The Octagon heads to the great white north this weekend for UFC Vancouver. The headliner is matchmaking at its best in a likely firefight between Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje. The card is notably short on big favorites and safe bets. Take your stand on a few fights and mix in some wildcards to round out your lineups.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Safe | +160/ -185 | +215/-165 | Gaethje has one gear, forward at full throttle. It's worked well for him with a 20-2 career record. You just can't prepare for an opponent that cares nothing for taking damage the way he does. That's a troublesome task for Cowboy as he's a couter-puncher. Still, Cerrone was right there in his last fight against the similar Tony Ferguson (losing, but in it). His counters are some of the best in MMA and Gaethje gets hurt aplenty. This will be a fun fight. Very stackable. |
Expensive | Michel Pereira | 9500 | Tristan Connelly | Safe | -535 | -240 | The man is a human highlight real. He cares not for safe performances and his record shows it. If you can't play matador against him you're in big trouble, though. |
| Louis Smolka | 9200 | Ryan MacDonald | Somewhat-Safe | -255 | +140 | Smolka has been a frequent UFC disapointment, so it makes sense people are scared off this price/line. His opponent is extremely mediocre without a clear path to victory, though. Leverage is likely. | |
| Brad Katona | 8900 | Hunter Azure | Moderate | -160 | +370 | Katona's biggest issue is being a generalist. That's enough to win fights but less interesting for DK. | |
| Antonio Carlos Junior | 9100 | Uriah Hall | Somewhat-Risky | -250 | -120 | Shoeface may be able to drag Hall down and submit him. It's a tall task against a great striker and athlete, though. A good amount of risk on this play. | |
Mid-Range | Jeff Hughes | 8300 | Todd Duffee | Somewhat-Safe | -125 | +175 | Hughes is the polar opposite of Duffee's flash and physique. He's a grinder with average athleticism. If Duffee doesn't knock you out in the first minute he's in trouble, however. It doesn't take much power to KO the glass jaw Duffee. |
| Jordan Griffin | 8700 | Chas Skelly | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +140 | I'm higher on Griffin than most. He's dangerous and an excellent athlete. People aren't giving his scrap with Dan Ige enough credit since it was a loss. Ige is a dude and rising. Griffin will have learned some lessons and hopefully be ready for the crafty Skelly. | |
| Nikita Krylov | 8500 | Glover Teixeira | Moderate | -125 | +130 | Krylov fights don't tend to go the distance. He looked great in his last fight so it will be interesting to see if he can keep that focus. Teixeira's chin also has a ton of miles on it. | |
| Jimmy Crute | 8200 | Misha Cirkunov | Moderate | -110 | +125 | Crute's aggression plays one of two ways. He overwhelms Cirkunov and breaks his crumbling chin again. Or he wades recklessly into a submission by the crafty vet. A great fight to target. | |
| Misha Cirkunov | 8000 | Jimmy Crute | Moderate | -110 | +175 | See above. | |
| Miles Johns | 8600 | Cole Smith | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +320 | Johns starts great and loses his way. If he can hurt Smith early it will help immensely. Hard to have faith after some of the poor decision making he's shown. | |
| Austin Hubbard | 8800 | Kyle Prepolec | Risky | -135 | +410 | Hubbard's well-rounded and will look to win a decision. Not great for the price. | |
| Marcin Tybura | 8400 | Augusto Sakai | Risky | -120 | +450 | There's always a chance Tybura pulls out a head kick KO. | |
Pay-Downs | Augusto Sakai | 7800 | Marcin Tybura | Moderate | +100 | +245 | Sakai didn't look great in his last fight with Arlovski, but that tends to happen in Arlovski fights. I'm betting on him resuming his aggression and power striking en route to a KO. |
| Glover Teixeira | 7700 | Nikita Krylov | Moderate | +105 | +135 | The old dog has been teaching younger guys his tricks for a while now. Each time out he seems to get hurt a little more and looks a little slower. This seems like a breaking point to me but Krylov can be exposed on the mat. Glover can certainly do that. | |
| Todd Duffee | 7900 | Jeff Hughes | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +145 | Duffee goes out guns blazing, I'll give him that. It's much more likely he gets KO'd than lands a big shot. At least he'll go for the finish. | |
| Uriah Hall | 7100 | Antonio Carlos Junior | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +415 | This is a great price for Hall, who has a major advantage in the striking. His takedown defense is also solid. We've gotten used to Hall disapointing us but you have to back him here I think. | |
| Cole Smith | 7600 | Miles Johns | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +400 | Smith is a tough fighter who can take damage and keep coming. His gas tank should allow him to weather an early storm and win the late rounds. | |
| Hunter Azure | 7300 | Brad Katona | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +540 | Azure fights out of the MMA Lab, which has questionable fight plans at times. He could lean on his wrestling and win this fight. Will he though? | |
| Chas Skelly | 7500 | Jordan Griffin | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +285 | Skelly has one path to victory and it's via submission. He's good at it but it's a risky way to win. | |
| Kyle Prepolec | 7400 | Austin Hubbard | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +500 | Prepolec should be able to do damage early against Hubbard. He's only average himself, though. This could be a mediocre fight. | |
| Tristan Connelly | 6700 | Michel Pereira | Risky | +420 | +725 | If Pereira overextends and leaves his neck out Connelly has the BJJ to capitalize. |
Cash Plays: Gaethje/Cerrone stack, Hughes, Smolka, Sakai
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Griffin, Crute or Cirkunov, Krylov or Teixeira, Hughes or Duffee
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Gaethje -185, Hall +210, Smith +110
Favorite Props: Hughes ITD +175, Sakai ITD +245, Crute ITD +125
Live Dogs: Cerrone, Teixeira, Hall, Sakai, Smith, Azure, Skelly, Prepolec
Stats & Picks
| Donald Cerrone | vs | Justin Gaethje |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 36-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (85%) |
| 17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Glover Teixeira | vs | Nikita Krylov |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 29-7-0 | Record | Record: 26-6-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (28%) | Subs | 15 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Todd Duffee | vs | Jeff Hughes |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Michel Pereira | vs | Tristan Connelly |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 23-9-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (69%) |
| -535 | Vegas Odds | +420 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Uriah Hall | vs | Antonio Carlos Junior |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 15-9-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 11 KO/TKO (79%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) |
| +210 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Misha Cirkunov | vs | Jimmy Crute |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Marcin Tybura | vs | Augusto Sakai |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (77%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Cole Smith | vs | Miles Johns |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Brad Katona | vs | Hunter Azure |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Chas Skelly | vs | Jordan Griffin |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (59%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Louis Smolka | vs | Ryan MacDonald |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -255 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Kyle Prepolec | vs | Austin Hubbard |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |