The UFC is back overseas this weekend, taking the promotion to Singapore. It’s a short card but there are some compelling fights. Especially at heavyweight where we’re getting a rare three-fight offering. That somewhat makes up for fewer fights as some of those big boys figure to get finishes. Lock is at 5:30 AM ET Saturday morning so go to bed Friday with what you want in play.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Not the most exciting main event of the year. It will be a compelling test of grappling on both sides, though. Askren will have the wrestling advantage and that has been a problem for Maia previously. He may also be content to lay in Maia's guard and pitter patter shots en route to a decision. Maia is still the best MMA submission artist alive so it's a dangerous game. I'd pick Askren to win but Maia is likely a better DK play at his price and chance to finish. | ||||||
Expensive | Michael Johnson | 9300 | Stevie Ray | Safe | -260 | +190 | Johnson is a favorite of the promotion and after tough fights (which he never turns down) they tend to give him a more manageable opponent. Ray is definitely that. Johnson is light years faster and is live for a KO of the Scotsman. |
| Ciryl Gane | 9200 | Safe | -335 | -185 | |||
| Rafael Fiziev | 8900 | Alex White | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +105 | Chalk favorite Fiziev let a lot of people down losing his debut. That has kept his price in check against a mediocre opponent in White. If White makes it ugly it could be a problem but Fiziev is a more dynamic striker by far if he gets his offense off. | |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 9000 | Maurice Greene | Moderate | -235 | -118 | ||
Mid-Range | Movsar Evloev | 8700 | Enrique Barzola | Somewhat-Safe | -180 | +450 | |
| Beneil Dariush | 8400 | Frank Camacho | Moderate | -165 | +180 | Dariush is much better technically speaking. He needs to avoid big shots as his chin is gone. Lately his focus has been grappling and that bodes well for an early submission win with some risk built-in. | |
| Muslim Salikhov | 8600 | Laureano Staropoli | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +115 | This should be a fun fight. Salikhov is a lethal counter puncher getting an active fighter in Staropoli. Betting on him to catch Staropoli on the way in has some risk but he should get his chances. | |
| Loma Lookboonmee | 8200 | Alexandra Albu | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +420 | Loma is the better striker and not lost on the mat. What she'll have to solve is Albu's aggression and strength. Emily Whitmire did that fairly easily. | |
| Alexandra Albu | 8000 | Loma Lookboonmee | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +485 | ||
| Randa Markos | 8300 | Ashley Yoder | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +750 | Markos is a slightly better version of Yoder. It's hard to know how she fights herself, though. Ultimately she's probably the aggressor and a little busier on the feet. | |
| Ashley Yoder | 7900 | Randa Markos | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +485 | Yoder's best chance is using her long limbs to catch Markos in a submission. That's in play given Markos willingness to grapple. | |
Pay-Downs | Frank Camacho | 7800 | Beneil Dariush | Moderate | +155 | +250 | Camacho is as tough as the come and the move in weight class seemed to pay dividends last time out. If he touches Dariush's chin it could be over in a hurry. He'll need to keep his neck safe in the meantime. |
| Laureano Staropoli | 7600 | Muslim Salikhov | Moderate | +140 | +495 | ||
| Raphael Pessoa | 7400 | Jeff Hughes | Moderate | +205 | +370 | Pessoa has dangerous power and a BJJ background. That makes him live in a fight that may go three rounds. His grappling wasn't great against Gane but Hughes isn't half the athlete Ciryl is. | |
| Enrique Barzola | 7500 | Movsar Evloev | Somewhat-Risky | +168 | +825 | ||
| Maurice Greene | 7200 | Sergei Pavlovich | Somewhat-Risky | +215 | +360 | Greene may be the most popular dog play on the card. His length and power make him a threat to any HW. With only 11 fights the strategy would be to fade this spot but he's extremely appealing against an opponent that's easy to hit. | |
| Alex White | 7300 | Rafael Fiziev | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +600 | White has been slowly improving. This is a tough task but he can grapple with his size and make it an ugly fight. Any win at the price is big on this card. | |
| 7000 | Ciryl Gane | Risky | +305 | +445 | It's rather unlikely but if you're taking someone with a punchers chance make it a heavyweight that hits as hard as Kong does. | ||
| Stevie Ray | 6900 | Michael Johnson | Risky | +240 | +800 |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays
Favorite Bets: Johnson -260, Evloev -180, Greene +215
Favorite Props: Maia ITD +245, Dariush ITD +180, Pessoa ITD +370
Live Dogs: Maia, Greene, Camacho, Staropoli, Pessoa, White
Stats & Picks:
| Demian Maia | vs | Ben Askren |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 27-9-0 | Record | Record: 19-1-0 (1 NC) |
| 3 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
| 13 SUBMISSIONS (48%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (32%) |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Michael Johnson | vs | Stevie Ray |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 20-14-0 | Record | Record: 22-9-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
| -260 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Frank Camacho | vs | Beneil Dariush |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-1 |
| 17 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (19%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Ciryl Gane | vs | |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +305 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Muslim Salikhov | vs | Laureano Staropoli |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Randa Markos | vs | Ashley Yoder |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 9-8-1 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alex White | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| +170 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Enrique Barzola | vs | Movsar Evloev |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 17-4-1 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
| +168 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Maurice Greene | vs | Sergei Pavlovich |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (77%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +215 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Alexandra Albu |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 3-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Raphael Pessoa | vs | Jeff Hughes |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| +205 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |