This PPV card feels more like a Fight Night card outside of the two belts on the line. That means good things for us DFS players. Things are more unpredictable than usual and variance is always good for risk-takers. The Champions defending their titles are fairly safe bets to retain them but maybe not to score that well on DK unless they surprise with an early finish.

**UPDATE** --> Antonio Arroyo was found unconscious from the weight cut and is out of his fight. James Krause is stepping in to fight in his place.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
The watch has begun on Jon Jones' title reign coming to an end. He's racked up a lot of miles on his body. Reyes is fresh, young, and hungry. The fight is lined closer than any recent Jones fight. I don't think Reyes gets it done but belts change hands in MMA. Jones has been the exception. I think he loses sometime in the next year.
        
Expensive
Valentina Shevchenko9500Katlyn ChookagianSafe-855+170 
Derrick Lewis9000Ilir LatifiSomewhat-Safe-215-140Latifi has gotten more mileage from a mediocre MMA resume than anyone. He's the shortest HW in a long time. Lewis is a legit HW athlete with tons of power. I don't see any way a shopworn Latifi sees the final bell.
Andrea Lee9200Lauren MurphySomewhat-Safe-305+435 
Alex Morono9100Khaos WilliamsSomewhat-Safe-330+135Morono has made improvements since moving camps and has a rounded skill set. He could land some takedowns, which will be necessary at the price.
Austin Lingo8900Youssef ZalalSomewhat-Safe-200+150 
        
Mid-Range
Miles Johns8600Mario BautistaSomewhat-Safe-200+155 
Mirsad Bektic8300Dan IgeModerate-120+420Giles has the tools to win this fight but maybe not the fight IQ. If he loses here it's back to the regional scene.
Juan Adams8800Justin TafaSomewhat-Risky-230-147Adams' size makes him trouble for most folks. That tends to stop being the case in the UFC and he's only 1-2 in the promotion. If he manages to land a takedown he's likely to dominate the round.
Andre Ewell8400Jonathan MartinezSomewhat-Risky-120+575Ewell has a good reach for the division and is sharp on the outside. He gets into trouble once the fight moves past that stage. Martinez also works from the outside, though.
Domingo Pilarte8200Journey NewsonSomewhat-Risky-120+300 
Journey Newson8000Domingo PilarteSomewhat-Risky+110+375 
        
Pay-Downs
Mario Bautista7600Miles JohnsModerate+117+430Bautista likes to throw with aggression. He'll have to weather Johns' early strength. If he makes the second round his volume could take over the fight.
Dan Ige7900Mirsad BekticModerate+110+190Ige is a tough out for anyone, even someone as gifted as Bektic. He'll make the fight ugly and grind opponents out. That's a problem for the sometimes soft Bektic.
Justin Tafa7400Juan AdamsModerate+210+310 
Lauren Murphy7000Andrea LeeModerate+275+800 
Antonio Arroyo7700Trevin GilesSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A 
Jonathan Martinez7800Andre EwellSomewhat-Risky+110+310 
Youssef Zalal7000Austin LingoSomewhat-Risky+185+285Zalal is tough, having never been finished. If Lingo can't get the early KO he's accustomed to it could be waters he's not ready to tread.
Khaos Williams7100Alex MoronoSomewhat-Risky+300+725 
Katlyn Chookagian6700Valentina ShevchenkoRisky+670+150 


(Sample lineup)Cash Plays: 

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Lewis -205, Jones -450, Ige +110

Favorite Props: Tafa ITD +310, Lingo ITD +150, Johns/Bautista OVER 2.5 rounds -250 

Live Dogs: Tafa, Ige, Bautista, Martinez, Arroyo, Newson, Murphy

Stats & Picks:

Jon JonesvsDominick Reyes
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 25-1-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 12-0-0
10 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (58%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (24%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-450Vegas Odds+400
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Valentina ShevchenkovsKatlyn Chookagian
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 18-3-0RecordRecord: 13-2-0
7 KO/TKO (58%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (28%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)
-840Vegas Odds+660
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Juan AdamsvsJustin Tafa
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 5-2-0RecordRecord: 3-1-0
2 KO/TKO (15%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (100%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-230Vegas Odds+210
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Mirsad BekticvsDan Ige
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 12-2-0
3 KO/TKO (100%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (46%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
-120Vegas Odds+110
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Derrick LewisvsIlir Latifi
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 22-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 15-7-0 (1 NC)
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts18 KO/TKO (82%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (42%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-205Vegas Odds+188
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Trevin GilesvsAntonio Arroyo
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
6 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
-135Vegas Odds+125
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Lauren MurphyvsAndrea Lee
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (73%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+275Vegas Odds-305
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Alex MoronovsKhaos Williams
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 17-5-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-1-0
2 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (29%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (35%)
-330Vegas Odds+300
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Miles JohnsvsMario Bautista
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 10-0-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (20%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
-130Vegas Odds+120
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Domingo PilartevsJourney Newson
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
2 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (43%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Andre EwellvsJonathan Martinez
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 15-6-0RecordRecord: 11-2-0
3 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (47%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Austin LingovsYoussef Zalal
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0
6 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (43%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
-210Vegas Odds+190
6/10Lineup Pool3/10