The UFC is back from its winter hibernation with an event more rare than Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow: a Conor McGregor fight. He’ll meet fan-favorite Cowboy Cerrone in the night’s main event. The theme of the card is questions to be answered. Almost every fight is going to give us information about an up and coming fighter or how much some fighters have left heading into their twilight. Like most PPV cards, every matchup is close despite the odds. That means it’s time to leverage ownership in GPPs and be cautious in cash contests.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
This fight goes down one of two ways. Conor is still near his peak and clips Cowboy early leading to a stoppage. If Conor isn't close to the fighter he was the door is open for Cowboy. Cerrone is tough, if occasionally chinny. Should he get through the first two rounds he can outwork Conor. A tired Conor also quits when having to defend a submission. I'm limiting my McGregor shares sharply, fading the fight some, and mixing in a little Cerrone. I don't see it as stackable, either.
        
Expensive
Maycee Barber9500Roxanne ModafferiSafe-900-237 
Nasrat Haqparast9300Drew DoberSomewhat-Safe-335+220 
Diego Ferreira9000Anthony PettisSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/AFerreira shouldn't struggle with Pettis unless he gets caught by one of the laters hailmaries. The ownership on Diego will be elevated after losing Grant Dawson at a similar price. He's still a good bet to get a win ITD.
Holly Holm8900Raquel PenningtonSomewhat-Safe-125+565Holm's a great bet but a poor DK play. She's all cage control and spacing. Good for fighting, bad for action.
        
Mid-Range
Sodiq Yusuff8500Andre FiliSomewhat-Safe-200+155Super Sodiq has some of the most devastating power in the division. Fili is a stiff test but one I think Sodiq is ready for. The price is nice for the shot at knockdowns/knockout.
Aleksa Camur8800Justin LedetSomewhat-Safe-115+170The slight line on Camur is an indication of how raw he is in MMA at 5-0. Ledet could give him some trouble as the vet but Ledet has mostly been a punching bag in the Octagon. Camur has the striking to continue that trend.
Maurice Greene8400Aleksei OleinikSomewhat-Risky-130+100 
Ode Osbourne8600Brian KelleherSomewhat-Risky-135+155 
Askar Askarov8700Tim ElliottSomewhat-Risky-145+168Mazo had a disastrous UFC debut but whitewashed Shana Dobson in her follow up effort. I see that continuing now that she's settled in to the UFC ranks. A volume win or KO is sneaky good at $8K.
JJ Aldrich8200Sabina MazoSomewhat-Risky-105+550Aldrich is a veteran, though. She's no easy out. The problem is that most of her wins have come against the bottom of the division. We'll find out where Mazo stands.
        
Pay-Downs
Tim Elliott7500Askar AskarovModerate+125+545We don't know where Tim Elliott's fight game is at these days. A knee injury kept him sidelined a long time and he returned against the very tough Dieveson Figueiredo and lost. I guess that shows confidence. Peak Elliott gobbles up Askarov. This version is live as long as he keeps his neck safe.
Aleksei Oleinik7800Maurice GreeneModerate+110+135 
Andre Fili7700Sodiq YusuffModerate+125+320Fili is better at winning fights than performing. He's well rounded and has plenty of tricks as a UFC vet. There's a decent chance he can win a decision if he can stay upright.
Drew Dober6900Nasrat HaqparastModerate+275+460Dober can throw down and probably will here. He always has a punchers chance and probably racks up at least two rounds of work at a low price.
Alexa Grasso7900Claudia GadelhaSomewhat-Risky+110+500Grasso is coming on as a fighter despite her last loss. Gadelha has gotten away from her wrestling roots and might try to strike with the much better boxer.
Brian Kelleher7600Ode OsbourneSomewhat-Risky+125+220 
Anthony Pettis7200Diego FerreiraRisky+215+320 
Raquel Pennington7300Holly HolmRisky#N/A#N/AThere's a small chance Holm is at the end of the road at 38. Rocky can grind her way to a win if Holly isn't as sharp as she usually is.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Ferreira -230, Camur -115, Yusuff -150

Favorite Props: Holly Holm via DEC +115, Barber via KO -195, Oleinik ITD +135 (or via KO +715)

Live Dogs: Elliott, Cerrone, Oleinik, Fili, Askarov, Dober, Kelleher

 

Note: Grasso came in five pounds over the weight limit and his fight has been cancelled. 

 

Stats & Picks:

Conor McGregorvsDonald Cerrone
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 21-4-0RecordRecord: 36-13-0 (1 NC)
18 KO/TKO (86%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (28%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs17 SUBMISSIONS (47%)
-340Vegas Odds+280
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Holly HolmvsRaquel Pennington
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 12-5-0RecordRecord: 10-8-0
10 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (67%)
17 SUBMISSIONS (47%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-135Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Aleksei OleinikvsMaurice Greene
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 57-13-1RecordRecord: 8-4-0
1 KO/TKO (10%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (14%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs45 SUBMISSIONS (79%)
+110Vegas Odds-130
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Claudia GadelhavsAlexa Grasso
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (12%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Anthony PettisvsDiego Ferreira
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 22-9-0RecordRecord: 16-2-0
4 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts11 KO/TKO (50%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (32%)
+190Vegas Odds-230
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Roxanne ModafferivsMaycee Barber
$6,700DFS Salary$9,500
Record: 23-17-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0
3 KO/TKO (19%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (17%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (22%)
+600Vegas Odds-900
1/10Lineup Pool9/10
   
Andre FilivsSodiq Yusuff
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 20-6-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
5 KO/TKO (63%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (45%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (15%)
+120Vegas Odds-130
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Tim ElliottvsAskar Askarov
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 16-9-1RecordRecord: 10-0-1
6 KO/TKO (60%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (20%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
+125Vegas Odds-145
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Drew DobervsNasrat Haqparast
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-2-0
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (38%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (70%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
+275Vegas Odds-335
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Aleksa CamurvsJustin Ledet
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 5-0-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0 (1 NC)
9 KO/TKO (82%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (100%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Brian KellehervsOde Osbourne
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 19-10-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0 (1 NC)
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (37%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (42%)
+125Vegas Odds-145
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Sabina MazovsJJ Aldrich
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 8-3-0
3 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (29%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
#N/Avs#N/A
#N/ADFS Salary#N/A
 Record 
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
3/10Lineup Pool5/10