This card is a Frankenstein's monster of what the UFC set out to put on. We’re left taking chances on fighters we know far less about after late replacements and rebookings. Focus more on leverage and which fighters may be lower owned. With only ten fights and some clear chalk a lineup leaving salary on the table isn’t a bad thing.
UPDATE -- OSP MENIFIELD IS CANCELLED DUE TO POSITIVE COVID TEST
| Main Event |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Pedro Munhoz vs Frankie Edgar | 9000/7200 | - | Moderate | -265/ +245 | -140/+760 |
| The ageless Frankie Edgar is finally at his true weight class. It only took 15 years. This leaves some questions. Will he be as effective losing some of the speed (and possible wrestling) advantages? Does leveling the field on size pay dividends? Will it preserve his fading chin? That’s the one that matters the most to me. Against some 135ers it might, but Munhoz will swing on you for as long as the fight lasts. It may take some time but I see Munhoz hurting Frankie at some point. If he can do it with volume he should hit value. |
| | | | | | |
| Expensive |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mariya Agapova | 9300 | Shana Dobson | Safe | -130 | -325 |
| The line has gone crazy wide for Agapova. Her dominance in her UFC debut paired with Dobson losing to Cachoeira is driving it. Agapova’s aggression should make her a quality play. If Dobson somehow found some grappling she could slow the fight enough to spoil Agapova’s DK score. |
| Timur Valiev | 9100 | Mark Striegl | Somewhat-Safe | -440 | +200 |
| We’ll see how aggressive Timur is here. He can coast from time to time. It’s possible Jones forces the pace up, which would be great for us. |
| Mike Rodriguez | 8900 | Marcin Prachnio | Somewhat-Safe | -230 | -155 |
| Slow Mike doesn’t have to overthink this. Prachnio will come forward in wild fashion and you just have to time a haymaker right. Mike can do that, and likely will. |
| | | | | | |
| Mid-Range |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 8700 | Dwight Grant | Moderate | -190 | -155 |
| DRod should be able to land with volume and win if he avoids Grant’s big counters. That’s no easy task and could cause the pace to slow at points. |
| Joe Solecki | 8400 | Austin Hubbard | Somewhat-Risky | -103 | +435 |
| Solecki’s main path to victory is his jiu-jitsu. We’ve seen Hubbard out-grappled but not finished by some guys that are absolutely capable. Still, that doesn’t mean he’s totally safe in Solecki’s guard here. |
Alonzo Menifield | 8300 | Ovince Saint Preux | Somewhat-Risky | -112 | +155 |
Menifield has murderous power if you let him put it on you. That makes him a popular GPP play. He had issues in his last fight as it went deeper than he’s used to. Maybe that’s all the more incentive for him to get it done early. |
| Dwight Grant | 8800 | Daniel Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +410 |
| Grant has devastating counter-punch power. He does little to set it up, however. It’s his main path to victory, though. |
| Mizuki Inoue | 8600 | Amanda Lemos | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +475 |
| Inoue is the better all around fighter and more battle tested. She should out-box Lemos in route to a decision win. That’s a tough way to exceed value at this price. |
| Ike Villanueva | 8200 | Jordan Wright | Risky | +100 | +145 |
| Villanueva only needs to do what he does best: brawl. Wright doesn’t have much answer for anyone capable that pressures him. This could be a quick KO. |
| | | | | | |
| Pay-Downs |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ovince Saint Preux | 7900 | Alonzo Menifield | Somewhat-Risky | +102 | +175 |
OSP will need to survive the early going and out-grapple a tired opponent to yet an other come from behind submission win. He’s got the toughness to do it. |
| Jordan Wright | 7900 | Ike Villanueva | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +155 |
| There is a chance Wright’s unorthodox style throws Villanueva off enough for Wright to secure back control and a rear-naked choke. |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 7700 | Carlton Minus | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +230 |
| We’re hard pressed for dogs this card. Semelsberger is live enough at $7700. |
| Austin Hubbard | 7800 | Joe Solecki | Risky | -107 | +450 |
| Hubbard will need to duplicate his success in his last fight here. Punish the grappler for trying to get close to you and make them quit. He’s a pretty average fighter but one that’s rounding into a solid mixed martial artist in all areas. |
| Amanda Lemos | 7600 | Mizuki Inoue | Risky | +110 | +280 |
| Lemos is likely looking for another finish. That makes her worth the risk at this price in GPPs. |
| Shana Dobson | 6800 | Mariya Agapova | Risky | +925 | +180 |
| There is a slight chance Agapova has looked great due to her size advantage. Dobson comes close to matching her there. If Dobson can grapple somewhat effectively she may be able to put Agapova in trouble. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Agapova | Dobson | $9,300 | to | Valiev | Striegl | $9,100 |
| Munhoz | Edgar | $9,000 | | | | |
| Rodriguez | Grant | $8,700 | to | Rodriguez | Prachnio | $8,900 |
| Edgar | Munhoz | $7,200 | | | | |
| Semelsberger | Minus | $7,700 | | | | |
| Hubbard | Solecki | $7,800 | | | | |
| | Total Salary | $49,700 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Agapova | Dobson | $19 | | | | |
| Munhoz | Edgar | $21 | | | | |
| Rodriguez | Grant | $18 | | | | |
| Edgar | Munhoz | $18 | | | | |
| Hubbard | Solecki | $15 | | | | |
| Dobson | Agapova | $9 | | | | |
| | Total Salary | $100 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Munhoz | Edgar | $9,000 | to | Valiev | Striegl | $9,100 |
| Rodriguez | Prachnio | $8,900 | | | | |
| Villanueva | Grant | $8,200 | to | Wright | | $7,900 |
Saint Preux | Menifield | $7,900 | to | Menifield | Saint Preux | $8,300 |
| Solecki | Hubbard | $8,400 | | | | |
| Lemos | Inoue | $7,600 | to | Inoue | Lemos | $8,600 |
| | Total Salary | $50,000 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Munhoz | Edgar | $21 | | | | |
| Rodriguez | Prachnio | $19 | | | | |
| Villanueva | Grant | $17 | | | | |
Saint Preux | Menifield | $16 | | | | |
| Solecki | Hubbard | $16 | | | | |
| Dobson | Agapova | $9 | | | | |
| | Total Salary | $98 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Favorite Bets: Munhoz -265, Villanueva +100
Favorite Props: Mike Rodriguez ITD -155, OSP ITD +175
Long Shot: Solecki ITD +435
Live Dogs: OSP, Edgar, Lemos, Hubard, Semelsberger
Stats & Picks:
| | | |
| Pedro Munhoz | vs | Frankie Edgar |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 18-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-8-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | | |
Ovince Saint Preux | vs | Alonzo Menifield |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 24-14-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
11 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
+102 | Vegas Odds | -112 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Marcin Prachnio | vs | Mike Rodriguez |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| +190 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| | | |
| Mariya Agapova | vs | Shana Dobson |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 3-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +925 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| | | |
| Daniel Rodriguez | vs | Dwight Grant |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | | |
| Amanda Lemos | vs | Mizuki Inoue |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 7-1-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Austin Hubbard | vs | Joe Solecki |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
| -107 | Vegas Odds | -103 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Ike Villanueva | vs | Jordan Wright |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 16-10-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 (1 NC) |
| 13 KO/TKO (81%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Carlton Minus | vs | Matthew Semelsberger |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Timur Valiev | vs | Trevin Jones |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -440 | Vegas Odds | +390 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
