The UFC chugs along in 2020 with another Fight Night card. Things got pretty wild last week with SIX(!) dogs winning their fight. It made for a wild DFS landscape. I don’t see that happening here but during the pandemic oddsmakers have definitely found things more challenging. The Main Event is a solid cash stack and one you’re likely to face in any H2H.
The following fights have been CANCELLED for tonight's card:
Santos/De La Rosa
Flick/Durden
Evloev/Landwehr
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Safe | +120/ -140 | +215/+163 |
This is a solid Main Event, rescued twice over. Hermansson has competent strking and a very dangerous ground game. Vettori is well-rounded with a little less finishing ability. I wonder if Marvin doesn't come out looking to finish the Joker's night early the way Jared Cannonier did. I don't know that he can pull that off without getting into trouble, however. It's a close fight, with a close price. My read is that Vettori will have the slightly higher ownership so I'm interested in both sides but a bit more so on Hermansson's leverage. It's a solid cash stack. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ilia Topuria | 9000 | Damon Jackson | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +100 |
The main threat Topuria poses has been on the ground with an aggressive submission game. Jackson is well versed in BJJ himself so there's the chance Topuria looks to show off some striking power instead. He gassed in his short notice UFC debut so that is a slight risk on the night's most popular fighter. | |||||
Jordan Leavitt | 9200 | Matt Wiman | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | +100 |
This play is more about how washed Wiman is. In his two UFC fights since un-retiring he's been beaten pillar to post. That's not likely to change at this point. You just have to hope the raw but promising Leavitt holds up his end. | |||||
Movsar Evloev | 9300 | Nate Landwehr | Moderate | -630 | +195 |
Evloev is all about control in true Russian fashion. That's a solid recipe to stiffle Landwehr, who's a gamer but has liabilities everywhere. Evloev would need a fairly early submission to really break through on DK. | |||||
Taila Santos | 8900 | Montana De La Rosa | Moderate | -225 | +300 |
We've seen two versions of Santos in the UFC, one good one less so. If she continues her evolution she's a better athlete and striker than De La Rosa. She's fairly expensive, however. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jamahal Hill | 8400 | Ovince Saint Preux | Moderate | -170 | +170 |
Hill displayed the savage striking he possesses in dismantling Klidson Abreu. There's a reason no one wants to fight the dude. OSP is the UFCs go to in that situation. He's had mixed results in the role, getting starched by the likes of Dom Reyes but giving a vet lesson to Michal Oleksiejczuk. I think Hill is more like Reyes but he did slow down when Darko Stosic made him grapple. | |||||
Roman Dolidze | 8700 | John Allan | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | -110 |
Dolidze has paths to a finish both through his scary power and through a submission. The Georgian doesn't scream sub-threat but he's won that way before and Allen has lost 4/5 by sub. My main concern is the lack of aggression we saw from Dolidze in his debut with Khadis Ibragimov. | |||||
Gabriel Benitez | 8600 | Justin Jaynes | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +175 |
Jimmy Flick | 8500 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | -104 |
Gian Villante | 8800 | Jake Collier | Risky | -190 | +145 |
At least Villante doesn't look pregnant this time around. He's on the way out of the UFC and not that Collier is an up an comer but he's probably more relevant than Villante. Still, this is an odd couple of out of shape name traders. | |||||
Louis Smolka | 8300 | Jose Quinonez | Risky | -135 | +195 |
It's a simple one: Smolka is pretty much a sub or bust proposition. It's a big ask against the solid Quinonez but Smolka has always been a hard fighter to predict. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jose Quinonez | 7900 | Louis Smolka | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +505 |
The all around toughness of Quinonez is probably too much for Smolka. I think the only real out for Smolka is a submission win. Otherwise Quinonez should win a close decision. That makes him a cash play but a GPP liability. | |||||
Justin Jaynes | 7600 | Gabriel Benitez | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +320 |
The UFC loves Jaynes because he comes to throw down, no bones about it. Benitez is a dangerous striker but he's also been cracked his fair share over the years and is certainly not immune to getting KO'd. | |||||
Nate Landwehr | 6900 | Movsar Evloev | Somewhat-Risky | +520 | +850 |
The ruthless efficiency of Evloev is likely to smother Landwehr bell to bell. Nate the Train has made a career of beating Russians he's mismatched against, however. As good as Evloev has looked he hasn't been challenged in quite the ways a wildman like Landwehr is likely to. | |||||
Montana De La Rosa | 7300 | Taila Santos | Risky | +205 | +505 |
It's pretty clear at this point De La Rosa needs to get fights to the mat against anyone with competent striking. Santos will hold the advantage on the feet but was also controlled by Mara Borella in her debut loss. Shoudl De La Rosa have some grappling success she's live. | |||||
Cody Durden | 7700 | Jimmy Flick | Risky | +145 | +313 |
We've seen plenty of UFC debuts go wrong during the pandemic. Flick looks solid but we don't know that for sure. | |||||
Damon Jackson | 7200 | Ilia Topuria | Risky | +210 | +317 |
John Allan | 7500 | Roman Dolidze | Risky | +185 | +335 |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Vettori | Hermansson | $8,200 | ||||
Hermansson | Vettori | $8,000 | ||||
$9,300 | to | Topuria | Jackson | $9,000 | ||
Leavitt | Wiman | $9,200 | ||||
Quinonez | Smolka | $7,900 | to | Jaynes | Benitez | $7,600 |
Collier | Villante | $7,400 | to | $7,300 | ||
Total Salary | $50,000 | Pivot Salary | - |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Topuria | Jackson | $9,000 | to | Leavitt | Wiman | $9,200 |
Hermansson | Vettori | $8,000 | to | Vettori | Hermansson | $8,200 |
Hill | Saint Preux | $8,400 | to | Saint Preux | Hill | $7,800 |
Dolidze | Allan | $8,700 | to | $8,500 | ||
Jaynes | Benitez | $7,600 | to | Benitez | Jaynes | $8,600 |
$6,900 | to | $7,300 | ||||
Total Salary | $48,600 | Pivot Salary | - |
*Pivots listed are for the fighter immediately to their left. Remember, the example lineups are meant to show strategies when making lineups. They are not meant to be plugged and played as a whole.
Favorite Bets: Hill -170, Hermannson +120, Quinonez +115
Favorite Props: Touporia ITD +100
Long Shot: Jaynes ITD +320
Live Dogs: Hermansson, Quinonez, Jaynes, Landwehr, Collier
Stats & Picks:
Jack Hermansson | vs | Marvin Vettori |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-1 |
11 KO/TKO (52%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ovince Saint Preux | vs | Jamahal Hill |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 25-14-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 (2 NC) |
12 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
Gabriel Benitez | vs | Justin Jaynes |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 21-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (63%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Roman Dolidze | vs | John Allan |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC) |
8 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
0 | ||
Louis Smolka | vs | Jose Quinonez |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 16-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Matt Wiman | vs | Jordan Leavitt |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 16-9-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
+325 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Ilia Topuria | vs | Damon Jackson |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-1 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
14 SUBMISSIONS (78%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (78%) |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Gian Villante | vs | Jake Collier |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 17-12-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
10 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |