The UFC chugs along in 2020 with another Fight Night card. Things got pretty wild last week with SIX(!) dogs winning their fight. It made for a wild DFS landscape. I don’t see that happening here but during the pandemic oddsmakers have definitely found things more challenging. The Main Event is a solid cash stack and one you’re likely to face in any H2H.

The following fights have been CANCELLED for tonight's card:

Santos/De La Rosa

Flick/Durden

Evloev/Landwehr

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori8000/8200-Stackability: Safe+120/ -140+215/+163
This is a solid Main Event, rescued twice over. Hermansson has competent strking and a very dangerous ground game. Vettori is well-rounded with a little less finishing ability. I wonder if Marvin doesn't come out looking to finish the Joker's night early the way Jared Cannonier did. I don't know that he can pull that off without getting into trouble, however. It's a close fight, with a close price. My read is that Vettori will have the slightly higher ownership so I'm interested in both sides but a bit more so on Hermansson's leverage. It's a solid cash stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ilia Topuria9000Damon JacksonSomewhat-Safe-250+100
The main threat Topuria poses has been on the ground with an aggressive submission game. Jackson is well versed in BJJ himself so there's the chance Topuria looks to show off some striking power instead. He gassed in his short notice UFC debut so that is a slight risk on the night's most popular fighter.
Jordan Leavitt9200Matt WimanSomewhat-Safe-400+100
This play is more about how washed Wiman is. In his two UFC fights since un-retiring he's been beaten pillar to post. That's not likely to change at this point. You just have to hope the raw but promising Leavitt holds up his end.
Movsar Evloev9300Nate LandwehrModerate-630+195
Evloev is all about control in true Russian fashion. That's a solid recipe to stiffle Landwehr, who's a gamer but has liabilities everywhere. Evloev would need a fairly early submission to really break through on DK.
Taila Santos8900Montana De La RosaModerate-225+300
We've seen two versions of Santos in the UFC, one good one less so. If she continues her evolution she's a better athlete and striker than De La Rosa. She's fairly expensive, however.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jamahal Hill8400Ovince Saint PreuxModerate-170+170
Hill displayed the savage striking he possesses in dismantling Klidson Abreu. There's a reason no one wants to fight the dude. OSP is the UFCs go to in that situation. He's had mixed results in the role, getting starched by the likes of Dom Reyes but giving a vet lesson to Michal Oleksiejczuk. I think Hill is more like Reyes but he did slow down when Darko Stosic made him grapple.
Roman Dolidze8700John AllanSomewhat-Risky-200-110
Dolidze has paths to a finish both through his scary power and through a submission. The Georgian doesn't scream sub-threat but he's won that way before and Allen has lost 4/5 by sub. My main concern is the lack of aggression we saw from Dolidze in his debut with Khadis Ibragimov.
Gabriel Benitez8600Justin JaynesSomewhat-Risky-235+175
 
Jimmy Flick8500Cody DurdenSomewhat-Risky-165-104
 
Gian Villante8800Jake CollierRisky-190+145
At least Villante doesn't look pregnant this time around. He's on the way out of the UFC and not that Collier is an up an comer but he's probably more relevant than Villante. Still, this is an odd couple of out of shape name traders.
Louis Smolka8300Jose QuinonezRisky-135+195
It's a simple one: Smolka is pretty much a sub or bust proposition. It's a big ask against the solid Quinonez but Smolka has always been a hard fighter to predict.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jose Quinonez7900Louis SmolkaSomewhat-Risky+115+505
The all around toughness of Quinonez is probably too much for Smolka. I think the only real out for Smolka is a submission win. Otherwise Quinonez should win a close decision. That makes him a cash play but a GPP liability.
Justin Jaynes7600Gabriel BenitezSomewhat-Risky+195+320
The UFC loves Jaynes because he comes to throw down, no bones about it. Benitez is a dangerous striker but he's also been cracked his fair share over the years and is certainly not immune to getting KO'd.
Nate Landwehr6900Movsar EvloevSomewhat-Risky+520+850
The ruthless efficiency of Evloev is likely to smother Landwehr bell to bell. Nate the Train has made a career of beating Russians he's mismatched against, however. As good as Evloev has looked he hasn't been challenged in quite the ways a wildman like Landwehr is likely to.
Montana De La Rosa7300Taila SantosRisky+205+505
It's pretty clear at this point De La Rosa needs to get fights to the mat against anyone with competent striking. Santos will hold the advantage on the feet but was also controlled by Mara Borella in her debut loss. Shoudl De La Rosa have some grappling success she's live.
Cody Durden7700Jimmy FlickRisky+145+313
We've seen plenty of UFC debuts go wrong during the pandemic. Flick looks solid but we don't know that for sure.
Damon Jackson7200Ilia TopuriaRisky+210+317
 
John Allan7500Roman DolidzeRisky+185+335
 

 

Cash Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

 

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
VettoriHermansson$8,200    
HermanssonVettori$8,000    
EvloevLandwehr$9,300toTopuriaJackson$9,000
LeavittWiman$9,200    
QuinonezSmolka$7,900toJaynesBenitez$7,600
CollierVillante$7,400toDe La RosaSantos$7,300
 Total Salary$50,000  Pivot Salary-

GPP Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
TopuriaJackson$9,000toLeavittWiman$9,200
HermanssonVettori$8,000toVettoriHermansson$8,200
HillSaint Preux$8,400toSaint PreuxHill$7,800
DolidzeAllan$8,700toFlickDurden$8,500
JaynesBenitez$7,600toBenitezJaynes$8,600
LandwehrEvloev$6,900toDe La RosaSantos$7,300
 Total Salary$48,600  Pivot Salary-

*Pivots listed are for the fighter immediately to their left. Remember, the example lineups are meant to show strategies when making lineups. They are not meant to be plugged and played as a whole.

Favorite Bets: Hill -170, Hermannson +120, Quinonez +115

Favorite Props:  Touporia ITD +100 

Long Shot: Jaynes ITD +320

Live Dogs: Hermansson, Quinonez, Jaynes, Landwehr, Collier 

Stats & Picks: 

 

   
Jack HermanssonvsMarvin Vettori
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 21-5-0RecordRecord: 15-4-1
11 KO/TKO (52%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (13%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (29%)Subs
9 SUBMISSIONS (60%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ovince Saint PreuxvsJamahal Hill
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 25-14-0RecordRecord: 6-0-0 (2 NC)
12 KO/TKO (48%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (43%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+150Vegas Odds-170
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Gabriel BenitezvsJustin Jaynes
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 21-9-0RecordRecord: 16-5-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (63%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (73%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-235Vegas Odds+195
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Montana De La RosavsTaila Santos
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 11-6-0RecordRecord: 16-1-0
9 KO/TKO (69%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (57%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (43%)
+205Vegas Odds-225
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Roman DolidzevsJohn Allan
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 7-0-0Record
Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC)
8 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (23%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
-200Vegas Odds+185
6/10Lineup Pool23/10
 0 
Nate LandwehrvsMovsar Evloev
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 13-0-0
7 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (50%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (48%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
+520Vegas Odds-630
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Louis SmolkavsJose Quinonez
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 16-7-0RecordRecord: 9-4-0
7 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-135Vegas Odds+115
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Matt WimanvsJordan Leavitt
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 16-9-0RecordRecord: 7-0-0
4 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (71%)
+325Vegas Odds-400
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Jimmy FlickvsCody Durden
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 15-5-0RecordRecord: 11-2-1
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (87%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
-165Vegas Odds+145
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Ilia TopuriavsDamon Jackson
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 9-0-0Record
Record: 18-3-1 (1 NC)
3 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (11%)
14 SUBMISSIONS (78%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (78%)
-250Vegas Odds+210
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Gian VillantevsJake Collier
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 17-12-0RecordRecord: 11-5-0
10 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (12%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-190Vegas Odds+165
3/10Lineup Pool4/10