These are strange days my friends. We’re in a worldwide crisis with more questions than answers. Every major sport save MMA has been postponed. Let’s bond over some sanctioned hand to hand combat. UFC Brasilia is a pretty solid card for the last confirmed event we may get. The matchups are flush with potential finishes. There are good dogs to choose from. All in all, an exciting night of fights. I wish you luck in this and all endeavors in the near future.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -135/ +125 | +117/+175 | The main event was kept intact after Lee missed weight. Oliveira looks to be the bigger man despite that, though Lee has a reach advantage (typically the case). The way I see it, Lee won’t be looking to wrestle with someone who has more UFC submissions than anyone not named Maia. Then it’s a striking affair. Oliveira has developed a lethal kickboxing game, despite some defensive flaws. It could go either way but Oliveira has more outs to win, IMO. |
Expensive | Renato Moicano | 9400 | Damir Hadzovic | Safe | -345 | +182 | Moicano’s star has fallen pretty far. He was once a title contender. Two straight KO losses leave us with plenty of questions. They came to elite fighters so I give some leeway. He has the grappling to dominate Hadzovic in the safer route to victory. Hopefully he uses it and protects his chin. |
| Amanda Ribas | 9300 | Randa Markos | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | +315 | The UFC smells a star in the making with Ribas. Markos is the next stepping stone. Ribas shouldn’t have much trouble winning but Markos tends to go the distance and at a mediocre pace. That’s no bueno for DK. Cash games are fine. She may not hit value for GPPs, however. | |
| Gilbert Burns | 9000 | Demian Maia | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +247 | Burns has all the tools. Great athlete, hits like a truck, and lethal BJJ. He can be inconsistent, however. Part of me hopes this turns into an elite grappling contest. That’s a coinflip. If he can touch the aging Maia up with his hands it will be smoother sailing. | |
| Veronica Macedo | 9100 | Bea Malecki | Risky | -155 | +187 | The "risky" tag doesn't make an appearance here very often. Macedo is facing an enormous size disadvantage. Add that to her already questionable skill and it's a fade. Her ownership will reflect this, though. If you feel like taking a blind risk, this is one. | |
Mid-Range | Johnny Walker | 8600 | Nikita Krylov | Moderate | -200 | +155 | You’ve probably seen Walker’s highlight real. He’s explosiveness personified. The rub is that his chin is also shot. If you box him tight you can land. When you do he gets hurt. If you hesitate at all he can put a flying knee across your jaw. |
| Francisco Trinaldo | 8900 | John Makdessi | Somewhat-Safe | -165 | +243 | Massaranduba is a Brazilian legend. He's long in the tooth but just keeps going. He probably wins here but Makdessi has been particularly gunshy of late. It'll be hard to hit value at $8,900. | |
| Jussier Formiga | 8800 | Brandon Moreno | Somewhat-Safe | -150 | +450 | Formiga probably out-grapples Moreno with ease. That makes a submission live. He’s often content to just maintain position, though. It’s a spot to include in GPP pools in a modest amount. | |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 8400 | Aleksei Kunchenko | Moderate | -125 | +324 | Styles make fights. Zaleski goes to war every time out. That plays to some fighters advantage like it did in his loss to Jiangliang Li. Kunchenko isn’t a timid fighter but certainly more measured. I think this has a sneaky ITD shot. | |
| Enrique Barzola | 8700 | Rani Yahya | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +297 | Barzola has the tools to duplicate Ricky Simon’s controlling performance against Yahya. I can promise you’ll sweat the entire affair, though. | |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 8500 | Maryna Moroz | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +285 | I don’t love the price on a fighter with minimal experience coming off a layoff. She has potential based on what we’ve seen previously, though. | |
| Bruno Silva | 8200 | David Dvorak | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +285 | Our coin toss fight of the night. It’s not classic grappler vs striker but those happen to be the respective fighter’s strengths and weaknesses. Silva could expose Dvorak’s lack of competition with a sub. Dvorak could find Silva chin. I lean Dvorak ever so slightly. | |
| David Dvorak | 8000 | Bruno Silva | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +181 | ||
Pay-Downs | Nikita Krylov | 7600 | Johnny Walker | Moderate | +130 | +155 | Krylov has the striking (and jiu-jitsu) to get it done against the flawed Walker. I like him a hair better as the lower priced fighter. It’s going to a fun/nerve racking fight. |
