The final event of this Fight Island stretch is a huge one. UFC 254 features the most compelling title fight of the year between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. The rest of the card is filled with exciting fights. Finally, we’re back to what a PPV should look like. It’s an easy week to build lineups with a mediocre top end. Keep in mind betting values trend towards DFS chalk plays. Good luck and remember lineups lock at 10:30 AM EST Saturday.

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje9200/7000-Stackability: Moderate-310/ +255-110/+420
This is the matchup hardcore MMA fans have been waiting on for years. The best wrestler in MMA is facing the most dangerous striker in MMA. The big question is can Gaethje stifle enough of Khabib's wrestling to get his striking offense off. It's obviously hard to say. My gut feeling is that having Trevor Wittman in his corner helps Gaethje get the fight changing moment he needs. We'll see if he can capitalize. It's almost a must stack in cash since almost everyone you face will do it.
Joel Alvarez9000Alexander YakovlevSomewhat-Risky-165+135
Our 9K range starts to fall apart here. Alvarez is a submission specialist without takedowns. He's managed to snake charm repeated opponents into guard subs. Yakovlev is a fairly cautious fighter with decent wrestling and BJJ. There's always the chance his continues his blessed submission streak.
Da-Un Jung9400Sam AlveySomewhat-Risky-330+105
Another line that makes no sense here. Jung almost lost to Khadis Ibragimov and one-punched Mike Rodriguez in his two UFC wins. We haven't learned much about him. The reason behind it is that Alvey is easy to out-volume in a decision. That doesn't pay on DK without huge volume and Alvey doesn't get into fast paced exchanges.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Magomed Ankalaev8900Ion CutelabaModerate-305-110
I'm sick of breaking this fight down. Ankaleav wins by KO again if it happens. There are rumors one of Cutelaba's cornermen tested positive for COVID. I'm guessing Dana White is testing him again until it comes back as a false positive.
Casey Kenney8700Nathaniel WoodSomewhat-Risky-170+340
Kenney is slightly overhyped coming off a good performance over Heili Alateng. Wood is a much stiffer bargain. Kenney has sound grappling and diverse striking. That's a winning formula in any fight. Gonna be a fun clash of prospects to see who's star stays on the rise.
Alexander Volkov8600Walt HarrisSomewhat-Risky-185+173
Volkov is the rare HW kickboxer. His reach is a problem for most. Harris isn't hard to out-technique. He's also easy enough to takedown. With pace and grappling Volkov would be a nice value in a win. Survivin Harris's power is no small feat, though.
Stefan Struve8300Tai TuivasaSomewhat-Risky-103+200
The only consistent thing about capping a Struve fight is that it doesn't go the way you expect. I'm trying to stay realistic about the danger he poses to my boy Tai. The best path to victory for Struve is a trip sweep and submission.
Jared Cannonier8200Robert WhittakerRisky-110+160
As a former 205er Cannonier is shredded at 185. His reach and power have been too much for everyone since dropping down. That combo was a problem for Whittake against Izzy Adesanya. The field seems enamoured with Cannonier so I'm gaining interest on the other side.
Robert Whittaker8000Jared CannonierRisky-110+347
Whittaker's happy to fight at the pace his opponent wants since he can beat most people everywhere. His best tool in this fight would be some well-timed grappling. He's live for a KO, as well, with the way Cannonier presses forward recklessly.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Shavkat Rakhmonov7700Alex OliveiraSomewhat-Risky-120+244
Shavkat is going to be a chalk play. His odds have steamed down and people will surely flock to the discount. He's a decent finisher and has both KO and sub abilities. Oliveira can be a tricky riddle to crack, though. That could lead to a modest score without a finish.
Tai Tuivasa7900Stefan StruveSomewhat-Risky-107+145
I've let my fanboying fly for Bam Bam this week. He's a great athlete, especially for heavyweight. After an 0-3 skid he left Australia for AKA this year and has been training with the likes of Daniel Cormier. He looks to be in great shape and is saying all the right things about taking fighting seriously. I see him KOing Struve in the fight but it's not without risk. The Skyscraper has a good trip game and is aggressive with submissions.
Nathaniel Wood7500Casey KenneySomewhat-Risky+150+405
It's not that I think Wood should be favored but the line is too wide. Wood is probably the more dangerous man and a busy fighter. He has a shaky chin and can run low on gas late in fights due to his style. I just like the potential leverage on a dangerous guy.
Walt Harris7600Alexander VolkovRisky+160+240
Harris is as explosive as a heavyweight comes. His speed and power would have made an excellent defensive tackle. Instead he's stalking prey in the UFC. Volkov is the deserving favorite but Harris is very, very dangerous.
Alexander Yakovlev7200Joel AlvarezRisky+145+310
The main thing Yakovlev likely needs to do to avoid a loss is not stick his neck into a choke. Easier said than done. Yakovlev is a veteran and not a risk taker.
Ion Cutelaba7300Magomed AnkalaevRisky+275+340
Cutelaba is his usual KO or bust self. That probably gets him KO'd again by Ankalaev here. Keep an eye on this one as there are rumors one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID.
Sam Alvey6800Da-Un JungRisky+270+414
Alvey doesn't do much outside of crush a counter hook from his Southpaw stance. That's won him a good amount of UFC fights, though. Jung is an unproven commodity at the moment.

Cash Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
NurmagomedovGaethje$9,200    
GaethjeNurmagomedov$7,000    
MaverickJojua$9,300    
AnkalaevCutelaba$8,900toKenneyWood$8,700
RakhmonovOliveira$7,700    
WoodKenney$7,500toAlveyJung$6,800
 Total Salary$49,600  Pivot Salary$50,000
FD Example CashPivotFD Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
NurmagomedovGaethje$24    
GaethjeNurmagomedov$18toAnkalaevCutelaba$19
RakhmonovOliveira$14    
MurphyShakirova$19toMaverickJojua$20
YakovlevAlvarez$12toWoodCasey$13
AlveyJung$9    
 Total Salary$96  Pivot Salary$100

GPP Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
AnkalaevCutelaba$8,900    
CannonierWhittaker$8,200toWhittakerCannonier$8,000
TuivasaStruve$7,900toStruveTuivasa$8,300
HarrisVolkov$7,600toVolkovHarris$8,600
WoodKenney$7,500toKenneyWood$8,700
HawesMalkoun$9,100toMaverickJojua$9,300
 Total Salary$49,200  Pivot Salary$50,000
FD Example GPPPivotFD Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
GaethjeNurmagomedov$18toNurmagomedovGaethje$24
MaverickJojua$20 HawesMalkoun$19
AnkalaevCutelaba$19 CannonierWhittaker$17
TuivasaStruve$15toStruveTuivasa$17
HarrisVolkov$15toVolkovHarris$17
WoodCasey$13toYakovlevAlvarez$12
 Total Salary$100  Pivot Salary$100

Favorite Bets: Hawes -240, Yakovlev +145, Tuivasa -107

Favorite Props: Harris ITD +240, Wood ITD +405

Long Shot: Gaethje ITD +420

Live Dogs: Gaethje, Harris, Wood, Alvey, Yokovlev, Shakirova

Stats & Picks: 

 

   
Khabib NurmagomedovvsJustin Gaethje
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 28-0-0RecordRecord: 22-2-0
8 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (86%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-310Vegas Odds+255
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Robert WhittakervsJared Cannonier
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 22-5-0RecordRecord: 13-4-0
9 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (69%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)
-110Vegas Odds-110
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Alexander VolkovvsWalt Harris
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 31-8-0RecordRecord: 13-8-0 (1 NC)
20 KO/TKO (65%)Knockouts13 KO/TKO (100%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jacob MalkounvsPhillip Hawes
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 4-0-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
2 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (75%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
+200Vegas Odds-240
1/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Lauren MurphyvsLiliya Shakirova
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 13-4-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (38%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-195Vegas Odds+180
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Magomed AnkalaevvsIon Cutelaba
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 13-1-0RecordRecord: 15-5-0 (1 NC)
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (80%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-305Vegas Odds+275
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Stefan StruvevsTai Tuivasa
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 33-12-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
8 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (89%)
18 SUBMISSIONS (62%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-103Vegas Odds-107
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Nathaniel WoodvsCasey Kenney
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 15-2-1
9 KO/TKO (53%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (13%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (29%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+150Vegas Odds-170
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Alex OliveiravsShavkat Rakhmonov
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 22-8-1 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 12-0-0
12 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (58%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (42%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Da-Un JungvsSam Alvey
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 33-14-0 (1 NC)
10 KO/TKO (77%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (58%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
-330Vegas Odds+270
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Liana JojuavsMiranda Maverick
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 8-3-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
1 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (75%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (71%)
+315Vegas Odds-380
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Joel AlvarezvsAlexander Yakovlev
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 17-2-0RecordRecord: 24-9-1
2 KO/TKO (12%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (36%)
15 SUBMISSIONS (88%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (36%)
-165Vegas Odds+145
4/10Lineup Pool4/10