We’re finally getting a PPV card after three straight Fight Night’s. It’s a double title fight event to boot. Both are excellent fights and should see some fireworks. As with most PPVs the matchmaking is more even and there’s a large mid-range. Build your base there.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -260/ +240 | +165/+335 | Props to Issy for seeking out Romero as his first title defense. It’s a crazy move and an interesting gamble. If he wins there’s no one near the credentials Romero has ready to challenge him. He’s the much better striker and Romero doesn’t seem keen on wrestling much these days. My biggest worry is that Issy gets too flashy at times and Romero could shock him during a moment like that. It’s going to be a tense five rounds. Not very interested in a cash stack. |
Expensive | Weili Zhang | 8900 | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Safe | -185 | +135 | Weili is a bully in the ring. She’s stronger and more fierce than most opponents. If Joanna comes with her usual barrage of strikes there will be plenty of opportunities for the hard-hitting Chinese Champion to do damage. |
Sean O'Malley | 9100 | Jose Quinonez | Somewhat-Safe | -330 | -110 | Making his return after injury and USADA issues, we get a fight that was supposed a while back. Both have improved but O’Malley is just too dynamic. Provided he’s not rusty, that is. | |
Mark Madsen | 9000 | Austin Hubbard | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | +240 | Madsen is a bull out there. He looks to wade in with hard overhands, followed up by Olympic caliber wrestling. I do worry some about how predictable he is. A better fighter is going to give him trouble at some point. Hubbard is sort of a master of none, though. | |
Rodolfo Vieira | 9300 | Saparbeg Safarov | Somewhat-Safe | -570 | -245 | Provided he doesn’t get one-punch KO’d this one should end with a Vieira submitting his opponent early. | |
Mid-Range | Beneil Dariush | 8700 | Drakkar Klose | Safe | -200 | +155 | Benny is better than most give him credit for. I also think he the worst matchup in the UFC for Klose, who doesn’t have much pace or power. He’s also got some holes in the wrestling game where Dariush excels. |
Jamall Emmers | 8500 | Giga Chikadze | Somewhat-Safe | -170 | +145 | Emmers should cruise behind his wrestling here. He’s stunted on us before, though. | |
Deron Winn | 8300 | Gerald Meerschaert | Moderate | -135 | +350 | I’m less gunshy since I faded Winn in his last loss. I think he’s a solid play here. His wrestling is definitely good enough to give Meerschaert trouble and he’s not afraid to get into striking exchanges despite reach disadvantages. His ownership should also be low. | |
Jingliang Li | 8600 | Neil Magny | Moderate | -167 | +140 | Li comes to bang and that may be a problem for Magny after he was left unconscious the last time we saw him. He can get out grappled, though. That’s Magny’s strong suit. | |
Alex Oliveira | 8400 | Max Griffin | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +185 | We probably know which version of Cowboy shows up pretty early. He’d toast Griffin at his best. Wear and tear, plus outside the ring issues, have eroded his skills some. If he’s not on point he loses a sloppy decision. | |
Danaa Batgerel | 8200 | Guido Cannetti | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | #N/A | Danaa is likely durable enough to survive an early onslaught and take over the later rounds. | |
Guido Cannetti | 8000 | Danaa Batgerel | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | #N/A | Cannetti comes out winging bombs, though. | |
Emily Whitmire | 8100 | Polyana Viana | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +415 | Whitmire got overrated for subbing Alex Albu but might be getting overlooked after Amanda Ribas dusted her last fight. Viana has the credentials but has shown nothing inside the octagon. This could be a buying opportunity. | |
Polyana Viana | 8100 | Emily Whitmire | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +250 | If her BJJ happens to show up there are likely to be scrambles she can utilize it in. Otherwise, she gets her walking papers. | |
Pay-Downs | Neil Magny | 7600 | Jingliang Li | Moderate | +157 | +600 | Magny can win this fight if he’s careful on the feet. His reach should help with that. Li also doesn’t have the highest fight IQ. A grappling based decision or possible sub is what I see here. |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk | 7300 | Weili Zhang | Moderate | +170 | +825 | Joanna is a great value for what she bring to the table here. Still, I favor Weili a good bit more. The potential volume for this fight is ridiculous if Joanna’s chin holds up after her tough weight cut making it not only a great cash stack but the rare possible GPP option. | |
Drakkar Klose | 7500 | Beneil Dariush | Somewhat-Risky | +152 | +435 | Klose has been improving each fight. I’ll give him that. His style is DK poison, though. Maybe he finds Benny’s chin at some point and surprises me. | |
Max Griffin | 7800 | Alex Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +410 | If Oliviera has one foot out the door Griffin will grind his way to a win. Backable dogs are scarce this card. | |
Austin Hubbard | 7200 | Mark Madsen | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +605 | There’s a chance Madsen hits the coming speed bump here. Hubbard is a good mixed martial artist in the sense that he can win a three-round fight. | |
Gerald Meerschaert | 7900 | Deron Winn | Risky | +125 | +210 | I’m lower than most on Meershaert here. He’s always inconsistent and his fights tend to be wild. That plays much better as a big dog, not +125/$7900. It’s Winn’s fight to lose. | |
Jose Quinonez | 7100 | Sean O'Malley | Risky | +300 | +870 | Teca is a gritty dude. He fights well beyond his skill. He also makes fights ugly to his advantage. It’s possible O’Malley has some issues after his layoff. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Zhang -185, Magny +157, Winn -135
Favorite Props: Dariush via SUB +225, Emmers ITD +145
Long Shot: Zhang wins in round 1 +425
Live Dogs: Romero, Jerdzejczyk, Magny, Griffin, Hubbard, Meerschaert
Stats & Picks:
Israel Adesanya | vs | Yoel Romero |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 18-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-260 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Weili Zhang | vs | Joanna Jedrzejczyk |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 20-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Beneil Dariush | vs | Drakkar Klose |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 17-4-1 | Record | Record: 11-1-1 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-162 | Vegas Odds | +152 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Neil Magny | vs | Jingliang Li |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 21-8-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+157 | Vegas Odds | -167 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Alex Oliveira | vs | Max Griffin |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 19-8-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Sean O'Malley | vs | Jose Quinonez |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) | |
Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Mark Madsen | vs | Austin Hubbard |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Saparbeg Safarov |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-570 | Vegas Odds | +480 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Gerald Meerschaert | vs | Deron Winn |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 29-12-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Emily Whitmire | vs | Polyana Viana |
$8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
Record: 4-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Giga Chikadze | vs | Jamall Emmers |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+160 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
Danaa Batgerel | vs | Guido Cannetti |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |