The UFC’s giving us fourteen fights on this Fight Night Card. There’s bound to be some excitement somewhere in there. The main event is possible to fade if you’re feeling bold. Plenty of fighters have a shot at a finish so it’s going to take a big score to take down tournaments.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -335/ +275 | +330/+650 | For all the weight cut drama Joanna hit the mark with .5 lbs to spare. If she's close to her old self it's a good spot in a five-round fight. Problem is Waterson is cagey and not easy to rack up strikes against. She can also grapple some and has the best head and arm throw in women's MMA. It's not the best stack given the possible pace and the other pay downs available. I'll pick JJ to win a close fight. |
Expensive | Luis Pena | 9000 | Matt Frevola | Safe | -185 | +225 | Pena is a monster at 155. He'll have half a foot on Frevola, who is already easy to hit. We've been disappointed by Pena before but it would take a massive choke job to miss value here. |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 9300 | Tim Elliott | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +177 | Deus de Guerra has lethal power for the weight. Elliott pushes the pace and that leads to openings. If Figueiredo avoids being taken down he touches Elliott's chin at some point. | |
| Marlon Vera | 9100 | Andre Ewell | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | -105 | This must be the card of the disappointers. Vera has hurt us in the past against easy opponents. That was coming out of his raw days training in Ecuador. He seems to have caught up to the pack and is a dangerous fighter. | |
| Miguel Baeza | 9400 | Hector Aldana | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | +140 | It's a tough pill to swallow at the price, given how awful newcomers who are big favorites have been lately. Still, Baeza's most likely win is a first or second round KO so you may need him. | |
| Marvin Vettori | 9500 | Andrew Sanchez | Moderate | -350 | +248 | Vettori is an OK bet but bad DK play at this price. He's well-rounded but not a threat to finish things or put up crazy stats in a decision. | |
Mid-Range | Kron Gracie | 8700 | Cub Swanson | Somewhat-Safe | -165 | -105 | Kron is in an excellent spot here. Swanson is a nice name to beat and clearly on the decline. Once he gets a hold of Cub it's a sub is a forgone conclusion. |
| Mike Davis | 8600 | Thomas Gifford | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +115 | This is your free square. Davis came in as a late replacement and DK had already put the pricing out when his line dropped. He's a much better fighter than Gifford, full camp or not. | |
| Niko Price | 8400 | James Vick | Moderate | -145 | -125 | Price impressed in his loss to Geoff Neal. Neal is legit and scary. Niko gave him all he could handle. That doesn't lock in a victory here, though. Price absolutely can KO the chinny Vick. He's also super hittable and generally erratic. | |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8300 | Amanda Ribas | Moderate | -145 | +125 | The storyline here is Dern having a baby in June and making a speedy comeback. We've seen that be an issue in women's MMA. Her opponent is more of a fitness model, however. Ribas likely rushes in and gets caught in a submission. | |
| Ryan Spann | 8800 | Devin Clark | Moderate | -150 | -110 | Spann is always dangerous. He's long and fast and hits hard. His BJJ game is also dangerous. That makes him a great DK play if he performs. Clark does have some brutal KO losses in his past. | |
| Eryk Anders | 8500 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +160 | When Anders executes he looks pretty good. That's fairly sporadic, though. Meerschaert is an easy opponent to land on if you stay out of his guard. | |
Pay-Downs | Devin Clark | 7400 | Ryan Spann | Moderate | +130 | +400 | Clark's a thick 205'r and melds a game plan around his stocky wrestling. Spann's length could work against him here if he doesn't tag Clark and earn some respect. I like the price tag and Clark's chances of scoring on DK. |
| James Vick | 7800 | Niko Price | Moderate | +125 | +550 | Vick is being written off entirely in this one. Do you really want to play chalk Niko Price? No. That leaves us with leveraging his opponent. For his part, Vick can be dangerous at times and looks to avoid damage whenever possible. | |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7700 | Eryk Anders | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +190 | Greasy Gerald just finds ways to win. The effort is always there. He scores well as a dog when he wins. Anders has a tendency to shoot himself in the foot. Sounds like a play to me. | |
| Amanda Ribas | 7900 | Mackenzie Dern | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +400 | Ribas pushes the pace and that's about it. It could be enough if Dern is rusty after a year-long layoff having a baby. She smells chalky to me because of this so I'm going Dern's way for leverage. | |
| Tim Elliott | 6900 | Deiveson Figueiredo | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +740 | We've got to wrestling based pay downs in the $6K's. Elliot is coming off of major knee surgery two years ago. Prior to that he pushed a crazy wrestling pace and gave us DK gold. Figueredo has been takedown in fights. | |
| Andrew Sanchez | 6700 | Marvin Vettori | Somewhat-Risky | +290 | +940 | Sanchez is the other pay down and the one I prefer. He can land some takedowns and does have a bit of power. Vettori is also less dangerous. | |
| Lauren Mueller | 7300 | JJ Aldrich | Risky | +140 | +610 | Mueller needs a win bad and could out-muscle Aldrich en route to a grinding decision. | |
| Cub Swanson | 7500 | Kron Gracie | Risky | +145 | +330 | This would be a bet agaisnt Gracie's striking. Gracie would have to have ignored it entirely to lose a decision to Cub, though. | |
| Matt Frevola | 7200 | Luis Pena | Risky | +160 | +585 | As mentioned, Pena has let us down prior. Frevola's best tool is his grit. If Pena quits in the ring it could be a big upset. |
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
VEGAS ODDS
Favorite Bets: Pena -160, Clark +130, Vera -155
Favorite Props: Gracie ITD +105, Dern via SUB +150, Vick ITD +550
Live Dogs: Clark, Vick, Meerschaert, Waterson, Ribas, Sanchez
Stats & Picks
| Joanna Jedrzejczyk | vs | Michelle Waterson |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (53%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Cub Swanson | vs | Kron Gracie |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 25-11-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (100%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Niko Price | vs | James Vick |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 13-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Mackenzie Dern | vs | Amanda Ribas |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Matt Frevola | vs | Luis Pena |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 7-1-1 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Eryk Anders | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 29-11-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 22 SUBMISSIONS (73%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ryan Spann | vs | Devin Clark |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Mike Davis | vs | Thomas Gifford |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-8-0 (2 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (86%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 12 SUBMISSIONS (86%) |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | vs | Tim Elliott |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-8-1 |
| 8 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Marlon Vera | vs | Andre Ewell |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 14-5-1 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Miguel Baeza | vs | Hector Aldana |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 4-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Marvin Vettori | vs | Andrew Sanchez |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 13-4-1 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
| -350 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| JJ Aldrich | vs | Lauren Mueller |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |