This is the best non-PPV card we’ve gotten in a while. It’s full of dynamic fights and gutsy scraps. Plenty of fighters are debuting but they’re almost all quality prospects. The added variance should make for a fun DFS landscape with few sure things.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marlon Moraes vs Cory Sandhagen | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +120/ -140 | +185/+165 |
What a figting headliner on a card full of bangers. Moraes is kill or be killed. Sandhagen pushes a faster pace than almost anyone. The winner is probably next in line for a title shot after Aljo. That pace makes the winner very valuable: Sandhagen will either have a boatload of stats in a win or Moraes will take him out early with a flashy finish. That makes it a moderate cash stack. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tom Aspinall | 9400 | Alan Baudot | Safe | -590 | -240 |
Aspinall seems like a legit HW prospect. He's yet to be tested but the only test here is likely to be can you avoid some unnecessary spinning junk. Aspinall has plenty of power and good wrestling. He should be able to win it where he wants. | |||||
Tagir Ulanbekov | 9300 | Bruno Silva | Somewhat-Safe | -440 | +160 |
The latest can't miss Russian prospect. Dagestani to be precise, as he's part of Khabib's team. That means chain wrestling his opponent into a pulp. Silva has good BJJ, which is always a risk for wrestlers, but you'd expect Tagir to be prepared for it. | |||||
Rodrigo Nascimento | 9200 | Chris Daukaus | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | -150 |
I was on the fence about Nasc until seeing he weighed in nearly 40 lbs heavier than his opponent. That extra beef should be a difference maker in the grappling, allowing him to get his BJJ going. | |||||
Tom Breese | 9100 | KB Bhullar | Moderate | -250 | +175 |
It's all between the ears with Breese. He has well-documented anxiety issues. They don't come with less bite than Bhullar in the UFC so if he can't fight an effective gameplan here he's done. I think we see Breese turn a corner with those struggles. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Edson Barboza | 8800 | Makwan Amirkhani | Moderate | -275 | +115 |
Barboza doesn't come without risk. Amirkhani is very good at what he does best: chokes. Barboza is very strong for the weight, has plus takedown defense, and is no BJJ fish. If Makwan doesn't catch an early kick or hit a surprise level change Barboza is going to chew him up with some nasty striking. | |||||
Tony Kelley | 8700 | Ali AlQaisi | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | +215 |
Kelley is the better striker and more dangerous man. AlQaisi is the better wrestler and more sound mixed-martial artist. That makes Kelley a GPP play for me with some KO upside. | |||||
Dricus Du Plessis | 8400 | Markus Perez | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +165 |
Du Plessis is a tough pill to swallow as a late notice debutant. He's got legit wins in other promotions on big stages, though. He's the better fighter here in my opinion and it's not the close. Perez is a wildcard, however. He dangerous in a way that could be trouble for the orthodox Du Plessis. Still, give me the newcomer who looks to be all business this weekend. | |||||
Impa Kasanganay | 8900 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Risky | -220 | +305 |
Impa's biggest risk are 1) Buckley swing haymakers every shot and 2) As a stout southpaw he may avoid wrestling him. This should be a fun fight but has less DK potential at this price for Impa. | |||||
Omar Morales | 8300 | Giga Chikadze | Risky | -150 | +310 |
It will be interesting to see how Morales fares coming down a weightclass. That can affect gas tank and durability. His biggest edge is his ability to land an opportunistc takedown. Otherwise this will be a kick-boxing war. | |||||
Ben Rothwell | 8500 | Marcin Tybura | Risky | -155 | +145 |
Rothwell is super incosistent. He's slowed as he's aged and doesn't fight with much urgency. That said, he does pack a punch and Tybura has a very suspect chin. A KO in the third is a bust at this price. In the first or second we'd have something. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ilia Topuria | 7600 | Youssef Zalal | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +205 |
Topuria is making his UFC debut here. Zalal is a tricky fighter to do that against as a late replacement himself. What makes Topuria interesting is that he should nullify the grappling edge Zalal has enjoyed in his first three UFC fights. From there Topuria is the better finisher both with the hands and submissions. It's a close fight, though. | |||||
Giga Chikadze | 7900 | Omar Morales | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +405 |
Giga finally gets to fight the opponent he was booked for. Not bad considering he's 3-0. He's a rangy kickboxer with dangerous kicks. He's been working on his takedown defense and gas tank. Both will be tested here. | |||||
Stephanie Egger | 7200 | Tracy Cortez | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +390 |
Egger has some upset potential as a long submission artist facing a wrestler. We don't have many opponents to measure Egger against, though she does have a 2015 win over a raw Mara Borella. She's also the bigger woman. | |||||
KB Bhullar | 7100 | Tom Breese | Risky | +230 | +370 |
A bet on Bhullar is a bet that Breese freezes up yet again and panics into a mistake that costs him. | |||||
Chris Daukaus | 7000 | Rodrigo Nascimento | Risky | +220 | +255 |
Daukaus is likely to be the better striker. That might make Nascimento want to take him down that much quicker. He'll need to show he can't be put on the mat easily to make this into a fight. If he does the momentum would swing his way in a hurry. Heavywieghts be heavyweights. | |||||
Joaquin Buckley | 7300 | Impa Kasanganay | Risky | +200 | +335 |
Buckley's lack of technique leaves him swinging at air a bit too often with his looping hooks. If one connects it's trouble. We did see Maki Pitolo land on Impa in their fight. If you're taking a puncher's chance it's nice for that puncher to hit as hard as Buckley. | |||||
Markus Perez | 7800 | Dricus Du Plessis | Risky | +155 | +260 |
Perez's mind games frustrate me to no end. Most UFC caliber fighters have had no trouble with him. Du Plessis strikes me as someone who won't either. If Perez can goad him into a war that could be a different story, though. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Sandhagen | Moraes | $8,200 | ||||
Moraes | Sandhagen | $8,000 | ||||
Aspinall | Baudot | $9,400 | to | Ulanbekov | Silva | $9,300 |
Du Plessis | Perez | $8,400 | ||||
Morales | Chikadze | $8,300 | to | Chikadze | Morales | $7,900 |
Topuria | Zalal | $7,600 | ||||
Total Salary | $49,900 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Moraes | Sandhagen | $8,000 | to | Sandhagen | Moraes | $8,200 |
Nascimento | Daukaus | $9,200 | to | Aspinall | Baudot | $9,400 |
Barboza | Amirkhani | $8,800 | to | Breese | Bhullar | $9,100 |
Kelley | AlQaisi | $8,700 | to | Rothwell | Tybura | $8,500 |
Topuria | Zalal | $7,600 | to | Amirkhani | Barboza | $7,400 |
Egger | Cortez | $7,200 | to | Daukaus | Nascimento | $7,000 |
Total Salary | $49,500 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
Favorite Bets: Topuria +140, Chikadze +140, Breese -250
Favorite Props: Barboza ITD +115, Kelley ITD +215
Long Shot: Egger ITD +390
Live Dogs: Moraes, Amrkhani, Topuria, Chikadze, Egger, Bhullar, Daukaus, Buckley
Stats & Picks:
Marlon Moraes | vs | Cory Sandhagen | |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 | |
Record: 23-6-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 | |
10 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) | |
6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 | |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 | |
Edson Barboza | vs | Makwan Amirkhani | |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 | |
Record: 20-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 | |
12 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (6%) | |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +250 | |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 | |
Ben Rothwell | vs | Marcin Tybura | |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 | |
Record: 38-12-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 | |
28 KO/TKO (74%) | Knockouts | ||
6 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | ||
-155 | Vegas Odds | +145 | |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 | |
Markus Perez | vs | Dricus Du Plessis | |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 | |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 | |
3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) | |
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -165 | |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 | |
Tom Aspinall | vs | Alan Baudot | |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 | |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 | |
7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (88%) | |
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | |
-590 | Vegas Odds | +495 | |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 | |
Youssef Zalal | vs | Ilia Topuria | |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 | |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 | |
2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) | |
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (88%) | |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +140 | |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 | |
Tom Breese | vs | KB Bhullar | |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 | |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 | |
4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) | |
6 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +230 | |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 | |
Chris Daukaus | vs | Rodrigo Nascimento | |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 | |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 | |
8 KO/TKO (89%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) | |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | |
+220 | Vegas Odds | -240 | |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 | |
Impa Kasanganay | vs | Joaquin Buckley | |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 | |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 | |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) | |
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +200 | |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 | |
Ali AlQaisi | vs | Tony Kelley | |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 | |
Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 | |
1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) | |
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -225 | |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 | |
Giga Chikadze | vs | Omar Morales | |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 | |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 | |
Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) | ||
Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | ||
+140 | Vegas Odds | -150 | |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 | |
Tracy Cortez | vs | Stephanie Egger | |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 | |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 | |
1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) | |
1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +165 | |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 | |
Bruno Silva | vs | Tagir Ulanbekov | |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 | |
Record: 10-4-2 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-1-0 | |
3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (10%) | |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | |
+390 | Vegas Odds | -440 | |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |