This PPV card feels more like a Fight Night card outside of the two belts on the line. That means good things for us DFS players. Things are more unpredictable than usual and variance is always good for risk-takers. The Champions defending their titles are fairly safe bets to retain them but maybe not to score that well on DK unless they surprise with an early finish.
**UPDATE** --> Antonio Arroyo was found unconscious from the weight cut and is out of his fight. James Krause is stepping in to fight in his place.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown |
Main Event | The watch has begun on Jon Jones' title reign coming to an end. He's racked up a lot of miles on his body. Reyes is fresh, young, and hungry. The fight is lined closer than any recent Jones fight. I don't think Reyes gets it done but belts change hands in MMA. Jones has been the exception. I think he loses sometime in the next year. |
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Expensive | Valentina Shevchenko | 9500 | Katlyn Chookagian | Safe | -855 | +170 | |
Derrick Lewis | 9000 | Ilir Latifi | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | -140 | Latifi has gotten more mileage from a mediocre MMA resume than anyone. He's the shortest HW in a long time. Lewis is a legit HW athlete with tons of power. I don't see any way a shopworn Latifi sees the final bell. |
Andrea Lee | 9200 | Lauren Murphy | Somewhat-Safe | -305 | +435 | |
Alex Morono | 9100 | Khaos Williams | Somewhat-Safe | -330 | +135 | Morono has made improvements since moving camps and has a rounded skill set. He could land some takedowns, which will be necessary at the price. |
Austin Lingo | 8900 | Youssef Zalal | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +150 | |
| | | | | | | |
Mid-Range | Miles Johns | 8600 | Mario Bautista | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | |
Mirsad Bektic | 8300 | Dan Ige | Moderate | -120 | +420 | Giles has the tools to win this fight but maybe not the fight IQ. If he loses here it's back to the regional scene. |
Juan Adams | 8800 | Justin Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | -230 | -147 | Adams' size makes him trouble for most folks. That tends to stop being the case in the UFC and he's only 1-2 in the promotion. If he manages to land a takedown he's likely to dominate the round. |
Andre Ewell | 8400 | Jonathan Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +575 | Ewell has a good reach for the division and is sharp on the outside. He gets into trouble once the fight moves past that stage. Martinez also works from the outside, though. |
Domingo Pilarte | 8200 | Journey Newson | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +300 | |
Journey Newson | 8000 | Domingo Pilarte | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +375 | |
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Pay-Downs | Mario Bautista | 7600 | Miles Johns | Moderate | +117 | +430 | Bautista likes to throw with aggression. He'll have to weather Johns' early strength. If he makes the second round his volume could take over the fight. |
Dan Ige | 7900 | Mirsad Bektic | Moderate | +110 | +190 | Ige is a tough out for anyone, even someone as gifted as Bektic. He'll make the fight ugly and grind opponents out. That's a problem for the sometimes soft Bektic. |
Justin Tafa | 7400 | Juan Adams | Moderate | +210 | +310 | |
Lauren Murphy | 7000 | Andrea Lee | Moderate | +275 | +800 | |
Antonio Arroyo | 7700 | Trevin Giles | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | |
Jonathan Martinez | 7800 | Andre Ewell | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +310 | |
Youssef Zalal | 7000 | Austin Lingo | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +285 | Zalal is tough, having never been finished. If Lingo can't get the early KO he's accustomed to it could be waters he's not ready to tread. |
Khaos Williams | 7100 | Alex Morono | Somewhat-Risky | +300 | +725 | |
Katlyn Chookagian | 6700 | Valentina Shevchenko | Risky | +670 | +150 | |
(Sample lineup)Cash Plays:
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Lewis -205, Jones -450, Ige +110
Favorite Props: Tafa ITD +310, Lingo ITD +150, Johns/Bautista OVER 2.5 rounds -250
Live Dogs: Tafa, Ige, Bautista, Martinez, Arroyo, Newson, Murphy
Stats & Picks:
Jon Jones | vs | Dominick Reyes |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 25-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
10 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | |
Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Katlyn Chookagian |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (28%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) |
-840 | Vegas Odds | +660 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | |
Juan Adams | vs | Justin Tafa |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 3-1-0 |
2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (100%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| | |
Mirsad Bektic | vs | Dan Ige |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
3 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | |
Derrick Lewis | vs | Ilir Latifi |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 22-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC) |
3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 18 KO/TKO (82%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +188 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | |
Trevin Giles | vs | Antonio Arroyo |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | |
Lauren Murphy | vs | Andrea Lee |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+275 | Vegas Odds | -305 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | |
Alex Morono | vs | Khaos Williams |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 17-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | |
Miles Johns | vs | Mario Bautista |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | |
Domingo Pilarte | vs | Journey Newson |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | |
Andre Ewell | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | |
Austin Lingo | vs | Youssef Zalal |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |