This is an excellent PPV card with the UFC putting it's best foot forward in Abu Dhabi. At the top, a title unification bout, and entertaining scraps all throughout. As with most PPV events, there are live dogs in bunches. Keep in mind where the event is taking place and how the judging may go. Lineups lock in the morning, so get your research done early.
| | Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown |
Main Event | Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Dustin Poirier | 9300/6900 | - | Stackability: Safe | -400/ +355 | +113/+475 | This has the makings of a fight of year. Khabib has shown no weaknesses in the Octagon. He may be the best wrestler in MMA history. Poirier has shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to win a fight beyond what anyone else can match. We've been waiting for a striker to test Khabib on the feet and this just may be the spot. Obviously it comes down to whether Poirier can stay off his back. I see Khabib winning early rounds with Dustin mounting a charge late and looking for a KO. Great for a stack given that it's likely to last into the late rounds. |
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Expensive | Zubaira Tukhugov | 9500 | Lerone Murphy | Safe | -320 | +217 | Tukhugov's power is likely more than Murphy can handle. He also offers some wrestling and could post a big DK score. He'll have to at this price. |
| Curtis Blaydes | 9400 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Somewhat-Safe | -475 | -110 | No heavyweight has had an answer for Blaydes wrestling and physicality. He's going to come out and look to do the same thing. The bigger risk is that lay and pray wins don't break 100 points. |
| Mairbek Taisumov | 9000 | Diego Ferreira | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +120 | |
| Islam Makhachev | 9200 | Davi Ramos | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | | Makhachev's style is the closest you can get to Khabib. He's smothering and leaves few openings for opponents. He's scored well on DK before but may opt for a safer approach against the dangerous BJJ of Ramos. |
| Belal Muhammad | 9100 | Takashi Sato | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | +373 | Muhammad is a better fighter in all areas besides the power department. If he can avoid getting caught he's a good bet to win a decision with a sneaky submission possibility. |
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Mid-Range | Edson Barboza | 8500 | Paul Felder | Somewhat-Safe | -145 | +281 | My read on the crowd is most people want to play Felder. Barboza is still a very dangerous striker, despite a deteriorating chin. His kick game is one of the best around. |
| Omari Akhmedov | 8300 | Zak Cummings | Somewhat-Safe | -110 | +340 | Akhmedov is tough as nails and versatile. He also hits like a truck. His DK scores suffer when he gasses and can't finish. Cummings is no cupcake either. |
| Don Madge | 8700 | Fares Ziam | Somewhat-Safe | -165 | +125 | Madge is very aggressive and scores in bunches. He's got a late replacement which can make things harder to predict but this sets up well. |
| Ottman Azaitar | 8900 | Teemu Packalen | Somewhat-Safe | -230 | -109 | Azaitar is getting set up for a win. He's well rounded and will have the crowd behind him. |
| Liana Jojua | 8400 | Sarah Moras | Moderate | -150 | +390 | Jojua is a bit of an unknown but I'm happy to bet against Sarah Moras when possible. |
| Andrea Lee | 8800 | Joanne Calderwood | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +440 | Lee is a tight and powerful kickboxer. She showed an newfound ability to defend takedowns in her last fight. This is still a big price for a younger fighter. |
| Muslim Salikhov | 8000 | Nordine Taleb | Risky | +110 | +255 | Salikhov is a dynamic striker with some holes in his game. This one boils down to how he deals with Taleb's length. If he can get past Taleb's range he can do damage. |
| Nordine Taleb | 8200 | Muslim Salikhov | Risky | -120 | +380 | Taleb tends to disappoint in spots he's popular and shine when ignored. His length and physique give him an advantage over a lot of fighters. |
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Pay-Downs | Diego Ferreira | 7200 | Mairbek Taisumov | Moderate | +245 | +405 | I'm a Ferreira fan so I'll be playing some. The line isn't that off, however. Hopefully this fight lives up to expectations. |
| Paul Felder | 7700 | Edson Barboza | Moderate | +135 | +310 | I may fade Felder as a chalky underdog. He's got good muai Thai and could certainly test Barbosa's chin. He's not Justin Gaethje, though. No one is. |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 6800 | Curtis Blaydes | Somewhat-Risky | +420 | +585 | Shamil is a crafty fighter who could frustrate Blaydes in spots. At heavyweight anything can happen. |
| Joanne Calderwood | 7400 | Andrea Lee | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +695 | Jojo is going to be a nice leverage play with the buzz on Lee. It's a much closer fight than how it's lined. Especially if Jojo can utilize some grappling, which Lee can struggle with. |
| Zak Cummings | 7900 | Omari Akhmedov | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +298 | Cummings has made a career of winning as a dog. Akhmedov has a tendency to gas, as well. |
| Davi Ramos | 7000 | Islam Makhachev | Risky | +305 | +439 | Ramos BJJ will be a threat to any opponent. It's his only out here and fairly unlikely given Makhachev's tight style. |
| Takashi Sato | 7100 | Belal Muhammad | Risky | +320 | +497? | Saito has a knack for coming back in a losing effort to KO opponents. |
| Lerone Murphy | 6700 | Zubaira Tukhugov | Risky | +290 | +445 | Murphy is a decent prospect but this is too much too soon. |
Cash Plays: Khabib/Poirier stack, Tuhkugov, Blaydes, Muhammad, Azaitar, Calderwood
| Example Cash Lineups | |
| Fighter | Cash |
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | $9,300 |
| Dustin Poirier | $6,900 |
| Zubaira Tukhugov | $9,500 |
| Ottman Azaitar | $8,900 |
| Joanne Calderwood | $7,400 |
| Muslim Salikhov | $8,000 |
GPP Plays: Madge, Barboza, Jojua, Akhmedov, Salikhov or Taleb, Ferreira
| Example GPP Lineups | |
| Fighter | Salary |
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | $9,300 |
| Dom Madge | $8,700 |
| Edson Barboza | $8,500 |
| Liana Jojua | $8,400 |
| Diego Ferreira | $7,200 |
| Zak Cummings | $7,900 |
Favorite Bets: Nurmagomedov -410, Azaitar -230, Calderwood +195
Favorite Props: Madge ITD +155, Jojua ITD +320, Tuhkugov ITD +175
Live Dogs: Calderwood, Ferreira, Felder, Cummings, Salikhov, Saito, Poirier
Stats & Picks
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | vs | Dustin Poirier |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 27-0-0 | Record | Record: 25-5-0 (1 NC) |
| | Knockouts | 12 TKO (48%) |
| | Subs | 7 Submissions (28%) |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +355 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Edson Barboza | vs | Paul Felder |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 20-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| 12 TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 10 TKO (63%) |
| 1 Submissions (5%) | Subs | 1 Submissions (6%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Islam Makhachev | vs | Davi Ramos |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 3 TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 1 TKO (10%) |
| 7 Submissions (41%) | Subs | 7 Submissions (70%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +305 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Curtis Blaydes | vs | Shamil Abdurakhimov |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 11-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-4-0 |
| 8 TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 9 TKO (45%) |
| 0 Submissions (0%) | Subs | 4 Submissions (20%) |
| -475 | Vegas Odds | +420 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Mairbek Taisumov | vs | Diego Ferreira |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 27-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
| 15 TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 3 TKO (20%) |
| 9 Submissions (33%) | Subs | 6 Submissions (40%) |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Joanne Calderwood | vs | Andrea Lee |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 5 TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 TKO (18%) |
| 1 Submissions (8%) | Subs | 4 Submissions (36%) |
| +195 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Zubaira Tukhugov | vs | Lerone Murphy |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 6 TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 TKO (63%) |
| 1 Submissions (6%) | Subs | 0 Submissions (0%) |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Liana Jojua | vs | Sarah Moras |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-6-0 |
| 1 TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 2 TKO (40%) |
| 5 Submissions (71%) | Subs | 2 Submissions (40%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | vs | Teemu Packalen |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 7 TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 2 TKO (25%) |
| 3 Submissions (27%) | Subs | 6 Submissions (75%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Belal Muhammad | vs | Takashi Sato |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
| 4 TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 10 TKO (67%) |
| 0 Submissions (0%) | Subs | 2 Submissions (13%) |
| -355 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Nordine Taleb | vs | Muslim Salikhov |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
| 7 TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 11 TKO (79%) |
| 0 Submissions (0%) | Subs | 2 Submissions (14%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Omari Akhmedov | vs | Zak Cummings |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 18-4-1 | Record | Record: 23-6-0 |
| 7 TKO (39%) | Knockouts | 5 TKO (22%) |
| 5 Submissions (28%) | Subs | 12 Submissions (52%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Don Madge | vs | Fares Ziam |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-3-1 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 5 TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 TKO (63%) |
| 4 Submissions (40%) | Subs | 3 Submissions (38%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
