Paul Felder is stepping in to save this card’s main event on five days notice. That tells you how carefully (or carelessly) the UFC put the card together. As with most Fight Night cards, a well bet underdog can make your entire night. There are a few potential fights that can fill that need. DraftKings doesn’t care what the quality of fights is, they will fill contests, so get after it.
UPDATE: The fights between Louis Smolka/Jose Quinonez AND Julian Marquez/Saparbeg Safarov AND Eryk Anders/Antonio Arroyo have been CANCELLED!
Please scroll left-to-right across the playbook to see all of the data.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Paul Felder vs Rafael Dos Anjos | 7400/8800 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +165/ -190 | +520/+260 |
| It's really hard to size this fight up not knowing how prepared Paul Felder is to fight on short notice. He's in shape, as he was training for a triathelon, but I have no idea how ready that gets you for a cage fight. I think if Felder is close to his usual self he's got enough to take 3 of 5 rounds over RDA, assuming he has enough gas to go 25 minutes. RDA may be shot after losing 4 of his last 5 (and needing a comeback over Kevin Lee). I do think this goes the distance and could be a stack in cash on a dingy card. I'm going to have Felder in cash for sure. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 9100 | Khaos Williams | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | -180 |
| This fight is the co-main on explosion alone. Alhassan has left a trail of bodies in his wake and Khoas showed he has KO power in his debut win. Alhassan is priced up despite coming off a loss. That was his return after legal troubles. Now he's had some time to train and I expect him to get back to his show stopping ways. (It is mildy concerning Alahssan missed wieght again, by 1.5 lbs) | |||||
| Julian Marquez | 9400 | Saparbeg Safarov | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | -145 |
| ***Canceled*** | |||||
| Kay Hansen | 9200 | Cory McKenna | Moderate | -220 | +265 |
| Hansen is a good athlete with a dangerous submission game. Her debut win was a dog fight. She won it, which is good, but had lapses, which is bad. Her price is prohibitive to me here. I don't see the finish coming early enough, if at all. | |||||
| Don'Tale Mayes | 9000 | Roque Martinez | Moderate | -240 | +135 |
| The UFC needs heavyweights and thus we get this fight. Mayes has generally been able to handle low level competition and lost to UFC caliber fighters. I put Roque in the lower class. There's a good chance this is a plodding, messy HW bout. Mayes does have huge power if his opponent stands in one place long enough and you're feeling frisky. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tony Gravely | 8700 | Geraldo de Freitas | Moderate | -145 | +317 |
| Gravely is a better fighter than most give him credit for. He gave Brett Johns all he could handle in a wild loss. de Freitas is point fighter. This should be a very winnable fight for the superior athlete in Gravely. Volume wrestling would be his path to hitting value. | |||||
| Sean Strickland | 8300 | Brendan Allen | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +440 |
| Making up for lost time, Stricklan is getting into the cage for the second time in two weeks. He had an easy night against the durable but flawed Jack Marshman. Allen is the exact opposite. He's dangerous everywhere and constantly going for the finish. That can be his undoing, especially on the feet. If Strickland minds his Ps and Qs he could piece up the younger man. | |||||
| Kanako Murata | 8600 | Randa Markos | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | +360 |
| Murata is a world-class wrestler who'd striking is catching up. Markos is a tough out in the grappling department so this is a nice measuring stick to see just how far Murata's striking has come. Markos also tends to see the scorecards barring a sub from bottom. | |||||
| Alex Morono | 8900 | Rhys McKee | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +220 |
| I'm fairly high on Morono here. We aren't getting a price discount after his quick KO loss to Khoas Williams but I expect an ownership discount. This is too much too soon for McKee who has wholes all over the ship when the bullets start flying. Morono does have some risk of being dropped again but who doesn't. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 8500 | Antonio Arroyo | Risky | -125 | +290 |
| Anders is the same fighter he was four years ago. Good athlete, solid boxing, some wrestling, and nothing putting it together. His UFC wins are over the dreck of the division. Sadly, that may be enough against the equally flawed Arroyo. | |||||
| Louis Smolka | 8400 | Jose Quinonez | Risky | -150 | +200 |
| Smolka's main path to victory is via submission. That would likely be a solid score so people building multiple lineups should add a couple shares in. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brendan Allen | 7900 | Sean Strickland | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +240 |
| Allen is a GPP special: he either wins or goes out on his shield. The wins are usually violent and spectacular. Strickland is a savvy vet but having fought for the first time in two years just two weeks ago he may be more tiltable. Allen would be wise to focus on the grappling game and look to submit a possibly BJJ-rusty Strickland. With the odds flipping his way you'll likely face himi in cash games. The decision is whether to match or leverage that with his opponent. | |||||
| Cory McKenna | 7000 | Kay Hansen | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +720 |
| McKenna is a value at this price. Hansen is a nice prospect but her debut was far from a blowout. I also don't see it ending paticularly quickly so she'll provide points even in a loss. The upside with McKenna would be improvements occuring in training and getting a better version than expected. That's possible as she's at a good camp with great training partners. | |||||
| Khaos Williams | 7100 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +310 |
| Khaos lives up to his name. He will throw down with someone most are afraid to even spar. The leverage will be huge here as well. | |||||
| Jose Quinonez | 7800 | Louis Smolka | Risky | +130 | +450 |
| I like Quinionez to get a scrappy win here. He's more wlel-rounded than Smolka. He's longer and can strikes from range. He probably also bullies Smolka in the clinch a bit. As long as he doesn't get taken down he's got a slight edge. | |||||
| Antonio Arroyo | 7700 | Eryk Anders | Risky | +105 | +300 |
| My gut says Arroyo loses a gross kind of fight but he offers two pieces of upside. His BJJ is pretty decent and Anders is not the smartest fighter so a sub is in play. Arroyo also has good kick from range. He could win on that alone and Anders would just eat the kicks and be frustrated he's losing. | |||||
| Rhys McKee | 7300 | Alex Morono | Risky | +150 | +250 |
| McKee probably needs a knockout to win this fight. Doable since Morono's chin isn't ironclad but a long shot. | |||||
| Roque Martinez | 7200 | Don'Tale Mayes | Risky | +200 | +403 |
| Martinez has overacheived in every decent win he's had. Mayes would have to walk into something for him to be a value, though. | |||||
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Dos Anjos | Felder | $8,800 | ||||
| Felder | Dos Anjos | $7,400 | ||||
| Alhassan | Williams | $9,100 | to | |||
| Markos | Murata | $7,600 | ||||
| Allen | Strickland | $7,900 | to | Strickland | Allen | $8,300 |
| Gravely | de Freitas | $8,700 | to | |||
| Total Salary | $49,500 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Marquez | Safarov | $23 | to | Razak Alhassan | Williams | $22 |
| Felder | Dos Anjos | $18 | ||||
| McKenna | Hansen | $9 | ||||
| Markos | Murata | $14 | ||||
| Allen | Strickland | $17 | to | Strickland | Allen | $15 |
| Gravely | de Freitas | $18 | to | |||
| Total Salary | $99 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Razak Alhassan | Williams | $9,100 | ||||
| Allen | Strickland | $7,900 | to | Strickland | Allen | $8,300 |
| Felder | Dos Anjos | $7,400 | to | Dos Anjos | Felder | $8,800 |
| McKenna | Hansen | $7,000 | ||||
| Morono | McKee | $8,900 | to | McKee | Morono | $7,300 |
| Gravely | de Freitas | $8,700 | to | Murata | Markos | $8,600 |
| Total Salary | $49,000 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
| FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Razak Alhassan | Williams | $22 | ||||
| Allen | Strickland | tbd | to | Strickland | Allen | tbd |
| Felder | Dos Anjos | $18 | to | Dos Anjos | Felder | $21 |
| McKenna | Hansen | $9 | ||||
| Morono | McKee | $19 | to | McKee | Morono | $11 |
| Gravely | de Freitas | $18 | to | Murata | Markos | $18 |
| Total Salary | $86 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
Pivots listed are for the fighter immediately to their left. Remember, the example lineups are meant to show strategies when making lineups. They are not meant to be plugged and played, especially on a nine-fight card like tonight.
Favorite Bets: Morono -170, Quinonez +130
Favorite Props: McKenna via DEC +280
Long Shot: Gravely ITD +317
Live Dogs: Felder, Quinonez, McKenna, Williams, Markos, Yoder, McKee, Martinez
Stats & Picks:
| Paul Felder | vs | Rafael Dos Anjos |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 29-13-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (34%) |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | vs | Khaos Williams |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kay Hansen | vs | Cory McKenna |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Brendan Allen | vs | Sean Strickland |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ashley Yoder | vs | Miranda Granger |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 7-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alex Morono | vs | Rhys McKee |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 17-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-3-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Randa Markos | vs | Kanako Murata |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 10-10-1 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
| +170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Geraldo de Freitas | vs | Tony Gravely |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (42%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| vs | Roque Martinez | |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 7-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-2 |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |