This is the best non-PPV card we’ve gotten in a while. It’s full of dynamic fights and gutsy scraps. Plenty of fighters are debuting but they’re almost all quality prospects. The added variance should make for a fun DFS landscape with few sure things. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Marlon Moraes vs Cory Sandhagen8000/8200-Stackability: Moderate+120/ -140+185/+165
What a figting headliner on a card full of bangers. Moraes is kill or be killed. Sandhagen pushes a faster pace than almost anyone. The winner is probably next in line for a title shot after Aljo. That pace makes the winner very valuable: Sandhagen will either have a boatload of stats in a win or Moraes will take him out early with a flashy finish. That makes it a moderate cash stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tom Aspinall9400Alan BaudotSafe-590-240
Aspinall seems like a legit HW prospect. He's yet to be tested but the only test here is likely to be can you avoid some unnecessary spinning junk. Aspinall has plenty of power and good wrestling. He should be able to win it where he wants.
Tagir Ulanbekov9300Bruno SilvaSomewhat-Safe-440+160
The latest can't miss Russian prospect. Dagestani to be precise, as he's part of Khabib's team. That means chain wrestling his opponent into a pulp. Silva has good BJJ, which is always a risk for wrestlers, but you'd expect Tagir to be prepared for it.
Rodrigo Nascimento9200Chris DaukausSomewhat-Safe-240-150
I was on the fence about Nasc until seeing he weighed in nearly 40 lbs heavier than his opponent. That extra beef should be a difference maker in the grappling, allowing him to get his BJJ going.
Tom Breese9100KB BhullarModerate-250+175
It's all between the ears with Breese. He has well-documented anxiety issues. They don't come with less bite than Bhullar in the UFC so if he can't fight an effective gameplan here he's done. I think we see Breese turn a corner with those struggles.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Edson Barboza8800Makwan AmirkhaniModerate-275+115
Barboza doesn't come without risk. Amirkhani is very good at what he does best: chokes. Barboza is very strong for the weight, has plus takedown defense, and is no BJJ fish. If Makwan doesn't catch an early kick or hit a surprise level change Barboza is going to chew him up with some nasty striking.
Tony Kelley8700Ali AlQaisiSomewhat-Risky-225+215
Kelley is the better striker and more dangerous man. AlQaisi is the better wrestler and more sound mixed-martial artist. That makes Kelley a GPP play for me with some KO upside.
Dricus Du Plessis8400Markus PerezSomewhat-Risky-165+165
Du Plessis is a tough pill to swallow as a late notice debutant. He's got legit wins in other promotions on big stages, though. He's the better fighter here in my opinion and it's not the close. Perez is a wildcard, however. He dangerous in a way that could be trouble for the orthodox Du Plessis. Still, give me the newcomer who looks to be all business this weekend.
Impa Kasanganay8900Joaquin BuckleySomewhat-Risky-220+305
Impa's biggest risk are 1) Buckley swing haymakers every shot and 2) As a stout southpaw he may avoid wrestling him. This should be a fun fight but has less DK potential at this price for Impa.
Omar Morales8300Giga ChikadzeRisky-150+310
It will be interesting to see how Morales fares coming down a weightclass. That can affect gas tank and durability. His biggest edge is his ability to land an opportunistc takedown. Otherwise this will be a kick-boxing war.
Ben Rothwell8500Marcin TyburaRisky-155+145
Rothwell is super incosistent. He's slowed as he's aged and doesn't fight with much urgency. That said, he does pack a punch and Tybura has a very suspect chin. A KO in the third is a bust at this price. In the first or second we'd have something.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ilia Topuria7600Youssef ZalalSomewhat-Risky+140+205
Topuria is making his UFC debut here. Zalal is a tricky fighter to do that against as a late replacement himself. What makes Topuria interesting is that he should nullify the grappling edge Zalal has enjoyed in his first three UFC fights. From there Topuria is the better finisher both with the hands and submissions. It's a close fight, though.
Giga Chikadze7900Omar MoralesSomewhat-Risky+140+405
Giga finally gets to fight the opponent he was booked for. Not bad considering he's 3-0. He's a rangy kickboxer with dangerous kicks. He's been working on his takedown defense and gas tank. Both will be tested here.
Stephanie Egger7200Tracy CortezSomewhat-Risky+165+390
Egger has some upset potential as a long submission artist facing a wrestler. We don't have many opponents to measure Egger against, though she does have a 2015 win over a raw Mara Borella. She's also the bigger woman.
KB Bhullar7100Tom BreeseRisky+230+370
A bet on Bhullar is a bet that Breese freezes up yet again and panics into a mistake that costs him.
Chris Daukaus7000Rodrigo NascimentoRisky+220+255
Daukaus is likely to be the better striker. That might make Nascimento want to take him down that much quicker. He'll need to show he can't be put on the mat easily to make this into a fight. If he does the momentum would swing his way in a hurry. Heavywieghts be heavyweights.
Joaquin Buckley7300Impa KasanganayRisky+200+335
Buckley's lack of technique leaves him swinging at air a bit too often with his looping hooks. If one connects it's trouble. We did see Maki Pitolo land on Impa in their fight. If you're taking a puncher's chance it's nice for that puncher to hit as hard as Buckley.
Markus Perez7800Dricus Du PlessisRisky+155+260
Perez's mind games frustrate me to no end. Most UFC caliber fighters have had no trouble with him. Du Plessis strikes me as someone who won't either. If Perez can goad him into a war that could be a different story, though.

 

Cash Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

 

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
SandhagenMoraes$8,200    
MoraesSandhagen$8,000    
AspinallBaudot$9,400toUlanbekovSilva$9,300
Du PlessisPerez$8,400    
MoralesChikadze$8,300toChikadzeMorales$7,900
TopuriaZalal$7,600    
 Total Salary$49,900  Pivot Salary$50,000

GPP Plays: 
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

 

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
MoraesSandhagen$8,000toSandhagenMoraes$8,200
NascimentoDaukaus$9,200toAspinallBaudot$9,400
BarbozaAmirkhani$8,800toBreeseBhullar$9,100
KelleyAlQaisi$8,700toRothwellTybura$8,500
TopuriaZalal$7,600toAmirkhaniBarboza$7,400
EggerCortez$7,200toDaukausNascimento$7,000
 Total Salary$49,500  Pivot Salary$50,000

 

Favorite Bets: Topuria +140, Chikadze +140, Breese -250

Favorite Props: Barboza ITD +115, Kelley ITD +215

Long Shot: Egger ITD +390

Live Dogs: Moraes, Amrkhani, Topuria, Chikadze, Egger, Bhullar, Daukaus, Buckley

Stats & Picks: 

 

    
Marlon MoraesvsCory Sandhagen 
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200 
Record: 23-6-1RecordRecord: 12-2-0 
10 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (33%) 
6 SUBMISSIONS (26%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
 
+120Vegas Odds-140 
5/10Lineup Pool5/10 
    
Edson BarbozavsMakwan Amirkhani 
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400 
Record: 20-9-0RecordRecord: 16-4-0 
12 KO/TKO (60%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (6%) 
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%)
 
-275Vegas Odds+250 
7/10Lineup Pool3/10 
    
Ben RothwellvsMarcin Tybura 
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700 
Record: 38-12-0RecordRecord: 19-6-0 
28 KO/TKO (74%)Knockouts  
6 SUBMISSIONS (16%)Subs  
-155Vegas Odds+145 
5/10Lineup Pool3/10 
    
Markus PerezvsDricus Du Plessis 
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400 
Record: 12-3-0RecordRecord: 14-2-0 
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (36%) 
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
9 SUBMISSIONS (64%)
 
+155Vegas Odds-165 
3/10Lineup Pool6/10 
    
Tom AspinallvsAlan Baudot 
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800 
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0 
7 KO/TKO (88%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (88%) 
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) 
-590Vegas Odds+495 
8/10Lineup Pool1/10 
    
Youssef ZalalvsIlia Topuria 
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600 
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0 
2 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (13%) 
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (88%)
 
-160Vegas Odds+140 
3/10Lineup Pool6/10 
    
Tom BreesevsKB Bhullar 
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100 
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0 
4 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (50%) 
6 SUBMISSIONS (55%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
 
-250Vegas Odds+230 
6/10Lineup Pool3/10 
    
Chris DaukausvsRodrigo Nascimento 
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200 
Record: 9-3-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0 
8 KO/TKO (89%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%) 
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (75%)
 
+220Vegas Odds-240 
4/10Lineup Pool5/10 
    
Impa KasanganayvsJoaquin Buckley 
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300 
Record: 8-0-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0 
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (70%) 
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) 
-220Vegas Odds+200 
5/10Lineup Pool3/10 
    
Ali AlQaisivsTony Kelley 
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700 
Record: 8-4-0RecordRecord: 6-2-0 
1 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (20%) 
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (60%)
 
+185Vegas Odds-225 
4/10Lineup Pool5/10 
    
Giga ChikadzevsOmar Morales 
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300 
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 10-0-0 
 Knockouts2 KO/TKO (20%) 
 Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
 
+140Vegas Odds-150 
4/10Lineup Pool4/10 
    
Tracy CortezvsStephanie Egger 
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200 
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 5-1-0 
1 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (40%) 
1 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
 
-175Vegas Odds+165 
4/10Lineup Pool4/10 
    
Bruno SilvavsTagir Ulanbekov 
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300 
Record: 10-4-2 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 12-1-0 
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (10%) 
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
 
+390Vegas Odds-440 
2/10Lineup Pool6/10