We’re back in Russia for this week’s Fight Night card. That means lots of Ruskies vs outsiders. It also means stay away from fights going to decisions. Lock is 11:00AM ET on Saturday.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Calvin Kattar | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Safe | -280/ +255 | +325/+385 | Zabit is a fairly large favorite but don't be mistaken, Kattar can win this fight. He's the biggest opponent Zabit has faced and by far the best. Kattar probably needs a KO to assure victory in hostile territory, though. He has the power and boxing to do it. Otherwise, Zabit will pick away and range and win some grappling. Since it's a 3 rounder it's not a stack in cash. |
Expensive | Magomed Ankalaev | 9400 | Dalcha Lungiambula | Safe | -400 | -110 | Ankalaev is pretty polished for a younger fighter. His striking is precise and he has nice grappling in his back pocket. If he stays away from an occasional haymaker he coasts to victory. |
| Alexander Volkov | 9200 | Greg Hardy | Moderate | -275 | -105 | Volkov is the better striker by far. He's more experienced, more polished, and more capable. Still, Hardy has that one shot power. | |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 9300 | David Zawada | Moderate | -290 | +335 | Khabib's cousin isn't all that similar stylisticly. The UFC is working to get him a win here, though. That's no given after a 1-1-1 PFL run. | |
| Grigorii Popov | 9000 | Davey Grant | Risky | -165 | +205 | Full fade here. I don't know how oddsmakers put this line out for a guy that spent a round and a half getting punched in the face by Eddie Wineland, the first real competition he faced. | |
Mid-Range | Zelim Imadaev | 8800 | Danny Roberts | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -120 | In his UFC debut Imadaev was a bull in a china shop. Max Griffin used effective grappling to matador the eager Russian. Roberts hasn't shown any real grappling and has major holes in his striking defense. Imadaev has a very live shot at the top score of the night. |
| Khadis Ibragimov | 8700 | Ed Herman | Somewhat-Safe | -130 | +115 | The biggest risk to Ibragimov is that he gets tired from repeatedly punching Herman in his giant head. We saw him gas in his last fight (which was also on short notice). It's possible he learned from that experience and will be less of an issue this time around. | |
| Ramazan Emeev | 8400 | Anthony Rocco Martin | Moderate | -130 | +425 | Emeev's grappling probably carries the day in a lackluster fight. | |
| Shamil Gamzatov | 8900 | Klidson Abreu | Moderate | -170 | +330 | A bet on Gamzatov is as much about a bet against Abreu, who just hasn't been very good in the UFC. | |
| Rustam Khabilov | 8600 | Sergey Khandozhko | Moderate | -175 | +330 | Overly safe wreslter meets middle of the road talent with takedown defense issues. Bank a boring decision if you wish. | |
| Roman Kopylov | 8300 | Karl Roberson | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +185 | A bit of an unknown, Kopylov has shown crisp striking at lower levels. That was enough to give Roberson trouble in his last fight. | |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 8500 | Alexander Yakovlev | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +470 | Roberts lost some of his prospect steam in a lose to Vinc Pichel. It's understandable, as Pichel is a gritty and well rounded vet. Yakolev is a similarly well rounded vet who leans on grappling. That's where Roberts has enjoyed his biggest advantage. | |
Pay-Downs | Alexander Yakovlev | 7700 | Roosevelt Roberts | Moderate | +135 | +725 | Yakolev showed he has something left in the tank with a submission win after a long layoff. The UFC is back in Russia and he gets the call again. He's always live for a sub. |
| Davey Grant | 7200 | Grigorii Popov | Moderate | +155 | +360 | Grant isn't with his flaws, he just shouldn't be priced this low against another fringe talent. He's happy to punch people, which Popov showed to be quite good at receiving. | |
| Karl Roberson | 7900 | Roman Kopylov | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +245 | Roberson isn't getting much credit here after a disappointing showing last fight as a big favorite. His opponent was Wellington Thurman wasn't a bum by any means, though. He should be a slight favorite as the vet but is a slight dog. | |
| Greg Hardy | 7000 | Alexander Volkov | Somewhat-Risky | +235 | +290 | Folks sure love to hate Greg Hardy. I don't blame them and often join in. If we're talking dollars and cents there's no one with a better shot at ending a fight ITD at the price. | |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 7800 | Ramazan Emeev | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +430 | People were all over the "new" Rocco Martin until he ran into BJJ legend Damien Maia. Maia has made far better opponents look bad, so maybe this is an opportunity to get a discount on Martin. | |
| Danny Roberts | 7400 | Zelim Imadaev | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +470 | Roberts is a classic case of exciting offense with lacking defense. Imadaev's aggression could get him in trouble with a well-timed shot. | |
| David Zawada | 6900 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Risky | +260 | +435 | Zawada is happy to stand and bang. Abubakar is going to engage on the feet. | |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 6800 | Magomed Ankalaev | Risky | +325 | +480 | Huge power with some solid offensive judo could make Dalcha Champ a major upset contender. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Ibragamov -130, Grant +155, Yakovlev +135
Favorite Props: Imadaev ITD -120, Kattar ITD +385, Ankalaev via DEC +220
Live Dogs: Kattar, Grant, Yakovlev, Rocco Martin, Hardy, Roberts, Zawada
Stats & Picks:
| Zabit Magomedsharipov | vs | Calvin Kattar |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 20-3-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alexander Volkov | vs | Greg Hardy |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 30-7-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 (1 NC) |
| 20 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Zelim Imadaev | vs | Danny Roberts |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Khadis Ibragimov | vs | Ed Herman |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 25-14-0 (1 NC) |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (54%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ramazan Emeev | vs | Anthony Rocco Martin |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (6%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Shamil Gamzatov | vs | Klidson Abreu |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Dalcha Lungiambula |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Rustam Khabilov | vs | Sergey Khandozhko |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 23-4-0 | Record | Record: 27-5-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Roman Kopylov | vs | Karl Roberson |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | vs | David Zawada |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-2-1 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Alexander Yakovlev | vs | Roosevelt Roberts |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 24-8-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | vs | Pannie Kianzad |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 9-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Grigorii Popov | vs | Davey Grant |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (10%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |