The UFC is making another stop in Brazil this weekend. That means plenty of Brazilians on the card and some possibly fishy judging. Look for safer bets and finishers. One fight to note is the late replacement of Veronica Macedo by Isabela de Padua. Ariane Lipski is priced as a dog that will be a big favorite, assuming DraftKings keeps her in the pool.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Jan Blachowicz vs Jacare Souza | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Safe | -170/ +150 | +123/+225 | This main event boils down to two things for me. Blachowicz isn't really a threat to finish Souza so his path to victory is a five round grind with better precision and grappling control. Souza is past his prime but still dangerous with chopping haymakers and lethal BJJ if the opportunity presents itself. It will be interesting to see what the move up to 205 does for Jacare. The safer bet is Jan, though he has cracked against a few select opponents. It's a usable stack but not a must in cash. |
Expensive | Mauricio Rua | 9300 | Paul Craig | Safe | -280 | -145 | Shogun gets late replacement Paul Craig since no one else was willing to take the fight in Brazil. He should carve Craig up on the feet and just needs to avoid the Scots signature hailmary triangle. |
Charles Oliveira | 9400 | Jared Gordon | Somewhat-Safe | -420 | -212 | "Do Bronx" has the full tool set: lethal BJJ, powerful and smooth striking, and good reach. He's had a nice run against subpar competition. Gordon has his own issues but heart isn't one of them. We've seen Oliviera quit before. | |
Ricardo Ramos | 9200 | Eduardo Garagorri | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | +160 | Ramos is still a good prospect. He's got slick striking and good jiu-jitsu. Garagorri fights hard but probably has too much to overcome here. | |
James Krause | 9000 | Sergio Moraes | Moderate | -190 | +222 | Krause is the better striker and smarter fighter. Moraes tends to oblidge his opponent on the feet. We saw how that tends to work out when Warley Alves dismantled him last fight. | |
Douglas Silva de Andrade | 9100 | Renan Barao | Moderate | -260 | +157 | Andrade isn't the most consistent fighter but he shows up to bang. That's likely trouble for Barao if the powerful Andrade lands. | |
Mid-Range | Warlley Alves | 8300 | Randy Brown | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +200 | We got a focused and well-conditioner Alves last time out, and that is a scary thing. Assuming that continues he's in a pretty good spot at a great price. Brown is being overestimated after dismantling an already shot Bryan Barberena. |
Francisco Trinaldo | 8400 | Bobby Green | Somewhat-Safe | -140 | +378 | Old man Trinaldo can't seem to catch a break. He doesn't have the most impressive style for judges but is tough as nails and hits like a mule. Green is willing to trade so Trinaldo should find a home for his kickboxing. | |
Markus Perez | 8600 | Wellington Turman | Moderate | -120 | +331 | I'm not a big fan of Perez's wildman routine. It's stale. Still, he can pull off the occasional submission. | |
Tracy Cortez | 8800 | Isabela De Padua | Moderate | -210 | +475 | The UFC debutant missed weight, as did her opponent. All's even on that front. Cortez's wrestling is probably too much for the very average Melo. | |
Antonio Arroyo | 8000 | Andre Muniz | Moderate | +100 | +234 | Getting the closest lined fight right usually pays big. | |
Andre Muniz | 8200 | Antonio Arroyo | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +160 | I like Muniz as the better striker in a clash of grapplers. | |
Pay-Downs | Wellington Turman | 7600 | Markus Perez | Moderate | +100 | +575 | Turman got a raw deal in his debut against Karl Roberson. That he was so solid against a quality guy his first time out is telling. |
Ariane Lipski | 7700 | Isabela De Padua | Moderate | -170 | +560 | We don't have a line on this fight with de Padua coming as a 24-hour replacement. I don't have much info on her other than rough numbers. She seems to be an average local fighter, which were the types of fighter Lipski had thrived on. | |
Sergio Moraes | 7200 | James Krause | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +409 | "Panther" has given out his share of lessons on the octagon mat. He just doesn't look to get the fight there at all. His BJJ is world-class so it's a threat in any fight. | |
Eduardo Garagorri | 7000 | Ricardo Ramos | Somewhat-Risky | +300 | +775 | Ramos is a bit flashy and that kind of fighter can quit if they run out tricks. If Garagorri is still there late in this fight he could turn the tide. | |
Bobby Green | 7800 | Francisco Trinaldo | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +565 | Bobby Green is the only fighter with worse luck than Trinaldo. One of them has to win. Green's a good boxer but takes too much damage to be a reliable bet. Judge's decisions can get weird in Brazil, though. | |
Randy Brown | 7900 | Warlley Alves | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +345 | Brown is a much better athlete than MMA fighter. If he continues his recent progression, or Alves no-shows, Brown can use his size to make it a tough night for Alves. | |
Jared Gordon | 6800 | Charles Oliveira | Risky | +335 | +910 | Gordon would have to grit his way to a win here. His pace is hard for most to keep up with. Should Oliviera not be sharp he could get overwhelmed. | |
Renan Barao | 7100 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | Risky | +220 | +650 | Barao has been able to win one round cleary in most of his recent losses. If he can figure out how to win a second one he wins the fight. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Alves -130, Blachowicz -170, Gordon +335
Favorite Props: Turman via DEC +155, de Andrade ITD +157
Live Dogs: Turman, Moraes, Garagorri, Gordon, Brown
Stats & Picks:
Jan Blachowicz | vs | Jacare Souza |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 24-8-0 | Record | Record: 26-7-0 (1 NC) |
6 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (31%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 14 SUBMISSIONS (54%) |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Mauricio Rua | vs | Paul Craig |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 26-11-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
21 KO/TKO (81%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (92%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Charles Oliveira | vs | Jared Gordon |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 27-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (40%) |
18 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-420 | Vegas Odds | +335 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Antonio Arroyo | vs | Andre Muniz |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-0 |
4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (22%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 12 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Markus Perez | vs | Wellington Turman |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Sergio Moraes | vs | James Krause |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 14-6-1 | Record | Record: 25-8-0 |
1 KO/TKO (7%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (27%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 14 SUBMISSIONS (54%) |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Ricardo Ramos | vs | Eduardo Garagorri |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Bobby Green |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 24-9-1 |
8 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (33%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Warlley Alves | vs | Randy Brown |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Douglas Silva de Andrade | vs | Renan Barao |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 25-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 36-8-0 (1 NC) |
19 KO/TKO (76%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (24%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 15 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
-260 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Ariane Lipski | vs | Isabela De Padua |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-170 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Vanessa Melo | vs | Tracy Cortez |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |