We get the final PPV event of the UFC year Saturday. It’s a good card. Good as can be with fighters testing positive for COVID-19 left and right. Keep a very close eye on things close to lock. We lost three fights last week hours beforehand. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno9000/7200-Stackability: Safe-330/ +270-175/+705
Both men are making a quick turn around here. Both made weight seemingly smoothly. This is going to be a fun fight. Moreno is super durable and will make an excellent test of Figgy's renowned power. Sharp folks have predicted Figgy will struggle against someone with good wrestling and volume, which Moreno excels at. It's stackable since I don't expect a quick end.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ciryl Gane9200Junior Dos SantosSomewhat-Safe-425-140
This is a major jump for Gane but one that is very winnable. Smart bettors have been fading JDS for some time now. He's lost the elite boxing that made him such a force. Now he just wings haymakers and eats punishment. Barring a flash KO, Gane has great output and will put JDS in trouble freuently.
Tecia Torres8900Sam HughesSomewhat-Safe-620+290
Torres tends to be all striking with no power. That doesn't really pay the bills at this price.
Chase Hooper9300Peter BarrettModerate-330-145
If you didn't learn how risky it was to back Hooper as a big favorite in his last loss here's another chance! That said, he seems to have a knack for finding a way to bail himself out with a submission.
Mackenzie Dern8700Virna JandirobaModerate-185+120
Speaking of bailing yourself out with a submission, Dern is an expert at that. The risk is that Vina is also a BJJ expert.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tony Ferguson8600Charles OliveiraModerate-165+145
We know one thing about a Tony Ferguson fight to be true: there will be violence. He pushes an incredible pace and fears no man. His volume is the key to his winning ways.
Daniel Pineda8300Cub SwansonSomewhat-Risky-160+125
Pineda showed his recent PFL success wasn't a fluke in a dominant win over Herbert Burns. He's a veteran and good everywhere. Swanson has been washed in my eyes for some time now. The sub is especially live here.
Billy Quarantillo8500Gavin TuckerSomewhat-Risky-160+240
Billy Q only has exciting fights. This should be no different. Tucker will likely find success in spots but he has liabilities of his own. It's a GPP fight to target for sure.
Rafael Fiziev8400Renato MoicanoSomewhat-Risky-150+210
There's no denying the strong kick game of Fiziev. Moicano's star has fallen some but I don't see enough respect for him in this line. Fiziev also hasn't shown the ability to find the finish yet.
Kevin Holland8200Jacare SouzaRisky+100+470
Holland is a risk in any fight with a decent opponent. He can also beat almost anyone on the right night. One thing I worry about is Jacare fighting a tight style again and draining scoring.
Jacare Souza8000Kevin HollandRisky-120+180
A tight decision or surprise submission are Jacare's path's. Neither is one I'm inclined to bank on here. He is an odds value and could be a popular cash play.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Charles Oliveira7600Tony FergusonSomewhat-Risky+145+240
Charlie Olives is on a tear, albeit against lessor competition. This will prove his metal. I see him hurting Tony and possibly submitting him. He'll need to show he won't quit in the horror show fight Tony drags you in to.
Virna Jandiroba7500Mackenzie DernSomewhat-Risky+160+106
I think Virna has a great shot to win this fight. Dern has weak wrestling and not the best strking. Virna has limited strking but uses it effectively. A decision win isn't a slam dunk at the price but could pay off if not many dogs win.
Gavin Tucker7700Billy QuarantilloSomewhat-Risky+140+500
Tucker is good on the offensive and in trouble defensively. Billy is kind of in the same boat. A back and forth fight makes the winner a must.
Renato Moicano7800Rafael FizievRisky+130+325
Moicano is a good technica kickboxer and dangerous BJJ threat. Fiziev is getting over-hyped after low level wins. Renato had been fighting the elite of the UFC.
Peter Barrett6900Chase HooperRisky+270+585
Barrett is brawler and will be in constant danger as his technical grappling probably isn't very close to Hooper's. Hooper tends to let fights slip away as he's getting punched in the face repeatedly. He's green and his chin already has issues.
Cub Swanson7900Daniel PinedaRisky+140+525
Cub is going to throw caution to the wind and try to brawl his way to wins at this point. That comes with volume if he can pull it off.
Junior Dos Santos7000Ciryl GaneRisky+340+550
JDS still does one thing well. Throw bombs. If Gane isn't ready for his aggression he could be in trouble.

 

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

 

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
FigueiredoMoreno$9,000    
MorenoFigueiredo$7,200    
GaneDos Santos$9,200    
MoicanoFiziev$7,800toOliveiraFerguson$7,600
HollandSouza$8,200toSouzaHolland$8,000
PinedaSwanson$8,300toFergusonOliveira$8,600
 Total Salary$49,700  Pivot Salary-

 

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

 

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
GaneDos Santos$9,200toDernJandiroba$8,700
MorenoFigueiredo$7,200toFigueiredoMoreno$9,000
TuckerQuarantillo$7,700toQuarantilloTucker$8,500
OliveiraFerguson$7,600toFergusonOliveira$8,600
PinedaSwanson$8,300    
BarrettHooper$6,900toHooperBarrett$9,300
 Total Salary$46,900  Pivot Salary-

 

*Pivots listed are for the fighter immediately to their left. Remember, the example lineups are meant to show strategies when making lineups. They are not meant to be plugged and played as a whole.

 

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Pineda -160, Moicano +130

Favorite Props: Oliveira ITD +240

Long Shot: Barrett ITD +585

Live Dogs: Holland, Oliveira, Moicano, Moreno, Jandiroba, Tucker, Barrett

 

Stats & Picks: 

 

Deiveson FigueiredovsBrandon Moreno
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 20-1-0RecordRecord: 18-5-1
9 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (17%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (40%)Subs
10 SUBMISSIONS (56%)
-330Vegas Odds+270
7/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tony FergusonvsCharles Oliveira
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 26-4-0Record
Record: 29-8-0 (1 NC)
12 KO/TKO (48%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (28%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%)Subs
19 SUBMISSIONS (66%)
-165Vegas Odds+145
4/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Mackenzie DernvsVirna Jandiroba
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 9-1-0RecordRecord: 16-1-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (67%)Subs
13 SUBMISSIONS (81%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Kevin HollandvsJacare Souza
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 20-5-0Record
Record: 26-8-0 (1 NC)
10 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (31%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs
14 SUBMISSIONS (54%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Junior Dos SantosvsCiryl Gane
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 21-8-0RecordRecord: 6-0-0
15 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (33%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+340Vegas Odds-425
3/10Lineup Pool27/10
 0 
Cub SwansonvsDaniel Pineda
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 26-11-0Record
Record: 27-13-0 (2 NC)
11 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (33%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs
18 SUBMISSIONS (67%)
+140Vegas Odds-160
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Renato MoicanovsRafael Fiziev
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 14-3-1RecordRecord: 8-1-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (63%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
+130Vegas Odds-150
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Gavin TuckervsBilly Quarantillo
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 12-1-0RecordRecord: 15-2-0
4 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (40%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+140Vegas Odds-160
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Tecia TorresvsSam Hughes
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 11-5-0RecordRecord: 5-1-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (20%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (60%)
-620Vegas Odds+460
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Chase HoopervsPeter Barrett
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 9-1-1RecordRecord: 11-4-0
3 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (64%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
-330Vegas Odds+270
4/10Lineup Pool4/10