Welcome back fight fans and grinders. I hope this two-week layoff has left you as thirsty to watch someone get punched in the face as it has myself. UFC DC has more live dogs than we’re used to on a Fight Night card so that should be fun. There are heavyweights in action along with other hard hitters so some KOs are likely. Let’s dig in.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
8300/7900
-
Stackability: Safe
-105/ -105
+125/+110
Old meets new in this heavyweight clash. Jair has that one punch sleeping power and we've seen Overeem take his share of canvas naps. It won't be as easy as his prior fights, however. Reem is one of the best at utilizing a gameplan based on keeping his chin unchecked. My take is that approach works for a round or two but eventually Jair gets something home and ends it spectacularly. There's also a good chance we find out if Rozenstruik has improved his ground game. That make Overeem live for a submission, too.
        
Expensive
Makhmud Muradov9400Trevor SmithSafe-410+140A bit of a set up spot for the Mayweather client. Muradov's showed he's not taking things lightly in the past, though. Good output with plus power make him a justified favorite.
Tim Means9000Thiago AlvesSomewhat-Safe-255+140I'd feel better about Means if he weren't coming off of a broken leg suffered via KO. Still, the Dirtybird will get to do what he does best and throw with volume at a fairly stationary Alves.
Joe Solecki9300Matt WimanSomewhat-Safe-330+175I can copy paste the breakdown for every Wiman opponent. He was good but an enigma in his best days. They are well past. I just can't see him finding any of that old magic. Solacki has the power to make him re-retire.
Billy Quarantillo9200Jacob KilburnModerate-310+115In a meeting of newcomers, it's not wise to spend up. It should be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth striking, though. You may need the winner to hit in GPPs.
Virna Jandiroba9100Mallory MartinModerate-280+265Virna is a good wreslter without all that much explosiveness. She likely grinds out a win here. That's a tough sell at 9100. Her BJJ is plus so it's possible she ends things ITD.
        
Mid-Range
Song Yadong8900Cody StamannSomewhat-Safe-200+155This is Song's toughest test to date. He has the tools, and the power, to get it done. I'd be more comfortable at a better price but he is a deserving favorite. Without the KO he may bust on DK, though.
Marina Rodriguez8400Cynthia CalvilloSomewhat-Safe-125+375Length and high output are Marina's calling cards. Those can take you pretty far in women's MMA, as Joanna has shown. This line would be bigger if Rodriguez were a more well known name so it's a nice spot. She just needs to keep her butt off the mat.
Aspen Ladd8700Yana KunitskayaModerate-150+220Ladd generally prospers from being more physical than her opponent. She's hit the point where her competition won't be as far away from her athleticism, however. She'll need to have tightened up her striking game to trade with Yana.
Rob Font8500Ricky SimonModerate-135+260Font's calling card is a big right hand. Simon ran into trouble when pressed in the Faber fight. This one comes down to who can be the more aggresive man.
Ben Rothwell8600Stefan StruveModerate-140+195The other Big Ben is looking to right the ship after his most recent UFC return. He's older, slower, and in worse shape, so that's a challenge. He'll always have great power and Struve has one of the worst cases of tall-man defense we've ever seen. A KO at 8600 works even at low volume.
Bryce Mitchell8000Matt SaylesSomewhat-Risky+105+340Mitchell is gritty as hell and has some slick jiu-jitsu. If he can stay out of trouble on the feet he's the better bet for me.
Matt Sayles8200Bryce MitchellSomewhat-Risky-115+325I was more interested in Sayles before missing weight. In what shapes up to be a dog fight you have to worry about his gas tank now. He does have the much crisper striking albeit with wholes in his defensive wrestling.
   Matt Sayles    
Pay-Downs
Cody Stamann7300Song YadongModerate+170+620Stamann has that warrior spirit, outperforming his talents regularly. He'll need it against one of China's best prospects. If he leans on wrestling it's a potentially big score at the price.
Ricky Simon7700Rob FontModerate+125+575The shine is off of Ricky after dropping a fight to the older Urijiah Faber. His skill set is still the same and his tenacity is likely there as well. He'll always be a better underdog.
Stefan Struve7600Ben RothwellSomewhat-Risky+120+250I've quit guessing at the outcome of Struve fights. This feels like a winnable fight for him which likely means he gets spectacularly knocked out.
Yana Kunitskaya7500Aspen LaddSomewhat-Risky+140+600It's not a reach to say Yana could outstrike Ladd the way prior opponents have. Ladd's tough weight cut does not help her chin.
Cynthia Calvillo7800Marina RodriguezSomewhat-Risky+115+325Calvillo has shown wrestling chops and Marina struggled to get off the mat big time in prior fights. She came back because she wasn't finished but that's never a given when another fighter is on top of you.
Jacob Kilburn7000Billy QuarantilloRisky+280+515When two unknown's get into a slugfest the outcome if far from predicatable. A win at $7K breaks the slate.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Rodriguez -125, Kunitskaya +140, Simon +130

Favorite Props: Mitchell ITD +340, Rozenstruik ITD +110, Jandiroba ITD +265

Live Dogs: Rozenstruik, Struve, Kumitskaya, Simon, Mitchell

 

Stats & Picks:

Alistair OvereemvsJairzinho Rozenstruik
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 45-17-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-0-0
23 KO/TKO (51%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (89%)
17 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-105Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Marina RodriguezvsCynthia Calvillo
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 12-0-1RecordRecord: 8-1-0
5 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Stefan StruvevsBen Rothwell
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 33-11-0RecordRecord: 36-12-0
8 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts27 KO/TKO (75%)
18 SUBMISSIONS (62%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Aspen LaddvsYana Kunitskaya
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0 (1 NC)
5 KO/TKO (63%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (58%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)
-150Vegas Odds+140
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Cody StamannvsSong Yadong
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 18-2-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0 (1 NC)
6 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (36%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (21%)
+170Vegas Odds-200
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Rob FontvsRicky Simon
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 16-4-0RecordRecord: 15-2-0
7 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (33%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-135Vegas Odds+125
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Thiago AlvesvsTim Means
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 28-14-0RecordRecord: 28-11-1 (1 NC)
13 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (68%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (14%)
+235Vegas Odds-255
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Billy QuarantillovsJacob Kilburn
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 12-2-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
5 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (50%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
-310Vegas Odds+280
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Bryce MitchellvsMatt Sayles
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 11-1-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (75%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (73%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
+105Vegas Odds-115
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Joe SoleckivsMatt Wiman
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 16-8-0
1 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (25%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (75%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
-330Vegas Odds+300
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Virna JandirobavsMallory Martin
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 14-1-0RecordRecord: 6-2-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (33%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (79%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-280Vegas Odds+240
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Makhmud MuradovvsTrevor Smith
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 23-6-0RecordRecord: 15-9-0
15 KO/TKO (65%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (7%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (60%)
-410Vegas Odds+365
7/10Lineup Pool2/10