The UFC rolls on with a rare Wednesday card here. They plan on meeting their ESPN contract any way they have to. These aren’t the same caliber of fights as we saw at 249 but they are interesting matchups all the same. There aren’t too many sure things yet somehow less live dogs than usual. That makes for a good DFS landscape. Update: The Karl Roberson/Marvin Vettori fight is OFF for Wednesday night as Roberson has come down with an illness.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s) Price Opponent Risk Odds ITD
Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira 9000/7200 - Stackability: Moderate -185/ +170 -115/+280
Both of these fighters tend to outperform expectations. Neither quits easily and they can finish things on the feet or the mat. They’ve both become more economical and probably take their time with five scheduled rounds. It’s not a bad stack in cash games for all those reasons. I don’t see the loser having a huge score so it’s not a must. I’m backing the Glover side for the price.
           
Expensive
Fighter(s) Price Opponent Risk Odds ITD
Marvin Vettori 8900 Karl Roberson Safe #N/A #N/A
The Italian is a no-nonsense fighter. He’s efficient and doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. His pace isn’t always as high, causing some of his prior DK scores to be modest. He’s an excellent bet to win, however and has a real chance to end it ITD with a sub.
Sijara Eubanks 9200 Sarah Moras Somewhat-Safe -360 +390
Sarge has had a rollercoaster UFC career thus far. She’s looked talented but also frustrated in spots. This one is a layup if she doesn’t get sloppy. Moras can be bullied and her striking is subpar.
Hunter Azure 9100 Brian Kelleher Somewhat-Safe -192 +375
Azure has looked pretty solid in a brief career. Taking out Brad Katona in his UFC debut got everyone’s attention. His solid grappling will be trouble for Kelleher who relies on being able to out grapple foes.
Omar Morales 8800 Gabriel Benitez Moderate -165 +127
Morales has a reputation as a finisher, though he couldn’t avoid the decision win over the getable Dong Hyun Ma in his UFC debut. He’s a good kickboxer. I’m not sure he’s ready for Benitez yet. Moggly has some of the hardest kicks in MMA.
           
Mid-Range
Fighter(s) Price Opponent Risk Odds ITD
Drew Dober 8300 Alexander Hernandez Somewhat-Safe -130 +260
Dober is a pretty solid bet to win at the price. Hernandez has adopted a tentative style that may suppress scoring but let’s hope Dober can overcome that. His power is nasty and his BJJ makes him live on the mat.
Ricky Simon 8600 Ray Borg Moderate -150 +400
Simon is all action, sometimes to his own detriment. He can match Borg’s wrestling and should foil his opponents one path to victory as long as he fights a smart fight. If he can create striking exchanges Borg could be in trouble.
Philipe Lins 8500 Andrei Arlovski Moderate -172 +317
Lins is returning after winning the 2018 PFL HW Championship. It’s a decent feather in his cap but he was 3-3 in Bellator prior. Twelve of his fourteen wins have come inside the distance. Arlovski, even at this age, presents a challenge to score on. We’ll learn a good amount about where Lins is at.
Ovince Saint Preux 8700 Ben Rothwell Moderate -130 +180
OSP tends to be sub or bust these days. That’s a tall order coming up to heavyweight and facing Rothwell. There’s a chance he can create the kind of scramble he needs for it. If not he’ll need to have enough of a speed advantage to win the striking battle.
Chase Sherman 8400 Ike Villanueva Risky -155 +405
The Vanilla Gorilla is good off his front foot, utilizing his reach and a solid leg kick. That's probably enough to put Villanueva in trouble. Sherman is easy to hit in exchanges, however. That's where Villanueva is at his best.
Thiago Moises 8200 Michael Johnson Somewhat-Risky -110 +115
Both men in this fight are coming off disappointing performances. Moises couldn’t solve Damir Ismagulov’s striking, which is a concern. He’ll need a performance like the fight prior to win here with a balance of good leg kicks, wrestling, and threaten submissions.
Michael Johnson 8000 Thiago Moises Somewhat-Risky +100 +390
Johnson’s star has faded. Once a top contender he’s now losing to the likes of Stevie Ray. He’s taken a lot of damage over his career and it could be catching up. He’s got better boxing than most and has brought his wrestling along over the years. I’d favor him at full strength, though that’s less than likely.
           
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s) Price Opponent Risk Odds ITD
Ben Rothwell 7500 Ovince Saint Preux Moderate +120 +255
His size is Rothwell's typical advantage and that holds true against a guy who was a large LHW but average sized HW. OSP's best fights are where he finds fluke submissions. Rothwell is hard to sub. That could be trouble if he doesn't also have a speed advantage as he's older these days.
Ray Borg 7600 Ricky Simon Moderate +140 +550
Borg is singularly focused on wrestling you into dust. That worked great for him down at 125 (especially when he didn't bother making weight). Up at 135 against a strong wrestler in Simon there's a real chance he's in trouble. Simon has been out-grappled in prior fights, though. A wrestling based decision at this price is probably the nuts.
Alexander Hernandez 7900 Drew Dober Moderate +120 +360
We aren't likely to see the fighter who KO'd Beneil Dariush in his debut ever again. Hernandez won't take those kinds of risks anymore. His path to victory here is probably grappling based. Dober has legit BJJ so that may be ill-advised.
Gabriel Benitez 7400 Omar Morales Somewhat-Risky +155 +240
Moggly can crack, with some of the hardest kicks in the division. He gave Sodiq Yusuff all he could handle in an action pack first round before being KO’d last fight. I’m not sure Morales can handle that smoke the same way. He’s one of my core salary savers.
Karl Roberson 7300 Marvin Vettori Risky #N/A #N/A
Roberson looked good his last time out against UFC newcomer Kopylov. Vettori is much less green. He’d have to land a KO in my opinion. Something Isreal Adesanya never came close to doing in their fight.
Brian Kelleher 7100 Hunter Azure Risky +177 +178
Plenty wrote Kelleher off in his last fight against another prospect. Azure is a much more solid up and comer, however. It wouldn’t be the first time Kelleher shocked us if he manages to find a way to win.
Ike Villanueva 7800 Chase Sherman Risky +145 +420
It's a major concern that Villanueva is up at heavyweight as a former 185er. He's giving up a good amount of reach and size to Sherman. Chase has good forward offense but can be hit. If Villanueva makes it a brawl he could find a surprise KO.
Andrei Arlovski 7700 Philipe Lins Risky +162 +410
Arlovski has been left for dead in the UFC so many times I've lost count. He's still taking fights so I'll assume he still has something left. Unless you have Rozenstruik like power you aren't taking him out, either.

 

 


(Sample lineup)Cash Plays

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Plays 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays

Favorite Bets: Dober -125, Vettori -180, Azure -200 

Favorite Props: Eubanks ITD +225, Sherman ITD +120

Long Shot: Benitez ITD +375

Live Dogs: Teixeira, Rothwell, Benitez, Borg, Hernandez, Arlovski 

Stats & Picks

Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira
$9,000 DFS Salary $7,200
Record: 32-14-0 Record Record: 30-7-0
18 KO/TKO (55%) Knockouts 17 KO/TKO (57%)
12 SUBMISSIONS (36%) Subs 8 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-170 Vegas Odds +160
4/10 Lineup Pool 5/10
     
Ben Rothwell vs Ovince Saint Preux
$7,500 DFS Salary $8,700
Record: 37-12-0 Record Record: 24-13-0
0 KO/TKO (0%) Knockouts 28 KO/TKO (76%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) Subs 6 SUBMISSIONS (16%)
+120 Vegas Odds -130
5/10 Lineup Pool 3/10
     
Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober
$7,900 DFS Salary $8,300
Record: 11-2-0 Record Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC)
11 KO/TKO (46%) Knockouts 4 KO/TKO (36%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (33%) Subs 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
+100 Vegas Odds -110
3/10 Lineup Pool 6/10
     
Ricky Simon vs Ray Borg
$8,600 DFS Salary $7,600
Record: 15-3-0 Record Record: 13-4-0
1 KO/TKO (8%) Knockouts 9 KO/TKO (41%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) Subs 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-160 Vegas Odds +150
5/10 Lineup Pool 4/10
     
Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori
$7,300 DFS Salary $8,900
Record: 9-2-0 Record Record: 14-4-1
5 KO/TKO (33%) Knockouts 2 KO/TKO (22%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) Subs 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
+165 Vegas Odds -175
3/10 Lineup Pool 6/10
     
Andrei Arlovski vs Philipe Lins
$7,700 DFS Salary $8,500
Record: 28-19-0 (2 NC) Record Record: 14-3-0
2 KO/TKO (14%) Knockouts 17 KO/TKO (61%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) Subs 3 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
+135 Vegas Odds -145
3/10 Lineup Pool 6/10
     
Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises
$8,000 DFS Salary $8,200
Record: 20-15-0 Record Record: 12-4-0
8 KO/TKO (57%) Knockouts 8 KO/TKO (42%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) Subs 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
-105 Vegas Odds -105
4/10 Lineup Pool 4/10
     
Sijara Eubanks vs Sarah Moras
$9,200 DFS Salary $7,000
Record: 5-4-0 Record Record: 6-6-0
3 KO/TKO (25%) Knockouts 2 KO/TKO (50%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) Subs 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-355 Vegas Odds +320
6/10 Lineup Pool 2/10
     
Gabriel Benitez vs Omar Morales
$7,400 DFS Salary $8,800
Record: 21-8-0 Record Record: 9-0-0
  Knockouts 7 KO/TKO (35%)
  Subs 9 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
+160 Vegas Odds -170
5/10 Lineup Pool 4/10
     
Hunter Azure vs Brian Kelleher
$9,100 DFS Salary $7,100
Record: 8-0-0 Record Record: 20-10-0
3 KO/TKO (50%) Knockouts 3 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) Subs 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-192 Vegas Odds +177
7/10 Lineup Pool 2/10
     
Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva
$8,400 DFS Salary $7,800
Record: 14-6-0 Record Record: 16-9-0
7 KO/TKO (33%) Knockouts 12 KO/TKO (92%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (48%) Subs 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-155 Vegas Odds +145
4/10 Lineup Pool 4/10