The UFC is making another stop in Brazil this weekend. That means plenty of Brazilians on the card and some possibly fishy judging. Look for safer bets and finishers. One fight to note is the late replacement of Veronica Macedo by Isabela de Padua. Ariane Lipski is priced as a dog that will be a big favorite, assuming DraftKings keeps her in the pool.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Jan Blachowicz vs Jacare Souza
8900/7300
-
Stackability: Safe
-170/ +150
+123/+225
This main event boils down to two things for me. Blachowicz isn't really a threat to finish Souza so his path to victory is a five round grind with better precision and grappling control. Souza is past his prime but still dangerous with chopping haymakers and lethal BJJ if the opportunity presents itself. It will be interesting to see what the move up to 205 does for Jacare. The safer bet is Jan, though he has cracked against a few select opponents. It's a usable stack but not a must in cash.
        
Expensive
Mauricio Rua9300Paul CraigSafe-280-145Shogun gets late replacement Paul Craig since no one else was willing to take the fight in Brazil. He should carve Craig up on the feet and just needs to avoid the Scots signature hailmary triangle.
Charles Oliveira9400Jared GordonSomewhat-Safe-420-212"Do Bronx" has the full tool set: lethal BJJ, powerful and smooth striking, and good reach. He's had a nice run against subpar competition. Gordon has his own issues but heart isn't one of them. We've seen Oliviera quit before.
Ricardo Ramos9200Eduardo GaragorriSomewhat-Safe-360+160Ramos is still a good prospect. He's got slick striking and good jiu-jitsu. Garagorri fights hard but probably has too much to overcome here.
James Krause9000Sergio MoraesModerate-190+222Krause is the better striker and smarter fighter. Moraes tends to oblidge his opponent on the feet. We saw how that tends to work out when Warley Alves dismantled him last fight.
Douglas Silva de Andrade9100Renan BaraoModerate-260+157Andrade isn't the most consistent fighter but he shows up to bang. That's likely trouble for Barao if the powerful Andrade lands.
        
Mid-Range
Warlley Alves8300Randy BrownSomewhat-Safe-130+200We got a focused and well-conditioner Alves last time out, and that is a scary thing. Assuming that continues he's in a pretty good spot at a great price. Brown is being overestimated after dismantling an already shot Bryan Barberena.
Francisco Trinaldo8400Bobby GreenSomewhat-Safe-140+378Old man Trinaldo can't seem to catch a break. He doesn't have the most impressive style for judges but is tough as nails and hits like a mule. Green is willing to trade so Trinaldo should find a home for his kickboxing.
Markus Perez8600Wellington TurmanModerate-120+331I'm not a big fan of Perez's wildman routine. It's stale. Still, he can pull off the occasional submission.
Tracy Cortez8800Isabela De PaduaModerate-210+475The UFC debutant missed weight, as did her opponent. All's even on that front. Cortez's wrestling is probably too much for the very average Melo.
Antonio Arroyo8000Andre MunizModerate+100+234Getting the closest lined fight right usually pays big.
Andre Muniz8200Antonio ArroyoSomewhat-Risky-120+160I like Muniz as the better striker in a clash of grapplers.
        
Pay-Downs
Wellington Turman7600Markus PerezModerate+100+575Turman got a raw deal in his debut against Karl Roberson. That he was so solid against a quality guy his first time out is telling.
Ariane Lipski7700Isabela De PaduaModerate-170+560We don't have a line on this fight with de Padua coming as a 24-hour replacement. I don't have much info on her other than rough numbers. She seems to be an average local fighter, which were the types of fighter Lipski had thrived on.
Sergio Moraes7200James KrauseSomewhat-Risky+165+409"Panther" has given out his share of lessons on the octagon mat. He just doesn't look to get the fight there at all. His BJJ is world-class so it's a threat in any fight.
Eduardo Garagorri7000Ricardo RamosSomewhat-Risky+300+775Ramos is a bit flashy and that kind of fighter can quit if they run out tricks. If Garagorri is still there late in this fight he could turn the tide.
Bobby Green7800Francisco TrinaldoSomewhat-Risky+120+565Bobby Green is the only fighter with worse luck than Trinaldo. One of them has to win. Green's a good boxer but takes too much damage to be a reliable bet. Judge's decisions can get weird in Brazil, though.
Randy Brown7900Warlley AlvesSomewhat-Risky+110+345Brown is a much better athlete than MMA fighter. If he continues his recent progression, or Alves no-shows, Brown can use his size to make it a tough night for Alves.
Jared Gordon6800Charles OliveiraRisky+335+910Gordon would have to grit his way to a win here. His pace is hard for most to keep up with. Should Oliviera not be sharp he could get overwhelmed.
Renan Barao7100Douglas Silva de AndradeRisky+220+650Barao has been able to win one round cleary in most of his recent losses. If he can figure out how to win a second one he wins the fight.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Alves -130, Blachowicz -170, Gordon +335

Favorite Props: Turman via DEC +155, de Andrade ITD +157

Live Dogs: Turman, Moraes, Garagorri, Gordon, Brown

Stats & Picks:

Jan BlachowiczvsJacare Souza
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 24-8-0RecordRecord: 26-7-0 (1 NC)
6 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (31%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs14 SUBMISSIONS (54%)
-170Vegas Odds+150
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Mauricio RuavsPaul Craig
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 26-11-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
21 KO/TKO (81%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (8%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)Subs11 SUBMISSIONS (92%)
-280Vegas Odds+240
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Charles OliveiravsJared Gordon
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 27-8-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 15-3-0
7 KO/TKO (26%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (40%)
18 SUBMISSIONS (67%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-420Vegas Odds+335
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Antonio ArroyovsAndre Muniz
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 18-4-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (22%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs12 SUBMISSIONS (67%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Markus PerezvsWellington Turman
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 15-3-0
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (27%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (47%)
-120Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Sergio MoraesvsJames Krause
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 14-6-1RecordRecord: 25-8-0
1 KO/TKO (7%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (27%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs14 SUBMISSIONS (54%)
+165Vegas Odds-190
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Ricardo RamosvsEduardo Garagorri
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 13-0-0
3 KO/TKO (23%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (31%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)
-360Vegas Odds+300
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Francisco TrinaldovsBobby Green
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 23-7-0RecordRecord: 24-9-1
8 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (33%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (22%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-140Vegas Odds+120
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Warlley AlvesvsRandy Brown
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
3 KO/TKO (23%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (55%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-130Vegas Odds+110
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Douglas Silva de AndradevsRenan Barao
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 25-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 36-8-0 (1 NC)
19 KO/TKO (76%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (24%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)Subs15 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
-260Vegas Odds+220
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Ariane LipskivsIsabela De Padua
$7,700DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 11-5-0RecordRecord: 5-1-0
6 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (40%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
-170Vegas Odds#N/A
5/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Vanessa MelovsTracy Cortez
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 10-6-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (17%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
+175Vegas Odds-210
3/10Lineup Pool6/10