The UFC’s world tour summer stint will wrap up down under in Melbourne, Australia with UFC 243. Aussie Robert Whittaker will meet Kiwi Israel Adesanya in a middleweight title unification for the ages. This has the makings a fun rivalry. The card is a short one with only eleven total fights and some less inspiring bouts tacked on. Be bold in some close fights and look to gain an edge on the field.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -105/ -115 | +205/+216 | This fight has the makings of an all-time great. What else is new for a Whitaker fight. Bobby Knuckles isn't physically imposing or all that lethal in any one area. He just walks through people somehow. Adesanya is a particularly tough test. That's saying something coming off of back to back wars with Yoel Romero. The fight probably lasts into the championship rounds and comes down to who's landing more. It's a viable stack in cash and possibly even GPPs. |
Expensive | Tai Tuivasa | 9300 | Serghei Spivac | Safe | -365 | -222 | Bam Bam is in front of a home crowd getting a wrestler that was blasted by Walt Harris in under a minute. It's a big price but hard to see any outcome other than Tuivasa by knockout. |
Maki Pitolo | 9000 | Callan Potter | Safe | -350 | -210 | The Hawaiian Pitolo is aggressive in typical Islander fashion. That's going to be a nightmare for the mediocre Potter. Expect an early highlight real KO. | |
Megan Anderson | 9400 | Zarah Fairn dos Santos | Somewhat-Safe | -500 | -150 | The UFC is doing their best to get Anderson a win in her home country. dos Santos isn't likely to wrestle so Anderson can show off her striking. | |
Jake Matthews | 9100 | Rostem Akman | Moderate | -360 | +163 | Matthews is a grinder and probably the better fighter here. He'll have a hard time supporting that salary in a decision, though. | |
Mid-Range | Brad Riddell | 8600 | Jamie Mullarkey | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +170 | Riddell is an accomplished kickboxer transitioning to MMA. His lone MMA loss is via armbar. Grappling will be his opponent's best path to victory for some time. |
Dhiego Lima | 8400 | Luke Jumeau | Somewhat-Safe | -150 | +360 | Lima seems to be hitting his stride. He KO'd striker Chad Laprise and out-wrestled wrestler Court McGee. Jumeau doesn't seem like a taller task than either. This is a great spot for Lima to continue building momentum. | |
Justin Tafa | 8300 | Yorgan De Castro | Moderate | -120 | +104 | Tafa is pretty raw at 3-0 but trains with a good team and is the brother of kickboxing standout Junior Tafa. To beat De Castro he'll need to have taken a step forward. His power is deadly and can drop anyone if he can get to their chin. | |
Dan Hooker | 8500 | Al Iaquinta | Moderate | -165 | +255 | Hooker can drop anyone in the division. He's at his best storming out of the gates and pressuring opponents early. At 8500 he doesn't quite need a knockout but it would help. | |
Khalid Taha | 8900 | Bruno Silva | Moderate | -235 | +165 | Taha is wrecking ball, stout and powerful. He blasted decent boxer Boston Salmon right out of the gate in his last fight. That's a possibility here, as well, if he can avoid Silva's grappling. | |
Ji Yeon Kim | 8700 | Nadia Kassem | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +448 | Kim is the better technician and has a reach advantage. That's typically a recipe for success. It's hard to roster a female fighter without stopping power in this price range, though. | |
Pay-Downs | Al Iaquinta | 7700 | Dan Hooker | Moderate | +145 | +560 | Raging Al' has been ping-ponging from favorite to dog lately. Hooker can get himself in trouble if fights turn into brawls, and Iaquinta can certainly brawl. I'm going to be overweight on the crafty veteran. |
Yorgan De Castro | 7900 | Justin Tafa | Moderate | +100 | +184 | De Castro showed really nasty leg kicks in his DWTNCS win. It's hard to know what he'll look like given how easy that win was. He'll need to stay away from Tafa's big left and stay more technical. | |
Rostem Akman | 7100 | Jake Matthews | Moderate | +300 | +630 | Akman might be a poor matchup for Matthews given he's a competent wrestler. When Matthews loses the advantage on the mat he becomes a beatable fighter. | |
Jamie Mullarkey | 7600 | Brad Riddell | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +205 | Mullarkey will likely be looking to submit Riddell and avoid a kickboxing match. If that happens in one of the first two rounds it's a slate breaker. | |
Nadia Kassem | 7500 | Ji Yeon Kim | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +675 | An Australia Top Team product, Kassem has gotten their usual treatment of cake matchups heading into the UFC. She has shown some tenacity in the Octagon though and shouldn't be counted out here. | |
Bruno Silva | 7300 | Khalid Taha | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +402 | If Taha can't bullrush Silva successfully there a path to victory for the Brazilian via grappling. Taha's aggression can work against him there. | |
Luke Jumeau | 7800 | Dhiego Lima | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +350 | Jumeau has found a niche decisioning mediocre fighters in his backyard. Lima is the better fighter but not all that aggressive. It's possible Jumeau gets a greasy win, which is huge on this short slate. | |
Zarah Fairn dos Santos | 6800 | Megan Anderson | Risky | +400 | +876 | dos Santos is a decent salary saver that could see the scorecards. Anderson used to be dangerous but we have to wonder where her confidence is at the moment. | |
Serghei Spivac | 6900 | Tai Tuivasa | Risky | +305 | +550 | Spivac's main path to victory would be landing an early takedown on Tuivasa. It's not out of the question given Tuivasa's propensity to swing for the fences and open himself up. |
Cash Plays: Main Event Stack, Pitolo, dos Santos as a paydown
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: One of the Main Event Fighters, Tuivasa, Iaquinta or Hooker, Tafa or De Castro, Taha
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Bets
Favorite Bets: Whittaker -110, Iaquinta +145, Pitolo -345
Favorite Props: Tuivasa in RD1 -105, Tafa via KO +115
Live Dogs: Iaquinta, De Castro, Akman, Mullarkey, Kassem
Stats & Picks:
Robert Whittaker | vs | Israel Adesanya |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 21-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-0-0 |
9 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (76%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Al Iaquinta | vs | Dan Hooker |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 14-5-1 | Record | Record: 19-8-0 |
7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (56%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
-365 | Vegas Odds | +305 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Luke Jumeau | vs | Dhiego Lima |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Justin Tafa | vs | Yorgan De Castro |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 3-0-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
3 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (80%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jake Matthews | vs | Rostem Akman |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (83%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Callan Potter | vs | Maki Pitolo |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 17-8-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
6 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
10 SUBMISSIONS (59%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
+290 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Brad Riddell | vs | Jamie Mullarkey |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Megan Anderson | vs | Zarah Fairn |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-500 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Nadia Kassem | vs | Ji Yeon Kim |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-2 |
4 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Khalid Taha | vs | Bruno Silva |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-1 |
9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |