We’re finally getting a PPV card after three straight Fight Night’s. It’s a double title fight event to boot. Both are excellent fights and should see some fireworks. As with most PPVs the matchmaking is more even and there’s a large mid-range. Build your base there.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero
9200/7000
-
Stackability: Safe
-260/ +240
+165/+335
Props to Issy for seeking out Romero as his first title defense. It’s a crazy move and an interesting gamble. If he wins there’s no one near the credentials Romero has ready to challenge him. He’s the much better striker and Romero doesn’t seem keen on wrestling much these days. My biggest worry is that Issy gets too flashy at times and Romero could shock him during a moment like that. It’s going to be a tense five rounds. Not very interested in a cash stack.
        
Expensive
Weili Zhang8900Joanna JedrzejczykSafe-185+135Weili is a bully in the ring. She’s stronger and more fierce than most opponents. If Joanna comes with her usual barrage of strikes there will be plenty of opportunities for the hard-hitting Chinese Champion to do damage.
Sean O'Malley9100Jose QuinonezSomewhat-Safe-330-110Making his return after injury and USADA issues, we get a fight that was supposed a while back. Both have improved but O’Malley is just too dynamic. Provided he’s not rusty, that is.
Mark Madsen9000Austin HubbardSomewhat-Safe-215+240Madsen is a bull out there. He looks to wade in with hard overhands, followed up by Olympic caliber wrestling. I do worry some about how predictable he is. A better fighter is going to give him trouble at some point. Hubbard is sort of a master of none, though.
Rodolfo Vieira9300Saparbeg SafarovSomewhat-Safe-570-245Provided he doesn’t get one-punch KO’d this one should end with a Vieira submitting his opponent early.
        
Mid-Range
Beneil Dariush8700Drakkar KloseSafe-200+155Benny is better than most give him credit for. I also think he the worst matchup in the UFC for Klose, who doesn’t have much pace or power. He’s also got some holes in the wrestling game where Dariush excels.
Jamall Emmers8500Giga ChikadzeSomewhat-Safe-170+145Emmers should cruise behind his wrestling here. He’s stunted on us before, though.
Deron Winn8300Gerald MeerschaertModerate-135+350I’m less gunshy since I faded Winn in his last loss. I think he’s a solid play here. His wrestling is definitely good enough to give Meerschaert trouble and he’s not afraid to get into striking exchanges despite reach disadvantages. His ownership should also be low.
Jingliang Li8600Neil MagnyModerate-167+140Li comes to bang and that may be a problem for Magny after he was left unconscious the last time we saw him. He can get out grappled, though. That’s Magny’s strong suit.
Alex Oliveira8400Max GriffinSomewhat-Risky-135+185We probably know which version of Cowboy shows up pretty early. He’d toast Griffin at his best. Wear and tear, plus outside the ring issues, have eroded his skills some. If he’s not on point he loses a sloppy decision.
Danaa Batgerel8200Guido CannettiSomewhat-Risky-120#N/ADanaa is likely durable enough to survive an early onslaught and take over the later rounds.
Guido Cannetti8000Danaa BatgerelSomewhat-Risky+110#N/ACannetti comes out winging bombs, though.
Emily Whitmire8100Polyana VianaSomewhat-Risky+105+415Whitmire got overrated for subbing Alex Albu but might be getting overlooked after Amanda Ribas dusted her last fight. Viana has the credentials but has shown nothing inside the octagon. This could be a buying opportunity.
Polyana Viana8100Emily WhitmireSomewhat-Risky-115+250If her BJJ happens to show up there are likely to be scrambles she can utilize it in. Otherwise, she gets her walking papers.
        
Pay-Downs
Neil Magny7600Jingliang LiModerate+157+600Magny can win this fight if he’s careful on the feet. His reach should help with that. Li also doesn’t have the highest fight IQ. A grappling based decision or possible sub is what I see here.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk7300Weili ZhangModerate+170+825Joanna is a great value for what she bring to the table here. Still, I favor Weili a good bit more. The potential volume for this fight is ridiculous if Joanna’s chin holds up after her tough weight cut making it not only a great cash stack but the rare possible GPP option.
Drakkar Klose7500Beneil DariushSomewhat-Risky+152+435Klose has been improving each fight. I’ll give him that. His style is DK poison, though. Maybe he finds Benny’s chin at some point and surprises me.
Max Griffin7800Alex OliveiraSomewhat-Risky+125+410If Oliviera has one foot out the door Griffin will grind his way to a win. Backable dogs are scarce this card.
Austin Hubbard7200Mark MadsenSomewhat-Risky+195+605There’s a chance Madsen hits the coming speed bump here. Hubbard is a good mixed martial artist in the sense that he can win a three-round fight.
Gerald Meerschaert7900Deron WinnRisky+125+210I’m lower than most on Meershaert here. He’s always inconsistent and his fights tend to be wild. That plays much better as a big dog, not +125/$7900. It’s Winn’s fight to lose.
Jose Quinonez7100Sean O'MalleyRisky+300+870Teca is a gritty dude. He fights well beyond his skill. He also makes fights ugly to his advantage. It’s possible O’Malley has some issues after his layoff.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Zhang -185, Magny +157, Winn -135

Favorite Props: Dariush via SUB +225, Emmers ITD +145

Long Shot: Zhang wins in round 1 +425

Live Dogs: Romero, Jerdzejczyk, Magny, Griffin, Hubbard, Meerschaert

Stats & Picks: 

Israel AdesanyavsYoel Romero
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 18-0-0RecordRecord: 13-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-260Vegas Odds+240
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Weili ZhangvsJoanna Jedrzejczyk
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 20-1-0RecordRecord: 16-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-185Vegas Odds+170
7/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Beneil DariushvsDrakkar Klose
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 17-4-1RecordRecord: 11-1-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-162Vegas Odds+152
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Neil MagnyvsJingliang Li
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 21-8-0RecordRecord: 17-5-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+157Vegas Odds-167
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Alex OliveiravsMax Griffin
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 19-8-1 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 15-7-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-135Vegas Odds+125
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Sean O'MalleyvsJose Quinonez
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 10-0-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
 Knockouts2 KO/TKO (29%)
 Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (43%)
-330Vegas Odds+300
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mark MadsenvsAustin Hubbard
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 9-0-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-215Vegas Odds+195
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Rodolfo VieiravsSaparbeg Safarov
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 6-0-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-570Vegas Odds+480
7/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Gerald MeerschaertvsDeron Winn
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 29-12-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+125Vegas Odds-135
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Emily WhitmirevsPolyana Viana
$8,100DFS Salary$8,100
Record: 4-3-0RecordRecord: 10-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+105Vegas Odds-115
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Giga ChikadzevsJamall Emmers
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 17-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+160Vegas Odds-170
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Danaa BatgerelvsGuido Cannetti
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 6-2-0RecordRecord: 8-5-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-120Vegas Odds+110
4/10Lineup Pool3/10