber for DFS since she has the track record of finishes. | |||||
| Maki Pitolo | 7500 | Julian Marquez | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +260 |
| Here we go again spinning the Pitolo variance wheel. We managed to get on the right side of it in his last two losses. I came away from the most recent one with a raised assessment of him, however. He’s got the Hawiian toughness to stay in any fight and his aggression makes him live to score big in a win. I’m going to dip my toes into the Pitolo pool here. | |||||
| Ian Heinisch | 7400 | Kelvin Gastelum | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +570 |
| We’ve had a nice run fading Gastelum since his brutal loss to Izzy Adesanya. Can we add one more fade to that list? I say yes. Heinisch has the chin to likely weather a bomb. He’s an equal grappler, as well. That makes him a good bet to win a decision. He could also take advantage of Gastelum’s once great but possibly cracking chin. That’d end up as a good score. | |||||
| Jim Miller | 7300 | Bobby Green | Somewhat-Risky | +215 | +405 |
| It’s the Jim Miller lottery as usual. He’s an early sub threat or bust. Green is a solid grappler but we’ve seen Miller catch some very good fighters. He’s also aggressive enough on the feet to possibly win the first two rounds and snatching a close decision from Green, who ends up losing a lot of close fights. | |||||
| Brian Kelleher | 7100 | Ricky Simon | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +415 |
| Boom Kelleher has a knack for finding finishes. As much as I love Ricky Simon, you can’t deny he’s a risk to get KO’d. Kelleher knows how to land the heavy shot should he get the opportunity. He also has submission chops if Ricky gets sloppy while pushing the wrestling. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 7700 | Miranda Maverick | Risky | +115 | +355 |
| When Gillian wins it’s usually because of her wrestling and a solid score. She’s very solid with submissions, too. Maverick looks like an up-and-comer but this is a big step up. | |||||
| Polyana Viana | 7600 | Mallory Martin | Risky | +125 | +310 |
| For the deepest lineup pools you could sprinkle in Viana. She has some submission upside and her fights are always hard to predict. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Rodolfo Vieira | $9,300 |
| Kamaru Usman | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | ||
| Philip Rowe | $8,200 | |
| Value Tier | Maki Pitolo | $7,500 |
Favorite Bets: Heinisch +190, Pitolo +145,
Favorite Props: Miller ITD +405, Kelleher ITD +415
Live Dogs: Burns, Heinisch, Kelleher, Pitolo, Barber, Miller, Viana, Robertson
| Kamaru Usman | vs | Gilbert Burns |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Maycee Barber | vs | Alexa Grasso |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | vs | Ian Heinisch |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Maki Pitolo | vs | Julian Marquez |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Anthony Hernandez |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (86%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +315 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Belal Muhammad | vs | Dhiego Lima |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (24%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -410 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Polyana Viana | vs | Mallory Martin |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Andre Ewell | vs | Chris Gutierrez |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-2 |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ricky Simon | vs | Brian Kelleher |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 22-11-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
| -245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Gabe Green | vs | Philip Rowe |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |