The UFC is overseas yet again with another greasy card. This stop is in Copenhagen. Some Nordic favorites are going and could get the hometown rub. Keep in mind many fighters had to travel and change timezones. There’s at least some relative safety at the top of the price scale for us to lean on this week.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Jack Hermansson vs Jared Cannonier | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -250/ +230 | -140/+300 | Jack the Joker has some of the best ground and pound in the game. He can also submit you if he's on top. Outstriking Jacare Souza on short notice last fight was supremely impressive for where he's boxing has improved to. Cannonier's path to victory is to come out hot and test Hermansson's chin. That's a tall task. If he doesn't connect early he could be in for a long night. I'm less inclined to stack this fight in cash. |
Expensive | Macy Chiasson | 9400 | Lina Lansberg | Safe | -425 | -101 | Chiasson is tearing through the women's 135 division. This is a great spot for her to add a name to her list of wins on her way to title contention. Her aggression and finishing ability makes her viable even at 9400. |
| Mark Madsen | 9500 | Danilo Belluardo | Safe | -675 | +110 | The local Olympian makes his UFC debut in the co-main event. He's set up for a win against a tomato can. He's had less luck finishing opponents as the competition has improved but is still 8-0. | |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 9100 | Ovince Saint Preux | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | -123 | Lord Michal has been tearing through decent opponents in his three UFC fights. His pace and power keep him in play even as a big favorite. Ownership could be lower than expected with OSP's name recognition. | |
| Ismail Naurdiev | 9000 | Siyar Bahadurzada | Moderate | -185 | +310 | Naurdiev is a riskier play given the struggles he's had with wrestling and Siyar's pedigree on the mat. He does look for the KO and could land it if he's able to stuff takedowns. The ownership should be low off his last loss. | |
Mid-Range | Brandon Davis | 8700 | Giga Chikadze | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +310 | Davis has the ability to grapple and would be wise to use it here. That's never a great risk to take, especially at 8700, but there's some leverage here on a guy that should finish. |
| Jack Shore | 8900 | Nohelin Hernandez | Somewhat-Safe | -165 | +130 | Newcomer Jack Shore is a typical UK fighter with a diverse skillset and no major advantage in any. His wrestling is likely enough to stifle Hernandez but needs a finish at this price. | |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8400 | Ion Cutelaba | Moderate | -130 | +175 | Rountree has refocussed and turned into a lethal weapon. His athletecism combined with superior striking technique is trouble for anyone. Cutelaba hasn't been the best UFC fighter, either. | |
| Gilbert Burns | 8300 | Gunnar Nelson | Moderate | -120 | +340 | Burns has the power to crack Gunnar's questionable chin. He's dangerous on the mat so this fight could take place mainly on the feet. It's a bit of a concern that he's again taking a late notice fight. | |
| Makhmud Muradov | 8600 | Alessio Di Chirico | Moderate | -150 | +260 | Muradov is an odd favorite as a late replacement and not the best competition to date. He's dangerous but Di Chirico is gritty. The fight smells like a setup so it is making my spidey sense tingle. I may just stay away. | |
| Marc Diakiese | 8500 | Lando Vannata | Moderate | -150 | +330 | Diakiese is coming off a nice win and can certainly bang. It's hard to know what version of Vannata we'll be getting but Diakiese deserves to be the favorite. | |
| Alex Oliveira | 8800 | Nicolas Dalby | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +165 | Cowboy Oliveira brings excitement to every fight. He's always dangerous despite shooting himself in the foot often. The UFC may be looking to phase him out with some current legal troubles. | |
| Alen Amedovski | 8200 | John Phillips | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +199 | To beat Phillps you need an existent ground game. As in try one single takedown and you will submit him. Amedovski has that ability at least. Hopefully he chooses to use it. | |
| John Phillips | 8000 | Alen Amedovski | Risky | +110 | +168 | Phillips will stand in front of you and wing hooks. If you let him hit you, it's trouble. We don't know that much about Amedovski and whether he's dumb enough to trade with Phillips. | |
Pay-Downs | Gunnar Nelson | 7900 | Gilbert Burns | Moderate | +110 | +405 | Gunnar is going to have to crowd behind him and be in friendly surroundings. He's dangerous on the feet and on the mat. I'm adding more Nelson with crowd seemingly on Burns. |
| Nicolas Dalby | 7400 | Alex Oliveira | Moderate | +120 | +378 | Dalby is getting a beatable opponent if you fight with a good game plan. | |
| Siyar Bahadurzada | 7200 | Ismail Naurdiev | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +345 | Bahadurzada can wrestle his way to a victory if his gas tank holds up. Naurdiev had trouble with that in his last loss. | |
| Lando Vannata | 7700 | Marc Diakiese | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +330 | Vannata fights up or down to his competition. If he's on point he can hang with anyone. Diakiese has had his own struggles, as well. | |
| Alessio Di Chirico | 7600 | Makhmud Muradov | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +345 | Di Chirico is a grinder. He probably loses the first round but could certainly turn the tide and win the last two with the better work. | |
| Ion Cutelaba | 7800 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +145 | Cutelaba's path to victory is likely wrestling. He seems to love striking more, though. He can deliver a knockout if he connects, but Rountree is a sharper striker. | |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7100 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +305 | OSP has stolen victories from plenty of favorites in his day. He's still a tough athlete to handle for most and has the length to leverage a submission if it lands. | |
| Giga Chikadze | 7500 | Brandon Davis | Risky | +135 | +300 | Chikadze would win in a kickboxing match. If Davis let's that happen he's entirely hittable at a high rate. | |
| Nohelin Hernandez | 7300 | Jack Shore | Risky | +145 | +355 | Nohelin has a good offense but troublesome defense. He's getting an unproven debutant so there's a chance he could out box the young Welshman. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays
Favorite Bets: Nelson +110, Dalby +120, Di Chirico +130
Favorite Props: Chiasson ITD -101, Rountree ITD +175, Davis ITD +310
Live Dogs: Nelson, Dalby, Di Chirico, OSP, Bahadurzada, Vannata, Hernandez
Stats & Picks:
| Jack Hermansson | vs | Jared Cannonier |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Mark Madsen | vs | Danilo Belluardo |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -675 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Gunnar Nelson | vs | Gilbert Burns |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 17-4-1 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (24%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 12 SUBMISSIONS (71%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ion Cutelaba | vs | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 11 KO/TKO (79%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 23-13-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 11 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| +200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Nicolas Dalby | vs | Alex Oliveira |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 17-3-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 19-7-1 (2 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Alen Amedovski | vs | John Phillips |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC) |
| 8 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 18 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Alessio Di Chirico | vs | Makhmud Muradov |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (68%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Siyar Bahadurzada | vs | Ismail Naurdiev |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 24-7-1 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 14 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (61%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (28%) |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brandon Davis | vs | Giga Chikadze |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 10-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Macy Chiasson | vs | Lina Lansberg |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -425 | Vegas Odds | +340 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Marc Diakiese | vs | Lando Vannata |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-2 |
| 6 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jack Shore | vs | Nohelin Hernandez |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |