The rare Friday night card goes down tonight in Boston. It’s not the flashiest lineup but it’s solid through and through, with some possible early finishes. Dig in and get ahead on a short week.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Dominick Reyes vs Chris Weidman | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -170/ +160 | -125/+255 | This is a clear clash of narratives. Reyes is an aggressive striker and Weidman tends to get dropped in most fights. He is an excellent wrestler and Reyes has shown some takedown weakness. So a KO for Reyes or sub/GnP for Weidman is the likely outcomes. It's not the worst stack given the unpredictable outcome. I like the leverage on Weidman at the price. |
Expensive | Greg Hardy | 9300 | Ben Sosoli | Safe | -310 | -225 | The UFC is in the Greg Hardy business. They will keep finding him opponents that aren't a big threat. For his part, Hardy seems serious and his striking in scary. Sosoli is just too hittable. |
| Molly McCann | 9400 | Diana Belbita | Somewhat-Safe | -545 | +175 | McCann's an odd fighter to be the most expensive play. That says a lot about how low level her opponent is. McCann has been plenty busy in her last two fights. That figures to continue for however long the fight lasts. | |
| Boston Salmon | 9000 | Randy Costa | Moderate | -140 | +160 | Salmon is the better boxer by far. He likely weathers a dangerous first round and turns it on in the second. That may not score huge on DK if he doesn't find a finish. | |
| Sean Brady | 9200 | Court McGee | Moderate | -195 | +260 | Brady is an up and comer that is probably more the McGee can handle at this point. Still, McGee has a style that ruins scoring if it's effective. | |
Mid-Range | Maycee Barber | 8300 | Gillian Robertson | Somewhat-Safe | -140 | +150 | Barber has yet to face an opponent that can hangle her strength and striking. Robertson can match her strength wise but if she can't get Maycee to the mat she's in a bad spot. |
| Yair Rodriguez | 8100 | Jeremy Stephens | Moderate | -115 | +500 | Rodriguez would be able to stay at distance and out point Stephens if he wanted to. He tends to get hit by counters looking to brawl, though. It's a dangerous world trying to beat Stephens at his own game. | |
| Jeremy Stephens | 8100 | Yair Rodriguez | Moderate | +105 | +250 | Stephens has made no secret of his desire to put the hurt on Yair. He's a better fighter when he focuses on technique but Rodriguez may indulge the slugfest. This one will be dramatic. | |
| Jonathan Pearce | 8500 | Joe Lauzon | Moderate | -165 | -110 | Joe Lauzon is yet another fighter with name value that can't walk away from the game. He's probably in for a rough night at the hands of Jonathan Pearce. | |
| Deron Winn | 8200 | Darren Stewart | Moderate | -125 | +340 | Winn will need to get his wrestling going to get a win here. He loves striking, though. That's a dangerous game to play with someone who has Stewart's power. | |
| Darren Stewart | 8000 | Deron Winn | Moderate | +115 | +385 | Stewart is a small dog play and decent price. If he's able to shut down Winn's wrestling there's a good shot he ends things with his heavy hands. | |
| Manny Bermudez | 8700 | Charles Rosa | Moderate | -155 | +140 | Bermudez missed weight yet again, despite moving up a class. He's still a lethal MMA grappler and a decent bet to finish via sub in the first round. Rosa can grapple a little bit himself, so it's not a shoe in. | |
Pay-Downs | Brendan Allen | 7300 | Kevin Holland | Moderate | +150 | +565 | We've seen enough of Kevin Holland to know he's not that dangerous and willing to let the fight go places that don't benifit him. Allen is a good dog bet for a sub. |
| Gillian Robertson | 7900 | Maycee Barber | Moderate | +130 | +235 | Robertson's wrestling has been too much for most of the division. She's hit here stride and getting a tall task in Barber. If she's careful on the feet things could go her way on the mat. | |
| Charles Rosa | 7500 | Manny Bermudez | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +365 | Rosa is coming off a long layoff but is somewhat suited to give Bermudez trouble the way Casey Kenney did. It doesn't help Bermudez' head space that he missed weight (again) after coming up 10 lbs. | |
| Sean Woodson | 7800 | Kyle Bochniak | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +475 | Woodson's range will be too much for Bockniak. Neither is a finisher and Bochniak fights at a horrible pace for DK scoring. Unless Woodson surprises with a KO it's only a middling value. | |
| Randy Costa | 7200 | Boston Salmon | Risky | +130 | +270 | Costa comes out on fire and that was a problem for Salmon in his last KO loss. Costa has more than a punchers chance. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Stewart +115, Woodson +110, Hardy -310
Favorite Props: Allen ITD +565, McCann ITD +175, Weidman ITD +255
Live Dogs: Stewart, Weidman, Robertson, Allen, Costa
Stats & Picks:
| Dominick Reyes | vs | Chris Weidman |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Yair Rodriguez | vs | Jeremy Stephens |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 12-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 28-16-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (68%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Greg Hardy | vs | Ben Sosoli |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Joe Lauzon | vs | Jonathan Pearce |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 27-16-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (78%) |
| 17 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Maycee Barber | vs | Gillian Robertson |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Deron Winn | vs | Darren Stewart |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Charles Rosa | vs | Manny Bermudez |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (7%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (79%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Molly McCann | vs | Diana Belbita |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
| -545 | Vegas Odds | +465 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Kyle Bochniak | vs | Sean Woodson |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Randy Costa | vs | Boston Salmon |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 4-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Court McGee | vs | Sean Brady |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 20-8-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| +180 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brendan Allen | vs | Kevin Holland |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (58%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Daniel Spitz | vs | Tanner Boser |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |