The UFC is back in Las Vegas this week. Everyone made weight, so fingers crossed that we’re getting a 13 fight card here. There are plenty of exciting fights and uncertain outcomes. Another reminder on the DK scoring adjustments that favor grapplers.

Update (2/6 2:00pm ET) - Askar Askar is not medically cleared to fight so his bout with Cody Stamann is now off the card.

Main Event

Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov7600/8600-Stackability: Safe+170/ -200+290/+120
One of these guys is going to be the HW title challenger in waiting. Reem is trying one last time to touch UFC gold. Volkov is one of the division's best strikers. My biggest issue with Overeem is that he's deployed a shell up, rope-a-dope strategy against some of the division's sloppier fighters. That's not going to work here. Overeem does have a wrestling advantage but that's not his bread and butter. Ultimately I see Volkov out-working and hurting Overeem with volume. It's stackable for the variance on outcome and decent pace.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Timur Valiev9300Martin DaySomewhat-Safe-370+110
We'll find out where Valiev is here, after his disappointing debut loss. He gassed after emptying the chamber on an outmatched but durable Trevin Jones. He gets another very winnable fight against Day, who’s 0-3 in the UFC. Day’s mental lapses have shot his chances of success to bits. Valiev needs a finish at this price.
Cory Sandhagen9400Frankie EdgarSomewhat-Safe-400+185
The field is going to be heavy on Sandhagen. He’s the flashy striker getting a boring vet. His kickboxing is a significant advantage over the stiffer Edgar. Where Frankie could be trouble is in the wrestling department. Still, Sandhagen’s length keeps him safe from much of that. Without a huge score, Sandhagen’s price and low leverage become less appealing. Edgar tends to stifle opponents' scoring
Devonte Smith9200Justin JaynesModerate-300-160
It’s a steep price for someone who’s been out with injury as long as Smith has. He was on a nice run against low-level opponents but got caught against Khama Worthy. Jaynes is a similar swing for the fences type. Risk abounds here. The upside is an early KO, though. Jaynes has very poor defensive boxing.
Cody Stamann9200Justin JaynesModerate-485+250
Stamann is a very solid fighter and likely to win. The question on DK is how much can he score. FInishes tend to elude him but you have to consider how much he outclasses Askar here. We’ve seen that lead to finishes in the past for decision-type fighters.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Mike Rodriguez9000Danilo MarquesModerate-235-155
Slow Mike gets another layup in this one. Marques was signed to be a gimme fight and managed to beat Khadis Ibragimov. So the gift gets passed on to Rodriguez. This is another price that requires an early finish. That’s always a risky thing to bank on. Especially when it’s because of one side being bad.
Karol Rosa8700Joselyne EdwardsSomewhat-Risky-245+320
Rosa is going to be one of the most popular plays of the week. She’s a pace machine with grappling and striking. Edwards just fought and showed her style is purely pressing forward for offense. That leaves big liabilities for return fire. It’s a fun fight and should be a winnable spot for Rosa barring getting caught.
Molly McCann8500Lara ProcopioSomewhat-Risky-145+530
McCann is a good athlete and fights at a sloppy but fast pace. That’s probably enough to win here but it’s never going to be a foregone conclusion with McCann. She’s come close to losing to the worst the UFC has to offer. If she wins it’s a pretty big value, though.
Alexandre Pantoja8300Manel KapeSomewhat-Risky-115+165
Pantoja has lost some of his shine after a flat loss to Askar Askarov. He tends to need an opponent who plays into his firefight style. That is Kape but it comes with risk. Kape is a debutant but already an accomplished fighter. Another “if he wins” possible value.
Michael Johnson8800Clay GuidaSomewhat-Risky-225+195
I don’t like the price on Johnson at all. His best days are well in the rearview with a lot of mileage on his chin. He hasn't seemed quite as motivated, either. His boxing will out-class Guida by a mile. He may get caught on his back as Guida grits his way through the beating.
Diego Ferreira8200Beneil DariushRisky-110+270
This is a great fight. Both guys are elite in the striking, power, and grappling departments. They both have a ton of momentum coming in. Ferreira has a slight edge in the BJJ, a faster pace, and Dariush has chin issues. I lean his way.
Beneil Dariush8000Diego FerreiraRisky-110+250
Dariush has thrown caution to the wind to great results lately. He’s come out on the winning end of the brawls. They haven’t been without damage to himself, though. He’s a great fighter with a chin issue. That makes for wild variance.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Manel Kape7900Alexandre PantojaSomewhat-Risky-105+200
Kape gets an immediate test in his UFC debut. He’s a highly touted fighter from Rizin. His aggression will make this another great fight. He’s definitely live. Especially if Pantoja comes out looking lost like he did last time out.
Clay Guida7400Michael JohnsonSomewhat-Risky+185+765
Guida still has his calling card grit and durability. His striking has gotten a tad better but is still a problem in most fights. He’ll need to weather the first round and find some success in the second two. If he lands takedowns he could keep Johnson on the mat.
Jerome Rivera7500Ode OsbourneSomewhat-Risky+175+400
Rivera is wasting no time hoping back into the Octagon. He’s a live dog against a guy who relies on submissions. It’s a coin flip fight for GPP pools.
Lara Procopio7700Molly McCannRisky+125+500
Procopio should get to go along for the ride in a very back and forth typical Molly McCann fight. If she managed to pull out a win somehow she’d smash the scoring.
Joselyne Edwards7500Karol RosaRisky+205+490
Edwards is probably in over her head. She rushes in and is likely to get takedown. Her aggression adds variance, though. Plus Rosa’s opponents land tons of return fire.
Justin Jaynes7000Devonte SmithRisky+250+350
Jaynes swings big and hopes to knockout his opponent. Smith’s last loss was a huge upset KO, so it’s a live outcome.
Martin Day6900Timur ValievRisky+310+745
Day is wildly inconsistent but still somewhat talented. There’s a slight chance Valiev isn’t ready for the big show and drops a second upset.
Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Timur Valiev$9,300
Cory Sandhagen$9,400
Mid Tier
Karol Rosa$8,700
Alexander Volkov$8,600
Value TierManel Kape$7,900
  
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Alexander Volkov$21
Cory Sandhagen$23
Mid Tier
Timur Valiev$16
Diego Ferreira$15
Value TierClay Guida$11

Favorite Bets: Volkov -200, Ferreira -110

Favorite Props: Stamann ITD +200, Rosa ITD +320

Live Dogs: Overeem, Edgar, Kape, Guida, Jaynes, Procopio

 

Alistair OvereemvsAlexander Volkov
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 47-18-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 32-8-0
25 KO/TKO (53%)Knockouts21 KO/TKO (66%)
17 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
+170Vegas Odds-200
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Cory SandhagenvsFrankie Edgar
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 23-8-1
5 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (29%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-400Vegas Odds+325
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Michael JohnsonvsClay Guida
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 20-16-0RecordRecord: 35-17-0
8 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (20%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs
13 SUBMISSIONS (37%)
-225Vegas Odds+185
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Alexandre PantojavsManel Kape
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 22-5-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
8 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (60%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Cody StamannvsAskar Askar
$9,200DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 19-3-1RecordRecord: 11-1-0
6 KO/TKO (32%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
-485Vegas Odds+385
6/10Lineup Pool22/10
 0 
Diego FerreiravsBeneil Dariush
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 17-2-0RecordRecord: 19-4-1
3 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (26%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (42%)
-110Vegas Odds-110
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Mike RodriguezvsDanilo Marques
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 10-2-0
9 KO/TKO (82%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (40%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
-235Vegas Odds+195
7/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Devonte SmithvsJustin Jaynes
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 16-6-0
9 KO/TKO (90%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (50%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
-300Vegas Odds+250
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Karol RosavsJoselyne Edwards
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
4 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (50%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
-245Vegas Odds+205
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Molly McCannvsLara Procopio
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 10-3-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
4 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (17%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-145Vegas Odds+125
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
SeungWoo ChoivsYoussef Zalal
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 8-3-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
5 KO/TKO (63%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (20%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
#N/AVegas Odds-245
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Timur ValievvsMartin Day
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 16-2-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-5-0
5 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
-370Vegas Odds+310
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Ode OsbournevsJerome Rivera
$7,800DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 8-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 10-4-0
3 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (70%)
-210Vegas Odds+175
4/10Lineup Pool4/10