The MLB season is dwindling fast. It’s a great time examine quality of contact. One way to do that is by using Statcast’s Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG), which uses exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint to give the expected percentage. The expected outcome of balls in play values quality of contact and excludes the outcome. Any defensive shortcomings are also removed by xSLG. Hitters don’t get to choose the outfield they play against.

Here are the top 20 batters in SLG-xSLG with a qualified ABs. These are the guys with the worst luck.

  • Justin Turner has been fairly unlucky in this department in 2020. He just returned and went 3-4 the other night. Finishing the season strong is a hallmark of Turner’s.

  • Carlos Santana hasn’t delivered on his draft price so far. Those rostering the senior first baseman are hoping his luck starts to change. The entire top of the Cleveland batting order has been a disappointment to varying degrees. Maybe they can break out...