We get the final PPV event of the UFC year Saturday. It’s a good card. Good as can be with fighters testing positive for COVID-19 left and right. Keep a very close eye on things close to lock. We lost three fights last week hours beforehand.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Safe | -330/ +270 | -175/+705 |
Both men are making a quick turn around here. Both made weight seemingly smoothly. This is going to be a fun fight. Moreno is super durable and will make an excellent test of Figgy's renowned power. Sharp folks have predicted Figgy will struggle against someone with good wrestling and volume, which Moreno excels at. It's stackable since I don't expect a quick end. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ciryl Gane | 9200 | Junior Dos Santos | Somewhat-Safe | -425 | -140 |
This is a major jump for Gane but one that is very winnable. Smart bettors have been fading JDS for some time now. He's lost the elite boxing that made him such a force. Now he just wings haymakers and eats punishment. Barring a flash KO, Gane has great output and will put JDS in trouble freuently. | |||||
Tecia Torres | 8900 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Safe | -620 | +290 |
Torres tends to be all striking with no power. That doesn't really pay the bills at this price. | |||||
Chase Hooper | 9300 | Peter Barrett | Moderate | -330 | -145 |
If you didn't learn how risky it was to back Hooper as a big favorite in his last loss here's another chance! That said, he seems to have a knack for finding a way to bail himself out with a submission. | |||||
Mackenzie Dern | 8700 | Virna Jandiroba | Moderate | -185 | +120 |
Speaking of bailing yourself out with a submission, Dern is an expert at that. The risk is that Vina is also a BJJ expert. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tony Ferguson | 8600 | Charles Oliveira | Moderate | -165 | +145 |
We know one thing about a Tony Ferguson fight to be true: there will be violence. He pushes an incredible pace and fears no man. His volume is the key to his winning ways. | |||||
Daniel Pineda | 8300 | Cub Swanson | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +125 |
Pineda showed his recent PFL success wasn't a fluke in a dominant win over Herbert Burns. He's a veteran and good everywhere. Swanson has been washed in my eyes for some time now. The sub is especially live here. | |||||
Billy Quarantillo | 8500 | Gavin Tucker | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +240 |
Billy Q only has exciting fights. This should be no different. Tucker will likely find success in spots but he has liabilities of his own. It's a GPP fight to target for sure. | |||||
Rafael Fiziev | 8400 | Renato Moicano | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +210 |
There's no denying the strong kick game of Fiziev. Moicano's star has fallen some but I don't see enough respect for him in this line. Fiziev also hasn't shown the ability to find the finish yet. | |||||
Kevin Holland | 8200 | Jacare Souza | Risky | +100 | +470 |
Holland is a risk in any fight with a decent opponent. He can also beat almost anyone on the right night. One thing I worry about is Jacare fighting a tight style again and draining scoring. | |||||
Jacare Souza | 8000 | Kevin Holland | Risky | -120 | +180 |
A tight decision or surprise submission are Jacare's path's. Neither is one I'm inclined to bank on here. He is an odds value and could be a popular cash play. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Charles Oliveira | 7600 | Tony Ferguson | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +240 |
Charlie Olives is on a tear, albeit against lessor competition. This will prove his metal. I see him hurting Tony and possibly submitting him. He'll need to show he won't quit in the horror show fight Tony drags you in to. | |||||
Virna Jandiroba | 7500 | Mackenzie Dern | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +106 |
I think Virna has a great shot to win this fight. Dern has weak wrestling and not the best strking. Virna has limited strking but uses it effectively. A decision win isn't a slam dunk at the price but could pay off if not many dogs win. | |||||
Gavin Tucker | 7700 | Billy Quarantillo | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +500 |
Tucker is good on the offensive and in trouble defensively. Billy is kind of in the same boat. A back and forth fight makes the winner a must. | |||||
Renato Moicano | 7800 | Rafael Fiziev | Risky | +130 | +325 |
Moicano is a good technica kickboxer and dangerous BJJ threat. Fiziev is getting over-hyped after low level wins. Renato had been fighting the elite of the UFC. | |||||
Peter Barrett | 6900 | Chase Hooper | Risky | +270 | +585 |
Barrett is brawler and will be in constant danger as his technical grappling probably isn't very close to Hooper's. Hooper tends to let fights slip away as he's getting punched in the face repeatedly. He's green and his chin already has issues. | |||||
Cub Swanson | 7900 | Daniel Pineda | Risky | +140 | +525 |
Cub is going to throw caution to the wind and try to brawl his way to wins at this point. That comes with volume if he can pull it off. | |||||
Junior Dos Santos | 7000 | Ciryl Gane | Risky | +340 | +550 |
JDS still does one thing well. Throw bombs. If Gane isn't ready for his aggression he could be in trouble. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Figueiredo | Moreno | $9,000 | ||||
Moreno | Figueiredo | $7,200 | ||||
Gane | Dos Santos | $9,200 | ||||
Moicano | Fiziev | $7,800 | to | Oliveira | Ferguson | $7,600 |
Holland | Souza | $8,200 | to | Souza | Holland | $8,000 |
Pineda | Swanson | $8,300 | to | Ferguson | Oliveira | $8,600 |
Total Salary | $49,700 | Pivot Salary | - |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Gane | Dos Santos | $9,200 | to | Dern | Jandiroba | $8,700 |
Moreno | Figueiredo | $7,200 | to | Figueiredo | Moreno | $9,000 |
Tucker | Quarantillo | $7,700 | to | Quarantillo | Tucker | $8,500 |
Oliveira | Ferguson | $7,600 | to | Ferguson | Oliveira | $8,600 |
Pineda | Swanson | $8,300 | ||||
Barrett | Hooper | $6,900 | to | Hooper | Barrett | $9,300 |
Total Salary | $46,900 | Pivot Salary | - |
*Pivots listed are for the fighter immediately to their left. Remember, the example lineups are meant to show strategies when making lineups. They are not meant to be plugged and played as a whole.
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Pineda -160, Moicano +130
Favorite Props: Oliveira ITD +240
Long Shot: Barrett ITD +585
Live Dogs: Holland, Oliveira, Moicano, Moreno, Jandiroba, Tucker, Barrett
Stats & Picks:
Deiveson Figueiredo | vs | Brandon Moreno |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 20-1-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 |
9 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tony Ferguson | vs | Charles Oliveira |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 26-4-0 | Record | Record: 29-8-0 (1 NC) |
12 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (28%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 19 SUBMISSIONS (66%) |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Mackenzie Dern | vs | Virna Jandiroba |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (81%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Jacare Souza |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 26-8-0 (1 NC) |
10 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (31%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 14 SUBMISSIONS (54%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Junior Dos Santos | vs | Ciryl Gane |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 21-8-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
15 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
+340 | Vegas Odds | -425 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
0 | ||
Cub Swanson | vs | Daniel Pineda |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 26-11-0 | Record | Record: 27-13-0 (2 NC) |
11 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (33%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 18 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Renato Moicano | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 14-3-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Gavin Tucker | vs | Billy Quarantillo |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (40%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Tecia Torres | vs | Sam Hughes |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
-620 | Vegas Odds | +460 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Chase Hooper | vs | Peter Barrett |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 9-1-1 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (64%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |