The good times on Fight Island roll on. This is a lackluster card but offers some clear leverage plays that could make for huge spots. Definitely don’t be afraid to leave a good amount of salary on the table.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -120/ +110 | +465/+347 |
This is a pretty big step up for Aldana. Holm may be 38 but she's in phenominal shape and training as hard as ever. She's just better than Aldana everywhere. I don't think it ends ITD so it's a safe stack from that standpoint but Holm can fight slow. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Charles Jourdain | 9300 | Josh Culibao | Safe | -450 | -160 |
Jourdain is probably the biggest potential score on the slate. He's aggresive and dynamic in the striking department. Culibao is his first free pass in the UFC. He was due for an easier fight. | |||||
Kyler Phillips | 9200 | Cameron Else | Somewhat-Safe | -460 | -175 |
Phillips has the pace to post another big score. He's well-rounded and a plus athlete. He does bear a little risk in the style he fights and Else is average but capable of a finish. At $100 less than Jourdain he's also likely bears a bit higher ownership. | |||||
Casey Kenney | 9000 | Heili Alateng | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -125 |
Kenney is over-priced in my opinion. He's a good grappler and solid boxer but better than the sum of his parts. That makes him live for a letdown as a big favorite. Not a fade but someone I'm reducing in my pool. | |||||
Dusko Todorovic | 9100 | Dequan Townsend | Moderate | -340 | +145 |
The risk on Dusko is that he's not in a fight that is going to pay off the price tag. Townsend is a strong cat and throws back with enough power to keep opponents honest. Possible boring decision here for the debutant. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Yorgan De Castro | 8900 | Carlos Felipe | Moderate | -220 | -105 |
De Castro should come out and lean into his signature leg kick. Most heaveyweights don't defend them well. After a few land Felipe will likely have to crash forward or get chopped down. That's when De Castro can score a KO. | |||||
Germaine de Randamie | 8600 | Julianna Pena | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +305 |
The Iron Lady is making her yearly appearance. There's some concern that wrestling is her flaw and Pena's strength but I'm not overly concerned. GDR's kickboxing tends to neutrilize opponents not named Nunes before they can get going. | |||||
Court McGee | 8300 | Carlos Condit | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +500 |
Court is pretty well traveled at this point. He still uses his go to's of pace and grinding grappling to win when he can. If Condit doesn't drop him early he likely volumes his way to a sad decision. | |||||
Jordan Williams | 8700 | Nassourdine Imavov | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +166 |
Williams is a bit of a wildcard since he has diabetes and can't cut weight. Imavov isn't huge so there may not be size discrepancy. The $8700 price is off, though. Williams is a MME consideration only for me as a low owned pivot. | |||||
Jessin Ayari | 8200 | Luigi Vendramini | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +290 |
This fight features two men who haven't fought since 2018. Ayari is the bigger man, hence the slight favorite. | |||||
Luigi Vendramini | 8000 | Jessin Ayari | Risky | +100 | +255 |
Vendramini can finish on occasion. He'd likely be a value with any win ITD. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nassourdine Imavov | 7500 | Jordan Williams | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +220 |
The opening line was off, hence the DK pricing. Imavov is the better prospect if less proven man. He will be very chalky so tread with care. | |||||
Carlos Condit | 7900 | Court McGee | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +300 |
Condit likely needs a first round finish and knows it. That makes for an interesting option in DFS when the fighter manages to pull it off. | |||||
Heili Alateng | 7200 | Casey Kenney | Somewhat-Risky | +290 | +600 |
This line is a bit disrespectful to Alateng. Kenney should be the favorite but this is wide. I'm intrigued by the levereage available here. | |||||
Julianna Pena | 7600 | Germaine de Randamie | Risky | +135 | +340 |
Pena is in real danger on the feet. She'll need to close distance and wrestle bell to bell. She has the strenght. We'll see about the skill. | |||||
Cameron Else | 7000 | Kyler Phillips | Risky | +410 | +544 |
Else is a dangerous late replacement. He's racked up early finishes and Phillips fights at a fast pace. That varaince could end up with Else victorious. | |||||
Dequan Townsend | 7100 | Dusko Todorovic | Risky | +310 | +454 |
Townsend is your puncher's chance of the week with a UFC newcomer on tap. | |||||
Josh Culibao | 6900 | Charles Jourdain | Risky | +360 | +750 |
This is purely a leverage play. Jourdain can get takedown and held down. It's a longshot, though. |
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)Cash Plays:
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Holm | Aldana | $8,400 | ||||
Aldana | Holm | $7,800 | ||||
Jourdain | Culibao | $9,300 | to | Kenney | Alateng | $9,000 |
McGee | Condit | $8,300 | ||||
de Randamie | Pena | $8,600 | to | De Castro | Felipe | $8,900 |
Imavov | Williams | $7,500 | ||||
Total Salary | $49,900 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Jourdain | Culibao | $22 | to | Holm | Aldana | $20 |
De Castro | Felipe | $18 | ||||
Imavov | Williams | $15 | ||||
McGee | Condit | $17 | ||||
Pena | de Randamie | $12 | ||||
Suphisara | Frey | $15 | ||||
Total Salary | $99 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Phillips | Else | $9,200 | to | Jourdain | Culibao | $9,300 |
De Castro | Felipe | $8,900 | to | Kenney | Alateng | $9,000 |
Ayari | Vendramini | $8,200 | to | Vendramini | Ayari | $8,000 |
Condit | McGee | $7,900 | to | McGee | Condit | $8,300 |
de Randamie | Pena | $8,600 | to | Williams | Imavov | $8,700 |
Else | Phillips | $7,000 | to | Alateng | Kenney | $7,200 |
Total Salary | $49,800 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Phillips | Else | $21 | to | Jourdain | Culibao | $22 |
de Randamie | Pena | $18 | ||||
Kenney | Alateng | $19 | ||||
Ayari | Vendramini | $16 | ||||
Condit | McGee | $16 | ||||
Else | Phillips | $10 | to | Alateng | Kenney | $12 |
Total Salary | $100 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Holm -120, De Castro -220, Alateng +290
Favorite Props: de Randamie ITD +305
Long Shot: Else ITD +544
Live Dogs: Imavov, Else, Alateng, Condit, Pena
Stats & Picks:
Holly Holm | vs | Irene Aldana |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
Knockouts | ||
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Subs | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Yorgan De Castro | vs | Carlos Felipe |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
4 KO/TKO (100%) | Subs | 5 KO/TKO (83%) |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Germaine de Randamie | vs | Julianna Pena |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
Knockouts | ||
6 KO/TKO (75%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Kyler Phillips | vs | Cameron Else |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
3 KO/TKO (33%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (57%) |
-460 | Vegas Odds | +410 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Dequan Townsend | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 21-11-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
Knockouts | ||
6 KO/TKO (60%) | Subs | 12 KO/TKO (57%) |
+310 | Vegas Odds | -340 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Carlos Condit | vs | Court McGee |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 30-13-0 | Record | Record: 20-9-0 |
Knockouts | ||
5 KO/TKO (56%) | Subs | 15 KO/TKO (50%) |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Charles Jourdain | vs | Josh Culibao |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
5 KO/TKO (26%) | Subs | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +360 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Jordan Williams | vs | Nassourdine Imavov |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
5 KO/TKO (63%) | Subs | 7 KO/TKO (78%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Jinh Yu Frey |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 4-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
Knockouts | ||
1 KO/TKO (11%) | Subs | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Casey Kenney | vs | Heili Alateng |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 14-2-1 | Record | Record: 14-7-1 |
Knockouts | ||
1 KO/TKO (25%) | Subs | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
-320 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Luigi Vendramini | vs | Jessin Ayari |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
Knockouts | ||
3 KO/TKO (19%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
#N/A | vs | #N/A |
#N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record | ||
Knockouts | ||
4 KO/TKO (50%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (100%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |