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We’re back in Abu Dhabi on “Fight Island” for UFC 253. Two belts are on the line with a pretty solid Oceana themed card. Keep in mind the judging was somewhat suspect last time we were here so look for finishers where possible.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Safe | -185/ +160 | +135/+242 |
| The UFC has been building the hype for this fight with the full force of their promotion machine. It's a great match up. Costa has looked invincible against moderate competition. Izzy has transitioned from kickboxing better than almost anyone. The main question here is what will Costa do to get in range and land? Adesanya’s length, speed, and defensive prowess make hitting him an immense challenge. If Costa has an answer, we have an all-time great fight here. If not, expect five rounds of him getting pieced up at range. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jake Matthews | 9400 | Diego Sanchez | Safe | -750 | +140 |
| Matthews is an average UFC talent. That should be more than enough to dispose of this version of Sanchez. He’s cashing checks at this point and not competitive in fights in the least. The only risk is that Matthews respects him too much and doesn’t commit to earning a stoppage early. | |||||
| Dominick Reyes | 9000 | Jan Blachowicz | Moderate | -270 | -105 |
| In a very close fight for the vacant 205 belt Reyes is the correct favorite. If he doesn’t get out-grappled he likely lands a fight stopping counter on Jan at some point. | |||||
| Brad Riddell | 9200 | Alex Da Silva | Moderate | -340 | +130 |
| Riddell is reckless, which is a plus and minus. He creates fights with high scoring but that also invites variance. It’s a big price to pay, though. I’ll certainly mix him in but he’s no lock. | |||||
| Juan Espino | 9100 | Tony Kelley | Somewhat-Risky | -300 | -125 |
| The draw with Espino is a singular focus on grappling at heavyweight. That’s often a major flaw for most big men and once someone of his size is on top you’re in trouble for a long stretch. The risk is that Hughes' safe approach to fights allows him to defend takedowns and we end up with a slow paced HW kickboxing bout. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Zubaira Tukhugov | 8200 | Hakeem Dawodu | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +315 |
| Tukhugov has the edge in wrestling and punching power. Dawodu is the better technical striker. If Tukh doesn’t land a fight ender or get the wrestle grind going he may struggle. Either of those score big, however. | |||||
| Hakeem Dawodu | 8000 | Zubaira Tukhugov | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +400 |
| Fight enders and grappling endurance are hard to deliver in MMA, however. Dawodu probably out strikes Tukhugov in that case and has to hope he gets a fair shake with the judges. | |||||
| Ludovit Klein | 8300 | Shane Young | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +170 |
| Klein is a dangerous kickboxer with a reputation for a great kicking game. That’s a dangerous spot for a guy like Young who moves forward and gets hit as often as he does. It’s a very close fight. | |||||
| Ketlen Vieira | 8800 | Sijara Eubanks | Risky | -185 | +415 |
| Vieira would be a bigger favorite if Eubanks hadn’t just stunned Julia Avila. The big difference here is that Eubanks won’t have a grappling edge to allow her to conserve energy. She’s likely to show the shoddy gas tank we’re accustomed to seeing and get into trouble over the second half of the fight. | |||||
| Kai Kara-France | 8900 | Brandon Royval | Risky | -235 | +325 |
| KKF has been a decision machine in the UFC in a bad way. He was a finisher on the regional scene. Maybe he can get back to his finishing ways against Royval who will definitely press the issue. If not he has a low but safe floor. | |||||
| Khadis Ibragimov | 8700 | Danilo Marques | Risky | -165 | +165 |
| The UFC is really working to get Khadis a win. Russian talent is a moneymaker and they can get some more mileage from him with a win. His performances have been all over the map, though. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Shane Young | 7900 | Ludovit Klein | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +255 |
| Young isn’t shy about his intentions. He’s going to march forward and give better than he gets. It’s going to be a great fight. If Young avoids getting dropped his heavy punching and volume should carry the day. | |||||
| Jan Blachowicz | 7200 | Dominick Reyes | Somewhat-Risky | +230 | +330 |
| Jan has been a moneymaker for his backers lately. Could this be yet another spot he gets underestimated as a value? He’d need to take a grapple heavy approach. Something he’s not committed to consistently. It should be a closer fight than the pricing indicates, though. | |||||
| William Knight | 7600 | Aleksa Camur | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +180 |
| Throwing with bad intentions is Knight’s calling card. He’s out-classed on the feet here and it will likely show. That may not matter if Camur leaves the opening he did for Justin Ledet. Knight’s punches will hurt a lot more. | |||||
| Brandon Royval | 7300 | Kai Kara-France | Risky | +195 | +300 |
| Royval makes fight’s fun. He’s aggressive and not afraid to be on his back working for submissions from guard. That’s enough to pose problems to most mixed martial artists. KKF is a very tight fighter, however. Royval will need to earn respect in some way, be it striking or wrestling. | |||||
| Alex Da Silva | 7000 | Brad Riddell | Risky | +280 | +400 |
| Da Silva is an interesting leverage play with Riddell likely to be chalky. The fight should be very back and forth with Da Silva having the grappling advantage. There’s a very real chance a wild exchange ends up with him submitting Riddell. | |||||
| Sijara Eubanks | 7400 | Ketlen Vieira | Risky | +160 | +500 |
| Eubanks isn’t likely to dominate Vieira with her grappling the way she just did Julia Avila. Her main path here is slightly sharper striking that could end up in KO or knockdown of Vieira, who was just flattened by Irene Aldana’s boxing. | |||||
| Jeff Hughes | 7100 | Juan Espino | Risky | +250 | +454 |
| Hughes would need some flukey heavyweight juju to go down here. It’s been that kind of year, though. Maybe he reverses a gassed Espino and hurts him enough with some ground and pound to get a surprise stoppage. | |||||
| Danilo Marques | 7500 | Khadis Ibragimov | Risky | +145 | +240 |
| Ibragimov has been a variance machine, coming out on the losing end of it three straight times now. Marques is a very low caliber fighter but looks mean enough. Does Ibragimov get finished and wash out of the UFC entirely? | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Adesanya | Costa | $8,500 | to | Reyes | Blachowicz | $9,000 |
| Costa | Adesanya | $7,700 | to | Blachowicz | Reyes | $7,200 |
| Matthews | Sanchez | $9,400 | ||||
| Kara-France | Royval | $8,900 | ||||
| Young | Klein | $7,900 | to | Tukhugov | Dawodu | $8,200 |
| Knight | Camur | $7,600 | to | Eubanks | Vieira | $7,400 |
| Total Salary | $50,000 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Reyes | Blachowicz | $9,000 | to | Matthews | Sanchez | $9,400 |
| Tukhugov | Dawodu | $8,200 | to | Dawodu | Tukhugov | $8,000 |
| Adesanya | Costa | $8,500 | to | Costa | Adesanya | $7,700 |
| Young | Klein | $7,900 | to | Klein | Young | $8,300 |
| Da Silva | Riddell | $7,000 | to | Riddell | Da Silva | $9,200 |
| Knight | Camur | $7,600 | to | Camur | Knight | $8,600 |
| Total Salary | $48,200 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Adesanya -185, Young +100
Favorite Props: Reyes/Blachowicz UNDER 2.5 rounds +130
Long Shot: Da Silva ITD +400
Live Dogs: Costa, Blachowicz, Da Silva, Royval, Eubanks, Dawodu, Knight
Stats & Picks:
| Israel Adesanya | vs | Paulo Costa |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 19-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 14 KO/TKO (74%) | Subs | 11 KO/TKO (85%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dominick Reyes | vs | Jan Blachowicz |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 26-8-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | 7 KO/TKO (27%) | |
| -270 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Kai Kara-France | vs | Brandon Royval |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 21-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 9 KO/TKO (43%) | Subs | 3 KO/TKO (27%) |
| -235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ketlen Vieira | vs | Sijara Eubanks |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 2 KO/TKO (20%) | Subs | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | vs | Zubaira Tukhugov |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 11-1-1 | Record | Record: 19-4-1 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 7 KO/TKO (64%) | Subs | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brad Riddell | vs | Alex Da Silva |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-2-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | 13 KO/TKO (62%) | |
| -340 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Diego Sanchez | vs | Jake Matthews |
| $6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 31-12-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 10 KO/TKO (33%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
| +525 | Vegas Odds | -750 |
| 0/10 | Lineup Pool | 9/10 |
| Shane Young | vs | Ludovit Klein |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 6 KO/TKO (46%) | Subs | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| William Knight | vs | Aleksa Camur |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| 8 KO/TKO (100%) | Subs | |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Juan Espino | vs | Jeff Hughes |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 (1 NC) |
| Knockouts | ||
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Khadis Ibragimov | vs | Danilo Marques |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | |
| Knockouts | ||
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Subs | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |