This card could pass for a regional promotion’s card with the lack of UFC experience on it. That’s not always a bad thing. We get to target the fights with unpredictability in GPPs and see if we can make the most of it. Sadly, Figueiredo missed weight. Benavidez is the only one that can claim the belt. That fight will still be nuts. Aside from the two most expensive fighters, there is no certainty out there.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Joseph Benavidez vs Deiveson Figueiredo | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Safe | #N/A | #N/A | Missed weight aside, these are two of the most exciting fighters in MMA. If Joe B can avoid getting slept early his pace and wrestling should be enough to turn the tides in his favor. Figueirado has the death touch, though. You can't take much of his power and stay standing. I'm leaning Benavidez way but the universe seems bent on denying him his title. Stack it in cash to secure the winner. |
Expensive | Felicia Spencer | 9400 | Zarah Fairn | Safe | #N/A | #N/A | The biggest risk here is that Spencer secures a takedown and submission with no other stats, failing to break 100 points. |
| Grant Dawson | 9300 | Darrick Minner | Safe | #N/A | #N/A | Dawson is getting a career journeyman in Minner who’s been submitted his fair share. It’s the best the UFC could do on short notice. | |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9000 | Ion Cutelaba | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A | The Russian has been impeccable on the feet. His size is troublesome for opponents, too. I expect him to methodically pick apart the wild Moldovian. | |
| Luis Pena | 9200 | Steve Garcia | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A | The UFC found Pena an excellent opponent in Garcia in that he will challenge the frustrating Pena in the exact ways he’s shown deficiencies. This feels like a win or go home spot for Violent Bob Ross. He has the talent to win. The question is what’s between his ears. | |
| Megan Anderson | 9100 | Norma Dumont | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A | I’ll sprinkle in a share or two of Anderson but her size and look get her far more attention than her MMA credentials. It’s a fade until she proves otherwise. | |
Mid-Range | Tom Breese | 8300 | Brendan Allen | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | Breese is the better athlete and a much better striker. He’s had anxiety issues and a couple fights have been pulled. Once he’s in the cage the performance is there, though. I don’t think he’d be back if he weren’t ready to commit to fighting. |
| Jordan Griffin | 8500 | TJ Brown | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A | Griffin gave Dan Ige and Chas Skelly both a decent run for their money. That’s doing him no favors in the matchmaking either. This is finally his chance to show how destructive his violent self can be. | |
| Ismail Naurdiev | 8600 | Sean Brady | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | In a tight fight, I’ll lean slightly toward the longer, more accurate striker in Naurdiev. It’s an exciting match up but could be a modest score. | |
| Aalon Cruz | 8900 | Spike Carlyle | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | This is one of those uncertain spots I mentioned. Include some Cruz as he’s got power but be cautious. | |
| Gabriel Silva | 8400 | Kyler Phillips | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Silva has the BJJ chops to sub anyone. He’s probably at a striking disadvantage and maybe not be able to out-wrestle Philips, however. | |
| Marcin Tybura | 8000 | Serghei Spivac | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Does Tybura have anything left in the tank? I don’t think it’s much. His name value should snare some folks as well. | |
| Serghei Spivac | 8200 | Marcin Tybura | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Spivac has had the polar opposites in two UFC bouts. Walt Harris nuked him in seconds. Then he wrestled Tai Tuivasa into dust. I think there’s opportunities for him to grapple effectively with Tybura’s lack of aggression. He can also swing his hammer when it’s called for. | |
Pay-Downs | Ion Cutelaba | 7200 | Magomed Ankalaev | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Cutelaba will either overwhelm you in the first or die trying. |
| Kyler Phillips | 7800 | Gabriel Silva | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Phillips is a good prospect who’s been developing on the fly. This is a challenging debut for the well-rounded fighter. I like him as a dog play. | |
| Sean Brady | 7600 | Ismail Naurdiev | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Brady is an unknown at this level. He’s a veteran of the regional scene and got very sharp boxing. This is going to be an excellent measuring stick. | |
| Brendan Allen | 7900 | Tom Breese | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Allen is probably a sub or bust play. He’d score well in that but it’s a risky proposition. | |
| Norma Dumont | 7100 | Megan Anderson | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | I won’t pretend to know enough about Dumont to say she’s got great chances at an upset here. I do know Megan Anderson is overrated and a fish out of water on the ground. If Dumont doesn’t stay at the end of her range she’s absolutely live. | |
| Steve Garcia | 7000 | Luis Pena | Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Garcia is at a disadvantage pretty much everywhere here. He’s probably capable of pulling off what Matt Frevola did in out wrestling and out gritting Pena, though. | |
| TJ Brown | 7700 | Jordan Griffin | Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Brown can be a pretty good fighter at times. He can also be a very bad one more often. One with a poor chin to boot. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Griffin -130, Breese, -140, Phillips +100
Favorite Props: Ankalaev ITD +145, Spivac ITD +160
Long Shot: Dumont ITD +390
Live Dogs: Figueiredo, Phillips, Brady, Cutelaba, Dumont, Garcia
Stats & Picks:
| Joseph Benavidez | vs | Deiveson Figueiredo |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 28-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Felicia Spencer | vs | Zarah Fairn |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Ion Cutelaba | vs | Loading... |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | Loading... |
| Record: 15-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | Loading... |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Megan Anderson | vs | Norma Dumont |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Loading... | vs | Darrick Minner |
| Loading... | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record | Record: 24-10-0 | |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| Loading... | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Gabriel Silva | vs | Kyler Phillips |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brendan Allen | vs | Tom Breese |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Marcin Tybura | vs | Serghei Spivac |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Luis Pena | vs | Steve Garcia |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jordan Griffin | vs | TJ Brown |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Aalon Cruz | vs | Spike Carlyle |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sean Brady | vs | Ismail Naurdiev |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |