The good times on Fight Island roll on. This is a lackluster card but offers some clear leverage plays that could make for huge spots. Definitely don’t be afraid to leave a good amount of salary on the table.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana8400/7800-Stackability: Moderate-120/ +110+465/+347
This is a pretty big step up for Aldana. Holm may be 38 but she's in phenominal shape and training as hard as ever. She's just better than Aldana everywhere. I don't think it ends ITD so it's a safe stack from that standpoint but Holm can fight slow.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Charles Jourdain9300Josh CulibaoSafe-450-160
Jourdain is probably the biggest potential score on the slate. He's aggresive and dynamic in the striking department. Culibao is his first free pass in the UFC. He was due for an easier fight.
Kyler Phillips9200Cameron ElseSomewhat-Safe-460-175
Phillips has the pace to post another big score. He's well-rounded and a plus athlete. He does bear a little risk in the style he fights and Else is average but capable of a finish. At $100 less than Jourdain he's also likely bears a bit higher ownership.
Casey Kenney9000Heili AlatengSomewhat-Safe-380-125
Kenney is over-priced in my opinion. He's a good grappler and solid boxer but better than the sum of his parts. That makes him live for a letdown as a big favorite. Not a fade but someone I'm reducing in my pool.
Dusko Todorovic9100Dequan TownsendModerate-340+145
The risk on Dusko is that he's not in a fight that is going to pay off the price tag. Townsend is a strong cat and throws back with enough power to keep opponents honest. Possible boring decision here for the debutant.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Yorgan De Castro8900Carlos FelipeModerate-220-105
De Castro should come out and lean into his signature leg kick. Most heaveyweights don't defend them well. After a few land Felipe will likely have to crash forward or get chopped down. That's when De Castro can score a KO.
Germaine de Randamie8600Julianna PenaSomewhat-Risky-145+305
The Iron Lady is making her yearly appearance. There's some concern that wrestling is her flaw and Pena's strength but I'm not overly concerned. GDR's kickboxing tends to neutrilize opponents not named Nunes before they can get going.
Court McGee8300Carlos ConditSomewhat-Risky-120+500
Court is pretty well traveled at this point. He still uses his go to's of pace and grinding grappling to win when he can. If Condit doesn't drop him early he likely volumes his way to a sad decision.
Jordan Williams8700Nassourdine ImavovSomewhat-Risky-125+166
Williams is a bit of a wildcard since he has diabetes and can't cut weight. Imavov isn't huge so there may not be size discrepancy. The $8700 price is off, though. Williams is a MME consideration only for me as a low owned pivot.
Jessin Ayari8200Luigi VendraminiSomewhat-Risky-120+290
This fight features two men who haven't fought since 2018. Ayari is the bigger man, hence the slight favorite.
Luigi Vendramini8000Jessin AyariRisky+100+255
Vendramini can finish on occasion. He'd likely be a value with any win ITD.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Nassourdine Imavov7500Jordan WilliamsSomewhat-Risky+115+220
The opening line was off, hence the DK pricing. Imavov is the better prospect if less proven man. He will be very chalky so tread with care.
Carlos Condit7900Court McGeeSomewhat-Risky+110+300
Condit likely needs a first round finish and knows it. That makes for an interesting option in DFS when the fighter manages to pull it off.
Heili Alateng7200Casey KenneySomewhat-Risky+290+600
This line is a bit disrespectful to Alateng. Kenney should be the favorite but this is wide. I'm intrigued by the levereage available here.
Julianna Pena7600Germaine de RandamieRisky+135+340
Pena is in real danger on the feet. She'll need to close distance and wrestle bell to bell. She has the strenght. We'll see about the skill.
Cameron Else7000Kyler PhillipsRisky+410+544
Else is a dangerous late replacement. He's racked up early finishes and Phillips fights at a fast pace. That varaince could end up with Else victorious.
Dequan Townsend7100Dusko TodorovicRisky+310+454
Townsend is your puncher's chance of the week with a UFC newcomer on tap.
Josh Culibao6900Charles JourdainRisky+360+750
This is purely a leverage play. Jourdain can get takedown and held down. It's a longshot, though.

 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)Cash Plays: 

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
HolmAldana$8,400    
AldanaHolm$7,800    
JourdainCulibao$9,300toKenneyAlateng$9,000
McGeeCondit$8,300    
de RandamiePena$8,600toDe CastroFelipe$8,900
ImavovWilliams$7,500    
 Total Salary$49,900  Pivot Salary$50,000

 

FD Example CashPivotFD Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
JourdainCulibao$22toHolmAldana$20
De CastroFelipe$18    
ImavovWilliams$15    
McGeeCondit$17    
Penade Randamie$12    
SuphisaraFrey$15    
 Total Salary$99  Pivot Salary$100

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
PhillipsElse$9,200toJourdainCulibao$9,300
De CastroFelipe$8,900toKenneyAlateng$9,000
AyariVendramini$8,200toVendraminiAyari$8,000
ConditMcGee$7,900toMcGeeCondit$8,300
de RandamiePena$8,600toWilliamsImavov$8,700
ElsePhillips$7,000toAlatengKenney$7,200
 Total Salary$49,800  Pivot Salary$50,000

 

FD Example GPPPivotFD Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
PhillipsElse$21toJourdainCulibao$22
de RandamiePena$18    
KenneyAlateng$19    
AyariVendramini$16    
ConditMcGee$16    
ElsePhillips$10toAlatengKenney$12
 Total Salary$100  Pivot Salary$100


Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Holm -120, De Castro -220, Alateng +290

Favorite Props: de Randamie ITD +305

Long Shot: Else ITD +544

Live Dogs: Imavov, Else, Alateng, Condit, Pena

 

Stats & Picks: 

   
Holly HolmvsIrene Aldana
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 13-5-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
 Knockouts 
8 KO/TKO (62%)Subs6 KO/TKO (50%)
-120Vegas Odds+110
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Yorgan De CastrovsCarlos Felipe
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 6-1-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
 Knockouts 
4 KO/TKO (100%)Subs5 KO/TKO (83%)
-220Vegas Odds+200
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Germaine de RandamievsJulianna Pena
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 9-4-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
 Knockouts 
6 KO/TKO (75%)Subs4 KO/TKO (44%)
-145Vegas Odds+135
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Kyler PhillipsvsCameron Else
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 10-4-0
 Knockouts 
3 KO/TKO (33%)Subs4 KO/TKO (57%)
-460Vegas Odds+410
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Dequan TownsendvsDusko Todorovic
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 21-11-0RecordRecord: 9-0-0
 Knockouts 
6 KO/TKO (60%)Subs12 KO/TKO (57%)
+310Vegas Odds-340
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Carlos ConditvsCourt McGee
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 30-13-0RecordRecord: 20-9-0
 Knockouts 
5 KO/TKO (56%)Subs15 KO/TKO (50%)
+110Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Charles JourdainvsJosh Culibao
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 10-3-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
 Knockouts 
5 KO/TKO (26%)Subs7 KO/TKO (70%)
-450Vegas Odds+360
8/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Jordan WilliamsvsNassourdine Imavov
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-2-0
 Knockouts 
5 KO/TKO (63%)Subs7 KO/TKO (78%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Loma LookboonmeevsJinh Yu Frey
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 4-2-0RecordRecord: 9-5-0
 Knockouts 
1 KO/TKO (11%)Subs3 KO/TKO (38%)
-150Vegas Odds+140
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Casey KenneyvsHeili Alateng
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 14-2-1RecordRecord: 14-7-1
 Knockouts 
1 KO/TKO (25%)Subs2 KO/TKO (14%)
-320Vegas Odds+290
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Luigi VendraminivsJessin Ayari
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 16-5-0
 Knockouts 
3 KO/TKO (19%)Subs4 KO/TKO (29%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
#N/Avs#N/A
#N/ADFS Salary#N/A
 Record 
 Knockouts 
4 KO/TKO (50%)Subs4 KO/TKO (100%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
7/10Lineup Pool2/10