The final event of this Fight Island stretch is a huge one. UFC 254 features the most compelling title fight of the year between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. The rest of the card is filled with exciting fights. Finally, we’re back to what a PPV should look like. It’s an easy week to build lineups with a mediocre top end. Keep in mind betting values trend towards DFS chalk plays. Good luck and remember lineups lock at 10:30 AM EST Saturday.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -310/ +255 | -110/+420 |
This is the matchup hardcore MMA fans have been waiting on for years. The best wrestler in MMA is facing the most dangerous striker in MMA. The big question is can Gaethje stifle enough of Khabib's wrestling to get his striking offense off. It's obviously hard to say. My gut feeling is that having Trevor Wittman in his corner helps Gaethje get the fight changing moment he needs. We'll see if he can capitalize. It's almost a must stack in cash since almost everyone you face will do it. | |||||
Joel Alvarez | 9000 | Alexander Yakovlev | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +135 |
Our 9K range starts to fall apart here. Alvarez is a submission specialist without takedowns. He's managed to snake charm repeated opponents into guard subs. Yakovlev is a fairly cautious fighter with decent wrestling and BJJ. There's always the chance his continues his blessed submission streak. | |||||
Da-Un Jung | 9400 | Sam Alvey | Somewhat-Risky | -330 | +105 |
Another line that makes no sense here. Jung almost lost to Khadis Ibragimov and one-punched Mike Rodriguez in his two UFC wins. We haven't learned much about him. The reason behind it is that Alvey is easy to out-volume in a decision. That doesn't pay on DK without huge volume and Alvey doesn't get into fast paced exchanges. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Magomed Ankalaev | 8900 | Ion Cutelaba | Moderate | -305 | -110 |
I'm sick of breaking this fight down. Ankaleav wins by KO again if it happens. There are rumors one of Cutelaba's cornermen tested positive for COVID. I'm guessing Dana White is testing him again until it comes back as a false positive. | |||||
Casey Kenney | 8700 | Nathaniel Wood | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +340 |
Kenney is slightly overhyped coming off a good performance over Heili Alateng. Wood is a much stiffer bargain. Kenney has sound grappling and diverse striking. That's a winning formula in any fight. Gonna be a fun clash of prospects to see who's star stays on the rise. | |||||
Alexander Volkov | 8600 | Walt Harris | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +173 |
Volkov is the rare HW kickboxer. His reach is a problem for most. Harris isn't hard to out-technique. He's also easy enough to takedown. With pace and grappling Volkov would be a nice value in a win. Survivin Harris's power is no small feat, though. | |||||
Stefan Struve | 8300 | Tai Tuivasa | Somewhat-Risky | -103 | +200 |
The only consistent thing about capping a Struve fight is that it doesn't go the way you expect. I'm trying to stay realistic about the danger he poses to my boy Tai. The best path to victory for Struve is a trip sweep and submission. | |||||
Jared Cannonier | 8200 | Robert Whittaker | Risky | -110 | +160 |
As a former 205er Cannonier is shredded at 185. His reach and power have been too much for everyone since dropping down. That combo was a problem for Whittake against Izzy Adesanya. The field seems enamoured with Cannonier so I'm gaining interest on the other side. | |||||
Robert Whittaker | 8000 | Jared Cannonier | Risky | -110 | +347 |
Whittaker's happy to fight at the pace his opponent wants since he can beat most people everywhere. His best tool in this fight would be some well-timed grappling. He's live for a KO, as well, with the way Cannonier presses forward recklessly. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Shavkat Rakhmonov | 7700 | Alex Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +244 |
Shavkat is going to be a chalk play. His odds have steamed down and people will surely flock to the discount. He's a decent finisher and has both KO and sub abilities. Oliveira can be a tricky riddle to crack, though. That could lead to a modest score without a finish. | |||||
Tai Tuivasa | 7900 | Stefan Struve | Somewhat-Risky | -107 | +145 |
I've let my fanboying fly for Bam Bam this week. He's a great athlete, especially for heavyweight. After an 0-3 skid he left Australia for AKA this year and has been training with the likes of Daniel Cormier. He looks to be in great shape and is saying all the right things about taking fighting seriously. I see him KOing Struve in the fight but it's not without risk. The Skyscraper has a good trip game and is aggressive with submissions. | |||||
Nathaniel Wood | 7500 | Casey Kenney | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +405 |
It's not that I think Wood should be favored but the line is too wide. Wood is probably the more dangerous man and a busy fighter. He has a shaky chin and can run low on gas late in fights due to his style. I just like the potential leverage on a dangerous guy. | |||||
Walt Harris | 7600 | Alexander Volkov | Risky | +160 | +240 |
Harris is as explosive as a heavyweight comes. His speed and power would have made an excellent defensive tackle. Instead he's stalking prey in the UFC. Volkov is the deserving favorite but Harris is very, very dangerous. | |||||
Alexander Yakovlev | 7200 | Joel Alvarez | Risky | +145 | +310 |
The main thing Yakovlev likely needs to do to avoid a loss is not stick his neck into a choke. Easier said than done. Yakovlev is a veteran and not a risk taker. | |||||
Ion Cutelaba | 7300 | Magomed Ankalaev | Risky | +275 | +340 |
Cutelaba is his usual KO or bust self. That probably gets him KO'd again by Ankalaev here. Keep an eye on this one as there are rumors one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID. | |||||
Sam Alvey | 6800 | Da-Un Jung | Risky | +270 | +414 |
Alvey doesn't do much outside of crush a counter hook from his Southpaw stance. That's won him a good amount of UFC fights, though. Jung is an unproven commodity at the moment. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Nurmagomedov | Gaethje | $9,200 | ||||
Gaethje | Nurmagomedov | $7,000 | ||||
Maverick | Jojua | $9,300 | ||||
Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $8,900 | to | Kenney | Wood | $8,700 |
Rakhmonov | Oliveira | $7,700 | ||||
Wood | Kenney | $7,500 | to | Alvey | Jung | $6,800 |
Total Salary | $49,600 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Nurmagomedov | Gaethje | $24 | ||||
Gaethje | Nurmagomedov | $18 | to | Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $19 |
Rakhmonov | Oliveira | $14 | ||||
Murphy | Shakirova | $19 | to | Maverick | Jojua | $20 |
Yakovlev | Alvarez | $12 | to | Wood | Casey | $13 |
Alvey | Jung | $9 | ||||
Total Salary | $96 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $8,900 | ||||
Cannonier | Whittaker | $8,200 | to | Whittaker | Cannonier | $8,000 |
Tuivasa | Struve | $7,900 | to | Struve | Tuivasa | $8,300 |
Harris | Volkov | $7,600 | to | Volkov | Harris | $8,600 |
Wood | Kenney | $7,500 | to | Kenney | Wood | $8,700 |
Hawes | Malkoun | $9,100 | to | Maverick | Jojua | $9,300 |
Total Salary | $49,200 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Gaethje | Nurmagomedov | $18 | to | Nurmagomedov | Gaethje | $24 |
Maverick | Jojua | $20 | Hawes | Malkoun | $19 | |
Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $19 | Cannonier | Whittaker | $17 | |
Tuivasa | Struve | $15 | to | Struve | Tuivasa | $17 |
Harris | Volkov | $15 | to | Volkov | Harris | $17 |
Wood | Casey | $13 | to | Yakovlev | Alvarez | $12 |
Total Salary | $100 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Favorite Bets: Hawes -240, Yakovlev +145, Tuivasa -107
Favorite Props: Harris ITD +240, Wood ITD +405
Long Shot: Gaethje ITD +420
Live Dogs: Gaethje, Harris, Wood, Alvey, Yokovlev, Shakirova
Stats & Picks:
Khabib Nurmagomedov | vs | Justin Gaethje |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 28-0-0 | Record | Record: 22-2-0 |
8 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (86%) |
10 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-310 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Robert Whittaker | vs | Jared Cannonier |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 22-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
9 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Alexander Volkov | vs | Walt Harris |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 31-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 (1 NC) |
20 KO/TKO (65%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (100%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jacob Malkoun | vs | Phillip Hawes |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (75%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Lauren Murphy | vs | Liliya Shakirova |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-195 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 (1 NC) |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (80%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-305 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Stefan Struve | vs | Tai Tuivasa |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 33-12-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
8 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
18 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-103 | Vegas Odds | -107 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Nathaniel Wood | vs | Casey Kenney |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-1 |
9 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Alex Oliveira | vs | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 22-8-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
12 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Da-Un Jung | vs | Sam Alvey |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 33-14-0 (1 NC) |
10 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (58%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Liana Jojua | vs | Miranda Maverick |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
+315 | Vegas Odds | -380 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Joel Alvarez | vs | Alexander Yakovlev |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 24-9-1 |
2 KO/TKO (12%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (36%) |
15 SUBMISSIONS (88%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |