The UFC’s world tour summer stint will wrap up down under in Melbourne, Australia with UFC 243. Aussie Robert Whittaker will meet Kiwi Israel Adesanya in a middleweight title unification for the ages. This has the makings a fun rivalry. The card is a short one with only eleven total fights and some less inspiring bouts tacked on. Be bold in some close fights and look to gain an edge on the field.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya
8200/8000
-
Stackability: Moderate
-105/ -115
+205/+216
This fight has the makings of an all-time great. What else is new for a Whitaker fight. Bobby Knuckles isn't physically imposing or all that lethal in any one area. He just walks through people somehow. Adesanya is a particularly tough test. That's saying something coming off of back to back wars with Yoel Romero. The fight probably lasts into the championship rounds and comes down to who's landing more. It's a viable stack in cash and possibly even GPPs.
        
Expensive
Tai Tuivasa9300Serghei SpivacSafe-365-222Bam Bam is in front of a home crowd getting a wrestler that was blasted by Walt Harris in under a minute. It's a big price but hard to see any outcome other than Tuivasa by knockout.
Maki Pitolo9000Callan PotterSafe-350-210The Hawaiian Pitolo is aggressive in typical Islander fashion. That's going to be a nightmare for the mediocre Potter. Expect an early highlight real KO.
Megan Anderson9400Zarah Fairn dos SantosSomewhat-Safe-500-150The UFC is doing their best to get Anderson a win in her home country. dos Santos isn't likely to wrestle so Anderson can show off her striking.
Jake Matthews9100Rostem AkmanModerate-360+163Matthews is a grinder and probably the better fighter here. He'll have a hard time supporting that salary in a decision, though.
        
Mid-Range
Brad Riddell8600Jamie MullarkeySomewhat-Safe-185+170Riddell is an accomplished kickboxer transitioning to MMA. His lone MMA loss is via armbar. Grappling will be his opponent's best path to victory for some time.
Dhiego Lima8400Luke JumeauSomewhat-Safe-150+360Lima seems to be hitting his stride. He KO'd striker Chad Laprise and out-wrestled wrestler Court McGee. Jumeau doesn't seem like a taller task than either. This is a great spot for Lima to continue building momentum.
Justin Tafa8300Yorgan De CastroModerate-120+104Tafa is pretty raw at 3-0 but trains with a good team and is the brother of kickboxing standout Junior Tafa. To beat De Castro he'll need to have taken a step forward. His power is deadly and can drop anyone if he can get to their chin.
Dan Hooker8500Al IaquintaModerate-165+255Hooker can drop anyone in the division. He's at his best storming out of the gates and pressuring opponents early. At 8500 he doesn't quite need a knockout but it would help.
Khalid Taha8900Bruno SilvaModerate-235+165Taha is wrecking ball, stout and powerful. He blasted decent boxer Boston Salmon right out of the gate in his last fight. That's a possibility here, as well, if he can avoid Silva's grappling.
Ji Yeon Kim8700Nadia KassemSomewhat-Risky-175+448Kim is the better technician and has a reach advantage. That's typically a recipe for success. It's hard to roster a female fighter without stopping power in this price range, though.
        
Pay-Downs
Al Iaquinta7700Dan HookerModerate+145+560Raging Al' has been ping-ponging from favorite to dog lately. Hooker can get himself in trouble if fights turn into brawls, and Iaquinta can certainly brawl. I'm going to be overweight on the crafty veteran.
Yorgan De Castro7900Justin TafaModerate+100+184De Castro showed really nasty leg kicks in his DWTNCS win. It's hard to know what he'll look like given how easy that win was. He'll need to stay away from Tafa's big left and stay more technical.
Rostem Akman7100Jake MatthewsModerate+300+630Akman might be a poor matchup for Matthews given he's a competent wrestler. When Matthews loses the advantage on the mat he becomes a beatable fighter.
Jamie Mullarkey7600Brad RiddellSomewhat-Risky+160+205Mullarkey will likely be looking to submit Riddell and avoid a kickboxing match. If that happens in one of the first two rounds it's a slate breaker.
Nadia Kassem7500Ji Yeon KimSomewhat-Risky+155+675An Australia Top Team product, Kassem has gotten their usual treatment of cake matchups heading into the UFC. She has shown some tenacity in the Octagon though and shouldn't be counted out here.
Bruno Silva7300Khalid TahaSomewhat-Risky+195+402If Taha can't bullrush Silva successfully there a path to victory for the Brazilian via grappling. Taha's aggression can work against him there.
Luke Jumeau7800Dhiego LimaSomewhat-Risky+130+350Jumeau has found a niche decisioning mediocre fighters in his backyard. Lima is the better fighter but not all that aggressive. It's possible Jumeau gets a greasy win, which is huge on this short slate.
Zarah Fairn dos Santos6800Megan AndersonRisky+400+876dos Santos is a decent salary saver that could see the scorecards. Anderson used to be dangerous but we have to wonder where her confidence is at the moment.
Serghei Spivac6900Tai TuivasaRisky+305+550Spivac's main path to victory would be landing an early takedown on Tuivasa. It's not out of the question given Tuivasa's propensity to swing for the fences and open himself up.

Cash Plays: Main Event Stack, Pitolo, dos Santos as a paydown

(Sample lineup)

 

GPP Plays: One of the Main Event Fighters, Tuivasa, Iaquinta or Hooker, Tafa or De Castro, Taha

(Sample lineup)

 

Vegas Bets

Favorite Bets: Whittaker -110, Iaquinta +145, Pitolo -345

Favorite Props: Tuivasa in RD1 -105, Tafa via KO +115

Live Dogs: Iaquinta, De Castro, Akman, Mullarkey, Kassem

 

Stats & Picks:

Robert WhittakervsIsrael Adesanya
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 21-4-0RecordRecord: 17-0-0
9 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts13 KO/TKO (76%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-105Vegas Odds-115
6/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Al IaquintavsDan Hooker
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 14-5-1RecordRecord: 19-8-0
7 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (56%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)
+145Vegas Odds-165
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tai TuivasavsSerghei Spivac
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
7 KO/TKO (88%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (44%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)
-365Vegas Odds+305
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Luke JumeauvsDhiego Lima
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 13-4-0RecordRecord: 16-7-0
5 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (29%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (31%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
+130Vegas Odds-150
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Justin TafavsYorgan De Castro
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 3-0-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
3 KO/TKO (100%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (80%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-120Vegas Odds+100
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jake MatthewsvsRostem Akman
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 14-4-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
4 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (83%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-360Vegas Odds+300
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Callan PottervsMaki Pitolo
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 17-8-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
6 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (59%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
+290Vegas Odds-350
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Brad RiddellvsJamie Mullarkey
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 6-1-0RecordRecord: 12-2-0
4 KO/TKO (80%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (50%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Megan AndersonvsZarah Fairn
$9,400DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 9-4-0RecordRecord: 6-2-0
5 KO/TKO (56%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (67%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-500Vegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Nadia KassemvsJi Yeon Kim
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 5-1-0RecordRecord: 8-2-2
4 KO/TKO (80%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (13%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+155Vegas Odds-175
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Khalid TahavsBruno Silva
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 11-3-1
9 KO/TKO (69%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (30%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
-235Vegas Odds+195
7/10Lineup Pool2/10