The MMA gods have found our offering of the integrity of last week’s event sufficient and we only had one problem fight. It’s been sorted and all of them are moving forward. The main event promises to be a gruesome affair for those that love that brand of violence. With eleven fights you want to be different but not wild in your risk taking.
| Main Event |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Anthony Smith vs Aleksandar Rakic | 7500/8700 | - | Stackability: Safe | +225/ -265 | +450/-105 |
| In my eyes, this on is all Rakic. We've written Smith off so many times only to see him emerge from a savage beating to finish a tired opponent. There's always a slight chance that happens. In all likelihood, it's just a second straight knockout that is tough to watch. Not a useful fight for cash as it's not five rounds. |
| | | | | | |
| Expensive |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Sean Brady | 9300 | Christian Aguilera | Safe | -400 | +160 |
| Brady is the safest bet on the card. He's much too sharp of a boxer to fall prey to Aguilera's brawling. Add in that Aguilera is mainly a punching bag and this could be a big DK score. |
Magomed Ankalaev | 9000 | Ion Cutelaba | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | -128 |
There's not much variance here. If they fought ten times Ankalaev KO's Cutelabe in the first two rounds eight tof hem. |
| Ricardo Lamas | 9200 | Bill Algeo | Moderate | -300 | +110 |
| I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about Lamas here. He's still a very solid mixed martial artist. The chin is a problem at this point. I don't think Algeo has the skills too put Lamas in trouble but it's a possibility. If the Ricardo Lamas of old shows up he bully's Algeo on his way to a win. |
| Alexa Grasso | 9100 | Tony Kelley | Somewhat-Risky | -275 | +437 |
| Grasso is a steep price. She's big making major improvements and the could pay off here. She still needs a very high-paced fight or finish in the first two rounds to hit value. |
| | | | | | |
| Mid-Range |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Aleksandar Rakic | 8700 | Anthony Smith | Moderate | -265 | -105 |
| Rakic is a must play at this price. Anthony Smith is going to get flattened. He's tough but Rakic is a terminator. |
| Neil Magny | 8600 | Robbie Lawler | Somewhat-Risky | 235 | +425 |
| Magny is more than capable of duplicating Colby Covington's performance of wrestle-boxing against Lawler. It wouldn't be as big of a score over three rounds (instead of five). Lawler will follow you around the ring looking to brawl. |
| Impa Kasanganay | 8500 | Maki Pitolo | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +384 |
| Here we go again with Pitolo, the king of variance. Kasanganay's strong wrestling should slice through him like a knife through butter. Rinse and repeat takedowns could lead to a slate breaking score for Impa. It's his UFC debut, and eighth propro fight, so there is some risk. |
| Emily Whitmire | 8200 | Polyana Viana | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +350 |
| Whitmire showed up to weigh ins in great shape. She should be able to handle Viana, who's been unable to beat anyone UFC caliber. |
| Polyana Viana | 8000 | Emily Whitmire | Risky | +120 | +265 |
| The way WMMA fights have been going that probably means Viana wins by arm bar from bottom and ruins the slate. |
| | | | | | |
| Pay-Downs |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Robbie Lawler | 7600 | Neil Magny | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +390 |
| Lawler the brawler will always come to throw down. There's a reason the people looking to take a fight with him aren't looking to do the same. He's easy to stick and move and out-wrestle at this point. He can floor an opponent given the chance and Magny has shown a vulnereable chin before. |
| Hannah Cifers | 7300 | Mallory Martin | Somewhat-Risky | +265 | +752 |
| I don't love Cifers missing weight. She's a bit of a head case alreaddy and seemed dejected at weigh ins. Still, she's going to be in a kick-boxing fight and that's where she's best. It's a decent value at the price. |
Ion Cutelaba | 7200 | Magomed Ankalaev | Risky | +260 | +345 |
Cutelaba comes out with one round of gas and haymakers until he wins or loses by KO. That's going to be pretty hard to pull off against someone as smooth as Ankalaev. |
| Maki Pitolo | 7700 | Impa Kasanganay | Risky | +115 | +210 |
| Pitolo will throw his coconut bombs and the fight will be useful in DFS if you predict the winner. I'm doing my best not to undersell him despite facing a major challenge with Impa's wrestling. Pitolo could hurt the newcomer and earn another wild finish. |
| Austin Springer | 7200 | Alex Caceres | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Springer missed wieght by a wide margin on a day's notice. That kind of tells me he didn't push too hard and was aware he'd miss. Hopefully he can still bring a pressure style to dictate the fight. Caceres can be dominated at times. |
| Alex Caceres | 7400 | Giga Chikadze | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Caceres does have the jiu-jitsu chops to pulls of a submission win. He also has unorthodox striking that can be a problem to figure out, especially on short notice. |
| Bill Algeo | 7000 | Ricardo Lamas | Risky | +250 | +385 |
| Algeo is the puncher's chance of the week. |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 7100 | Alexa Grasso | Risky | +235 | +615 |
| Kim fight's to her competition. That could lead to an exiting fight. There's a chance that she's useful in cash in a high paced decision loss. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Brady | Aguilera | $9,300 | to | Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $9,000 |
| Rakic | Smith | $8,700 | to | Lamas | Algeo | $9,200 |
| Magny | Lawler | $8,600 | | | | |
| Caceres | Springer | $7,400 | | | | |
| Whitmire | Viana | $8,200 | to | Di Chirico | Cummings | $7,800 |
| Cifers | Martin | $7,300 | to | Lawler | Magny | $7,600 |
| | Total Salary | $49,500 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Brady | Aguilera | $20 | to | Rakic | Smith | $23 |
| Magny | Lawler | $18 | | | | |
Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $19 | | | | |
| Kasanganay | Pitolo | $17 | to | Cummings | Di Chirico | $15 |
| Cifers | Martin | $12 | | | | |
| Caceres | Springer | $13 | to | Lawler | Magny | $14 |
| | Total Salary | $99 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $9,000 | to | Cutelaba | Ankalaev | $7,200 |
| Rakic | Smith | $8,700 | | | | |
| Magny | Lawler | $8,600 | to | Lawler | Magny | $7,600 |
| Kasanganay | Pitolo | $8,500 | to | Pitolo | Kasanganay | $7,700 |
| Whitmire | Viana | $8,200 | to | | | |
| Algeo | Lamas | $7,000 | to | Springer | Caceres | $7,200 |
| | Total Salary | $50,000 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Rakic | Smith | $23 | to | Ankalaev | Cutelaba | $19 |
| Brady | Aguilera | $20 | to | Magny | Lawler | $18 |
| Cummings | Di Chirico | $15 | to | Pitolo | Kasanganay | $16 |
| Whitmire | Viana | $16 | to | Kasanganay | Pitolo | $17 |
| Cifers | Martin | $12 | | | | |
| Lawler | Magny | $14 | | | | |
| | Total Salary | $100 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Favorite Bets: Rakic -265, Ankalaev -320, Kasanganay -135
Favorite Props: Brady ITD +160
Long Shot: Whitmire ITD +350
Live Dogs: Cifers, Lawler, Pitolo, Cutelaba, Di Chirico, Algeo
Stats & Picks:
| | | |
| Anthony Smith | vs | Aleksandar Rakic |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 33-15-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 18 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (75%) |
| 12 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| +225 | Vegas Odds | -265 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| | | |
| Robbie Lawler | vs | Neil Magny |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 28-14-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-8-0 |
| 20 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| +210 | Vegas Odds | 235 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| | | |
| Ji Yeon Kim | vs | Alexa Grasso |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 9-2-2 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +235 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Ricardo Lamas | vs | Bill Algeo |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 19-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (32%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 (1 NC) |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (80%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Maki Pitolo | vs | Impa Kasanganay |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| | | |
| Alessio Di Chirico | vs | Zak Cummings |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 23-7-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 12 SUBMISSIONS (52%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | | |
| Alex Caceres | vs | Giga Chikadze |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 16-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Sean Brady | vs | Christian Aguilera |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (79%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| | | |
| Polyana Viana | vs | Emily Whitmire |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 4-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| | | |
| Mallory Martin | vs | Hannah Cifers |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-6-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -325 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