| Aleksei Kunchenko | 7800 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Moderate | +115 | +315 | Power was Kunchenko’s calling card to a degree on the Russian circuit. His age and possibly stricter PED testing have prevented that from showing up in the UFC. Nevertheless, he is coming off his only loss and is a complete product. Zaleski wades in guns blazing. He may find Kunchenko has the firepower to answer. | |
| Rani Yahya | 7500 | Enrique Barzola | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +310 | It’s sub or bust for Yahya. He’s spent a sixteen fight UFC career making that work to an 11-4 (1 NC) record. Barzola’s ring IQ is pretty poor at times. The dog is live. | |
| Maryna Moroz | 7700 | Mayra Bueno Silva | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +710 | Moroz is a tough fighter to predict. She’s made some improvements since moving camps. She could be the busier fighter, as well. It helps that there won’t be a crowd cheering on her Brazilian opponent. | |
| Bea Malecki | 7100 | Veronica Macedo | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +345 | Malecki looks like some kind of Valkerie towering over Macedo. Her striking advantage combined with that reach spells real trouble. She’s going to be chalky at the price. | |
| Demian Maia | 7200 | Gilbert Burns | Risky | +170 | +600 | The godfather of submission grappling in the UFC is making perhaps his last appearance. It’s no cakewalk either. Burns BJJ is among the best in MMA. That could be his undoing. If he chooses to grapple with Maia he opens the path to victory for Demain. | |
| Brandon Moreno | 7400 | Jussier Formiga | Risky | +140 | +440 | It would be a pretty big jump in skill for Moreno to defeat Formiga. Moreno comes to fight and sometimes that’s all you can ask in an underdog. | |
| Randa Markos | 6900 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | +305 | +900 | Markos isn’t easily finished and will fight bell to bell. That’s a good alternative for cash game salary savings. She has the submission skills to be dangerous on the mat as well. | |
| Damir Hadzovic | 6800 | Renato Moicano | Risky | +315 | +600 | The puncher's chance goes here most cards. You could do worse. Hadzovic hits hard and will swing until taken down. Moicana also has some chin questions. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Oliveira +130, Moicano -335, Malecki +145
Favorite Props: Yahya ITD +310, Krylov +155,
Long Shot: Maia ITD +600 or Burns ITD +247
Live Dogs: Oliveira, Maia, Krylov, Yahya, Malecki, Kunchenko, Moroz
Stats & Picks:
| Kevin Lee | vs | Charles Oliveira |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 28-8-0 (1 NC) |
| 3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 18 SUBMISSIONS (64%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Demian Maia | vs | Gilbert Burns |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 28-9-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 18 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 14 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +170 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Renato Moicano | vs | Damir Hadzovic |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) |
| -345 | Vegas Odds | +315 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Johnny Walker | vs | Nikita Krylov |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 26-7-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (82%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Francisco Trinaldo | vs | John Makdessi |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 24-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 15 SUBMISSIONS (58%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jussier Formiga | vs | Brandon Moreno |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 23-6-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-1 |
| 9 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Amanda Ribas | vs | Randa Markos |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +305 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | vs | Aleksei Kunchenko |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 21-6-0 | Record | Record: 20-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 20 SUBMISSIONS (77%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Rani Yahya | vs | Enrique Barzola |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 26-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-5-1 |
| 14 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (65%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +170 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | vs | Maryna Moroz |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Bruno Silva | vs | David Dvorak |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 10-4-1 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Veronica Macedo | vs | Bea Malecki |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 6-3-1 | Record | Record: 3-0-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 1/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |