The UFC is back from its winter hibernation with an event more rare than Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow: a Conor McGregor fight. He’ll meet fan-favorite Cowboy Cerrone in the night’s main event. The theme of the card is questions to be answered. Almost every fight is going to give us information about an up and coming fighter or how much some fighters have left heading into their twilight. Like most PPV cards, every matchup is close despite the odds. That means it’s time to leverage ownership in GPPs and be cautious in cash contests.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown |
Main Event | This fight goes down one of two ways. Conor is still near his peak and clips Cowboy early leading to a stoppage. If Conor isn't close to the fighter he was the door is open for Cowboy. Cerrone is tough, if occasionally chinny. Should he get through the first two rounds he can outwork Conor. A tired Conor also quits when having to defend a submission. I'm limiting my McGregor shares sharply, fading the fight some, and mixing in a little Cerrone. I don't see it as stackable, either. |
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Expensive | Maycee Barber | 9500 | Roxanne Modafferi | Safe | -900 | -237 | |
Nasrat Haqparast | 9300 | Drew Dober | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | +220 | |
Diego Ferreira | 9000 | Anthony Pettis | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A | Ferreira shouldn't struggle with Pettis unless he gets caught by one of the laters hailmaries. The ownership on Diego will be elevated after losing Grant Dawson at a similar price. He's still a good bet to get a win ITD. |
Holly Holm | 8900 | Raquel Pennington | Somewhat-Safe | -125 | +565 | Holm's a great bet but a poor DK play. She's all cage control and spacing. Good for fighting, bad for action. |
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Mid-Range | Sodiq Yusuff | 8500 | Andre Fili | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | Super Sodiq has some of the most devastating power in the division. Fili is a stiff test but one I think Sodiq is ready for. The price is nice for the shot at knockdowns/knockout. |
Aleksa Camur | 8800 | Justin Ledet | Somewhat-Safe | -115 | +170 | The slight line on Camur is an indication of how raw he is in MMA at 5-0. Ledet could give him some trouble as the vet but Ledet has mostly been a punching bag in the Octagon. Camur has the striking to continue that trend. |
Maurice Greene | 8400 | Aleksei Oleinik | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +100 | |
Ode Osbourne | 8600 | Brian Kelleher | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +155 | |
Askar Askarov | 8700 | Tim Elliott | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +168 | Mazo had a disastrous UFC debut but whitewashed Shana Dobson in her follow up effort. I see that continuing now that she's settled in to the UFC ranks. A volume win or KO is sneaky good at $8K. |
JJ Aldrich | 8200 | Sabina Mazo | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +550 | Aldrich is a veteran, though. She's no easy out. The problem is that most of her wins have come against the bottom of the division. We'll find out where Mazo stands. |
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Pay-Downs | Tim Elliott | 7500 | Askar Askarov | Moderate | +125 | +545 | We don't know where Tim Elliott's fight game is at these days. A knee injury kept him sidelined a long time and he returned against the very tough Dieveson Figueiredo and lost. I guess that shows confidence. Peak Elliott gobbles up Askarov. This version is live as long as he keeps his neck safe. |
Aleksei Oleinik | 7800 | Maurice Greene | Moderate | +110 | +135 | |
Andre Fili | 7700 | Sodiq Yusuff | Moderate | +125 | +320 | Fili is better at winning fights than performing. He's well rounded and has plenty of tricks as a UFC vet. There's a decent chance he can win a decision if he can stay upright. |
Drew Dober | 6900 | Nasrat Haqparast | Moderate | +275 | +460 | Dober can throw down and probably will here. He always has a punchers chance and probably racks up at least two rounds of work at a low price. |
Alexa Grasso | 7900 | Claudia Gadelha | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +500 | Grasso is coming on as a fighter despite her last loss. Gadelha has gotten away from her wrestling roots and might try to strike with the much better boxer. |
Brian Kelleher | 7600 | Ode Osbourne | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +220 | |
Anthony Pettis | 7200 | Diego Ferreira | Risky | +215 | +320 | |
Raquel Pennington | 7300 | Holly Holm | Risky | #N/A | #N/A | There's a small chance Holm is at the end of the road at 38. Rocky can grind her way to a win if Holly isn't as sharp as she usually is. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Ferreira -230, Camur -115, Yusuff -150
Favorite Props: Holly Holm via DEC +115, Barber via KO -195, Oleinik ITD +135 (or via KO +715)
Live Dogs: Elliott, Cerrone, Oleinik, Fili, Askarov, Dober, Kelleher
Note: Grasso came in five pounds over the weight limit and his fight has been cancelled.
Stats & Picks:
Conor McGregor | vs | Donald Cerrone |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 21-4-0 | Record | Record: 36-13-0 (1 NC) |
18 KO/TKO (86%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (28%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
-340 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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Holly Holm | vs | Raquel Pennington |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-0 |
10 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (67%) |
17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
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Aleksei Oleinik | vs | Maurice Greene |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 57-13-1 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
1 KO/TKO (10%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (14%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 45 SUBMISSIONS (79%) |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Claudia Gadelha | vs | Alexa Grasso |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (12%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
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Anthony Pettis | vs | Diego Ferreira |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (50%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (32%) |
+190 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
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Roxanne Modafferi | vs | Maycee Barber |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 23-17-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (17%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
+600 | Vegas Odds | -900 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 9/10 |
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Andre Fili | vs | Sodiq Yusuff |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (45%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
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Tim Elliott | vs | Askar Askarov |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 16-9-1 | Record | Record: 10-0-1 |
6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (20%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Drew Dober | vs | Nasrat Haqparast |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (38%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
+275 | Vegas Odds | -335 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
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Aleksa Camur | vs | Justin Ledet |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 (1 NC) |
9 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (100%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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Brian Kelleher | vs | Ode Osbourne |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 19-10-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 (1 NC) |
2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Sabina Mazo | vs | JJ Aldrich |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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#N/A | vs | #N/A |
#N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record | |
2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |