The UFC is back in Las Vegas this week. Everyone made weight, so fingers crossed that we’re getting a 13 fight card here. There are plenty of exciting fights and uncertain outcomes. Another reminder on the DK scoring adjustments that favor grapplers.
Update (2/6 2:00pm ET) - Askar Askar is not medically cleared to fight so his bout with Cody Stamann is now off the card.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov | 7600/8600 | - | Stackability: Safe | +170/ -200 | +290/+120 |
One of these guys is going to be the HW title challenger in waiting. Reem is trying one last time to touch UFC gold. Volkov is one of the division's best strikers. My biggest issue with Overeem is that he's deployed a shell up, rope-a-dope strategy against some of the division's sloppier fighters. That's not going to work here. Overeem does have a wrestling advantage but that's not his bread and butter. Ultimately I see Volkov out-working and hurting Overeem with volume. It's stackable for the variance on outcome and decent pace. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Timur Valiev | 9300 | Martin Day | Somewhat-Safe | -370 | +110 |
We'll find out where Valiev is here, after his disappointing debut loss. He gassed after emptying the chamber on an outmatched but durable Trevin Jones. He gets another very winnable fight against Day, who’s 0-3 in the UFC. Day’s mental lapses have shot his chances of success to bits. Valiev needs a finish at this price. | |||||
Cory Sandhagen | 9400 | Frankie Edgar | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | +185 |
The field is going to be heavy on Sandhagen. He’s the flashy striker getting a boring vet. His kickboxing is a significant advantage over the stiffer Edgar. Where Frankie could be trouble is in the wrestling department. Still, Sandhagen’s length keeps him safe from much of that. Without a huge score, Sandhagen’s price and low leverage become less appealing. Edgar tends to stifle opponents' scoring | |||||
Devonte Smith | 9200 | Justin Jaynes | Moderate | -300 | -160 |
It’s a steep price for someone who’s been out with injury as long as Smith has. He was on a nice run against low-level opponents but got caught against Khama Worthy. Jaynes is a similar swing for the fences type. Risk abounds here. The upside is an early KO, though. Jaynes has very poor defensive boxing. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mike Rodriguez | 9000 | Danilo Marques | Moderate | -235 | -155 |
Slow Mike gets another layup in this one. Marques was signed to be a gimme fight and managed to beat Khadis Ibragimov. So the gift gets passed on to Rodriguez. This is another price that requires an early finish. That’s always a risky thing to bank on. Especially when it’s because of one side being bad. | |||||
Karol Rosa | 8700 | Joselyne Edwards | Somewhat-Risky | -245 | +320 |
Rosa is going to be one of the most popular plays of the week. She’s a pace machine with grappling and striking. Edwards just fought and showed her style is purely pressing forward for offense. That leaves big liabilities for return fire. It’s a fun fight and should be a winnable spot for Rosa barring getting caught. | |||||
Molly McCann | 8500 | Lara Procopio | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +530 |
McCann is a good athlete and fights at a sloppy but fast pace. That’s probably enough to win here but it’s never going to be a foregone conclusion with McCann. She’s come close to losing to the worst the UFC has to offer. If she wins it’s a pretty big value, though. | |||||
Alexandre Pantoja | 8300 | Manel Kape | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +165 |
Pantoja has lost some of his shine after a flat loss to Askar Askarov. He tends to need an opponent who plays into his firefight style. That is Kape but it comes with risk. Kape is a debutant but already an accomplished fighter. Another “if he wins” possible value. | |||||
Michael Johnson | 8800 | Clay Guida | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | +195 |
I don’t like the price on Johnson at all. His best days are well in the rearview with a lot of mileage on his chin. He hasn't seemed quite as motivated, either. His boxing will out-class Guida by a mile. He may get caught on his back as Guida grits his way through the beating. | |||||
Diego Ferreira | 8200 | Beneil Dariush | Risky | -110 | +270 |
This is a great fight. Both guys are elite in the striking, power, and grappling departments. They both have a ton of momentum coming in. Ferreira has a slight edge in the BJJ, a faster pace, and Dariush has chin issues. I lean his way. | |||||
Beneil Dariush | 8000 | Diego Ferreira | Risky | -110 | +250 |
Dariush has thrown caution to the wind to great results lately. He’s come out on the winning end of the brawls. They haven’t been without damage to himself, though. He’s a great fighter with a chin issue. That makes for wild variance. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Manel Kape | 7900 | Alexandre Pantoja | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +200 |
Kape gets an immediate test in his UFC debut. He’s a highly touted fighter from Rizin. His aggression will make this another great fight. He’s definitely live. Especially if Pantoja comes out looking lost like he did last time out. | |||||
Clay Guida | 7400 | Michael Johnson | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +765 |
Guida still has his calling card grit and durability. His striking has gotten a tad better but is still a problem in most fights. He’ll need to weather the first round and find some success in the second two. If he lands takedowns he could keep Johnson on the mat. | |||||
Jerome Rivera | 7500 | Ode Osbourne | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +400 |
Rivera is wasting no time hoping back into the Octagon. He’s a live dog against a guy who relies on submissions. It’s a coin flip fight for GPP pools. | |||||
Lara Procopio | 7700 | Molly McCann | Risky | +125 | +500 |
Procopio should get to go along for the ride in a very back and forth typical Molly McCann fight. If she managed to pull out a win somehow she’d smash the scoring. | |||||
Joselyne Edwards | 7500 | Karol Rosa | Risky | +205 | +490 |
Edwards is probably in over her head. She rushes in and is likely to get takedown. Her aggression adds variance, though. Plus Rosa’s opponents land tons of return fire. | |||||
Justin Jaynes | 7000 | Devonte Smith | Risky | +250 | +350 |
Jaynes swings big and hopes to knockout his opponent. Smith’s last loss was a huge upset KO, so it’s a live outcome. | |||||
Martin Day | 6900 | Timur Valiev | Risky | +310 | +745 |
Day is wildly inconsistent but still somewhat talented. There’s a slight chance Valiev isn’t ready for the big show and drops a second upset. |
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Timur Valiev | $9,300 |
Cory Sandhagen | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Karol Rosa | $8,700 |
Alexander Volkov | $8,600 | |
Value Tier | Manel Kape | $7,900 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Alexander Volkov | $21 |
Cory Sandhagen | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Timur Valiev | $16 |
Diego Ferreira | $15 | |
Value Tier | Clay Guida | $11 |
Favorite Bets: Volkov -200, Ferreira -110
Favorite Props: Stamann ITD +200, Rosa ITD +320
Live Dogs: Overeem, Edgar, Kape, Guida, Jaynes, Procopio
Alistair Overeem | vs | Alexander Volkov |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 47-18-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 32-8-0 |
25 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 21 KO/TKO (66%) |
17 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Cory Sandhagen | vs | Frankie Edgar |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 23-8-1 |
5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (29%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Michael Johnson | vs | Clay Guida |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 20-16-0 | Record | Record: 35-17-0 |
8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (20%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (37%) |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Manel Kape |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 22-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
8 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (60%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
0 | ||
Diego Ferreira | vs | Beneil Dariush |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-1 |
3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (26%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Mike Rodriguez | vs | Danilo Marques |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
9 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Devonte Smith | vs | Justin Jaynes |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
9 KO/TKO (90%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Karol Rosa | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Molly McCann | vs | Lara Procopio |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
SeungWoo Choi | vs | Youssef Zalal |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | -245 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Timur Valiev | vs | Martin Day |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 16-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
5 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-370 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Ode Osbourne | vs | Jerome Rivera |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 8-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |