This isn’t a star studded Pay Per View card but it’s chocked full of MMA goodness. Look no further than Sterling-Sandhagen, a fight that could headline a card on it’s own. We’re still at the APEX center with the smaller octagon so there may be more finishes again. That means you need a big scores and the nuts in your lineup.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer9400/6800-Stackability: Moderate-600/ +450-180/+585
One of the most dominant fighters of all time is defending one of her two titles. The trouble is it’s the 145 belt and there are no real challengers there. Spencer is the best the UFC can do. She’s tough and has some nice BJJ but doesn’t belong in the ring with Nunes. That toughness could get her into the late rounds so it’s moderately stackable. There’s better upside elsewhere, though. Nunes biggest risk is finishing it too early or easily and not padding the stats to be a top DFS score.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Sean O'Malley9300Eddie WinelandSafe-500-165
Sugar Sean has put himself right back in the conversation at 135 lbs after a USADA imposed layoff. His rangy volume striking is a nightmare to decipher for opponents. He can easily put up 150 SS in a win by decision so there’s some built in safety.
Herbert Burns8900Evan DunhamSomewhat-Safe-225-125
The younger Burns brother has finally made it to the UFC and is looking to make his mark. Much like Gilbert he has top notch BJJ backed by scary striking power. Dunham’s body is toast after years of punishment and two straight body shot KO losses. That’s the most likely outcome here. He will garner high ownership.
Cody Stamann9100Brian KelleherModerate-250+445
Stamann is a gritty fighter who pushes a pace and effectively mixes grappling and striking from distance. I don’t love the price, though. Not for the low odds he finishes Kelleher.
Alonzo Menifield9000Devin ClarkSomewhat-Risky-225-165
We get another spot against Devin Clark here for a young striker to show they’ve shored up their defensive grappling. Menifield has had some struggles with it a few fights back. He did keep his cool and come away with the win, though. It’s purely a GPP play.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Charles Byrd8800Maki PitoloSomewhat-Safe-175+135
Byrd is levels above Pitolo in every depart. Every one save his chin. That’s why we’re getting a discount on him. I’m hammering that discount. Pitolo barely has a puncher's chance. Byrd could end things early or rack up wrestling stats.
Alex Perez8300Jussier FormigaModerate-135+252
Perez failed his last top 5 test in a one-sided loss to Joe Benavidez. Formiga isn’t on Joe B’s level anymore but is still a tough out due to his grappling control. His passive style also destroys opponents DK potential. To hit value Perez will need his best performance to date. He may be ready to do it.
Ian Heinisch8400Gerald MeerschaertModerate-135+400
This fight is back on the card after a false positive COVID-19 test. Heinisch fights pretty tight and can do a little of everything. A GPP play here is a hope that Meerschaerts super loose and aggressive style can draw out a high scoring performance from Heinisch.
Chase Hooper8500Alex CaceresSomewhat-Risky-195-135
Hooper is super green at only 20 years old. He’s got great submission skills but the striking defenses is full of holes. Caceres isn’t so much of a threat to KO him as he is to control the fight behind it. It’s early sub or bust for the young man.
Neil Magny8700Anthony Rocco MartinSomewhat-Risky-135+380
Magny has made a career of overachieving in spots we doubt him. I don’t see him hitting value at $8700 but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. His jab and grapple style gives many issues.
Aljamain Sterling8200Cory SandhagenModerate-115+255
Aljo’s best path to victory is via submission. Sandhagen can be taken down, though he’s dangerous on the ground with his long limbs, as well. He can match Sandhagen’s striking volume so this is a potential three-round stack.
Cory Sandhagen8000Aljamain SterlingModerate-105+400
That volume is Sandhagen’s calling card. He is very tall for the weight and puts his length to use aggressively from bell to bell. This is a tall test and likely a title eliminator. I’m siding with Sandhagen as a fighter built from a blueprint to give Aljo trouble.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Anthony Rocco Martin7500Neil MagnyModerate+115+330
Rocco Martin is never going to contend for a title. He’s going to be a solid UFC fighter his whole career, though. The $7500 price is below what his value should be. His grappling has been improving and his nice low kick should find a home on the wiry Magny.
Raphael Assuncao7600Cody GarbrandtModerate+120+315
The only real risk for Assuncao to lose is by not being able to handle Garbrandt’s inevitable blitz. That is a scary risk but one that seems solved after three straight KO losses for Cody. He’s got some serious CTE issues at this point and can’t take much on the chin.
Devin Clark7200Alonzo MenifieldSomewhat-Risky+185+500
Clark doesn’t hide his intentions. He goes in looking to grapple and hold opponents against the cage or on the mat. Menifield may not be ready to handle Clark’s level of wrestling. A boring decision may still hit 10x for Clark.
Brian Kelleher7100Cody StamannSomewhat-Risky+210+325
Kelleher has shown rumors of his UFC demise were greatly exaggerated with two straight ITD wins as an underdog. It’s a tall task to make it a third. I expect this fight to go to decision and be close. That’s what you want in a cash paydown. He may be chalky after those two performances at the price, however.
Gerald Meerschaert7800Ian HeinischSomewhat-Risky+115+300
GM3 is such an erratic fighter. Watching his fights is a rollercoaster of emotion. He doesn’t stay idle and that’s what we love for DFS. He will score stats as will his opponent. The fight is lined correctly but Meerschaert is worthy of inclusion in your GPP pool.
Alex Caceres7700Chase HooperRisky+168+415
A lot could go Caceres way against the young Hooper. Bruce Leroy has the tools to exploit the kids aggression and striking gaps. He’s been finished by BJJ specialists plenty himself, though.
Eddie Wineland6900Sean O'MalleyRisky+400+595
Wineland is always game for a fight. That likely plays into O’Malley’s striking. We haven’t see Sugar Sean pushed in the way Wineland can. If the vet can make it a sloppy brawl he’ll be in his element.
Maki Pitolo7400Charles ByrdRisky+155+255
The slightest of puncher’s chances.

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Byrd -175, Rocco Martin +15, Assuncao +120

Favorite Props: Stamann/Kelleher goes to DEC -215, Burns/Dunham UNDER 2.5 rounds -135

Long Shot: Perez via T/KO +315

Live Dogs: Assuncao, Martin, Kelleher, Clark, Caceras, Meershcaert, Formiga

Stats & Picks

 

Amanda NunesvsFelicia Spencer
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 19-4-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
13 KO/TKO (68%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (16%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-600Vegas Odds+450
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Raphael AssuncaovsCody Garbrandt
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 27-7-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
4 KO/TKO (15%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (82%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (37%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Aljamain SterlingvsCory Sandhagen
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 18-3-0RecordRecord: 12-1-0
4 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (11%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
5/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Neil MagnyvsAnthony Rocco Martin
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 22-8-0RecordRecord: 17-5-0
7 KO/TKO (32%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (6%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (53%)
-135Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Eddie WinelandvsSean O'Malley
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 24-13-1RecordRecord: 11-0-0
15 KO/TKO (63%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (64%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
+400Vegas Odds-500
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Alex CaceresvsChase Hooper
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 15-12-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-0-1
3 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
+168Vegas Odds-195
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ian HeinischvsGerald Meerschaert
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 30-12-0
4 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (19%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs23 SUBMISSIONS (74%)
-135Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Cody StamannvsBrian Kelleher
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 18-2-1RecordRecord: 21-10-0
6 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (43%)
-250Vegas Odds+210
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Charles ByrdvsMaki Pitolo
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 10-6-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (50%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
-175Vegas Odds+155
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Jussier FormigavsAlex Perez
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 23-7-0RecordRecord: 23-5-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (17%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (43%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
+115Vegas Odds-135
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Alonzo MenifieldvsDevin Clark
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 9-0-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
8 KO/TKO (89%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (27%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
-225Vegas Odds+185
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Evan DunhamvsHerbert Burns
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 18-8-1RecordRecord: 10-2-0
3 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (10%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (70%)
+185Vegas Odds-225
2/10Lineup Pool7/10